Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021

Research article 08 Nov 2021

Research article | 08 Nov 2021

Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach

Tongtiegang Zhao et al.

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Cited articles

Beck, H. E., Pan, M., Roy, T., Weedon, G. P., Pappenberger, F., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., and Wood, E. F.: Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, 2019. 
Becker, E., Kirtman, Ben P., and Pegion, K.: Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087408, 2020. 
Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., and Deser, C.: Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 024014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014, 2014. 
Cai, W. and Weller, E.: Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO Teleconnection in a CMIP5 Model Ensemble and Its Relevance to Regional Rainfall, J. Climate, 26, 5139–5149, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00789.1, 2013. 
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., and Cowan, T.: Rainfall Teleconnections with Indo-Pacific Variability in the WCRP CMIP3 Models, J. Climate, 22, 5046–5071, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2694.1, 2009. 
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This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection using the coefficient of determination. Three cases of attribution are effectively facilitated, which are significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection.