Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Research article
11 May 2022
Research article |  | 11 May 2022

The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought

William Rust, John P. Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, Ron Corstanje, and Ian Holman

Data sets

Nonstationary NAO periods on water resources W. Rust, I. Holman, J. P. Bloomfield, and M. Cuthbert

Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.