Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 10 Sep 2021
| 10 Sep 2021
Improved parameterization of snow albedo in Noah coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting: applicability to snow estimates for the Tibetan Plateau
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Land–Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Land–Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Massimo Menenti
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Rongmingzhu Su
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Land–Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Nan Yao
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Land–Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Weiqiang Ma
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
Land–Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
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Binbin Wang, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Weiqiang Ma, Xuelong Chen, Cunbo Han, Zhipeng Xie, Yuyang Wang, Maoshan Li, Bin Ma, Xingdong Shi, Weimo Li, and Zhengling Cai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-195, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This study reveals distinct patterns in water, heat, and carbon exchange over the Tibetan Plateau. Heat transfer peaks in spring, while water vapor release is highest in summer. Most stations act as carbon sinks, but one in a forested valley is a carbon source, likely due to vegetation loss and human activity. The findings highlight the strong connections between water, heat, and carbon fluxes, offering valuable insights into climate change and weather forecasting.
Minqiang Zhou, Yilong Wang, Minzheng Duan, Xiangjun Tian, Jinzhi Ding, Jianrong Bi, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, and Zhenhua Xi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1293, 2025
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The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a key system that impacts the global carbon balance. This study presents the greenhouse gas (GHG) mole fraction measurement campaign in May 2022 at Mt. Qomolangma station, including ground-based remote sensing and in situ measurements. The GHG measurements are carried out in this region for the first time and used for satellite validation.
Cunbo Han, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, Fanglin Sun, Yunshuai Zhang, Wei Hu, Hanying Xu, Chunhui Duan, and Zhenhua Xi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1963, 2024
Preprint archived
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Wind speed spectra analysis is very important for understanding boundary layer turbulence characteristics, atmospheric numerical model development, and wind energy assessment. However, wind speed spectra studies in mountainous areas are extremely scarce. In this study, using a 15-year time series of wind speed observed by a PBL tower and eddy-covariance tower at a site on the north slope of Mt. Everest, we investigated the characteristics of wind speed and wind speed spectrum.
Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Yingying Chen, Shaomin Liu, Tao Che, Ziwei Xu, Lunyu Shang, Xiaobo He, Xianhong Meng, Weiqiang Ma, Baiqing Xu, Huabiao Zhao, Junbo Wang, Guangjian Wu, and Xin Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3017–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3017-2024, 2024
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Current models and satellites struggle to accurately represent the land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions over the Tibetan Plateau. We present the most extensive compilation of in situ observations to date, comprising 17 years of data on L–A interactions across 12 sites. This quality-assured benchmark dataset provides independent validation to improve models and remote sensing for the region, and it enables new investigations of fine-scale L–A processes and their mechanistic drivers.
Ling Yuan, Xuelong Chen, Yaoming Ma, Cunbo Han, Binbin Wang, and Weiqiang Ma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 775–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-775-2024, 2024
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Accurately monitoring and understanding the spatial–temporal variability of evapotranspiration (ET) components over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains difficult. Here, 37 years (1982–2018) of monthly ET component data for the TP was produced, and the data are consistent with measurements. The annual average ET for the TP was about 0.93 (± 0.037) × 103 Gt yr−1. The rate of increase of the ET was around 0.96 mm yr−1. The increase in the ET can be explained by warming and wetting of the climate.
Peizhen Li, Lei Zhong, Yaoming Ma, Yunfei Fu, Meilin Cheng, Xian Wang, Yuting Qi, and Zixin Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9265–9285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9265-2023, 2023
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In this paper, all-sky downwelling shortwave radiation (DSR) over the entire Tibetan Plateau (TP) at a spatial resolution of 1 km was estimated using an improved parameterization scheme. The influence of topography and different radiative attenuations were comprehensively taken into account. The derived DSR showed good agreement with in situ measurements. The accuracy was better than six other DSR products. The derived DSR also provided more reasonable and detailed spatial patterns.
Pei Zhang, Donghai Zheng, Rogier van der Velde, Jun Wen, Yaoming Ma, Yijian Zeng, Xin Wang, Zuoliang Wang, Jiali Chen, and Zhongbo Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5513–5542, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5513-2022, 2022
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Soil moisture and soil temperature (SMST) are important state variables for quantifying the heat–water exchange between land and atmosphere. Yet, long-term, regional-scale in situ SMST measurements at multiple depths are scarce on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The presented dataset would be valuable for the evaluation and improvement of long-term satellite- and model-based SMST products on the TP, enhancing the understanding of TP hydrometeorological processes and their response to climate change.
Maoshan Li, Wei Fu, Na Chang, Ming Gong, Pei Xu, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Yaoxian Yang, and Fanglin Sun
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-257, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Compared with the plain area, the land-atmosphere interaction on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is intense and complex, which affects the structure of the boundary layer. The observed height of the convective boundary layer on the TP under the influence of the southern branch of the westerly wind was higher than that during the Asian monsoon season. The height of the boundary layer was positively correlated with the sensible heat flux and negatively correlated with latent heat flux.
Yunshuai Zhang, Qian Huang, Yaoming Ma, Jiali Luo, Chan Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Yan Chou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15949–15968, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15949-2021, 2021
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The source region of the Yellow River has an important role in issues related to water resources, ecological environment, and climate changes in China. We utilized large eddy simulation to understand whether the surface heterogeneity promotes or inhibits the boundary-layer turbulence, the great contribution of the thermal circulations induced by surface heterogeneity to the water and heat exchange between land/lake and air. Moreover, the turbulence in key locations is characterized.
Zhipeng Xie, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, Zeyong Hu, and Genhou Sun
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-260, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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Wind-driven snow transport greatly influences spatial-temporal distribution of snow in mountainous areas. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability of blowing snow is in its infancy because of inaccuracies in satellite-based blowing snow algorithms and the absence of quantitative assessments. Here, we present the spatiotemporal variability and magnitude of blowing snow events, and explore the potential links with ambient meteorological conditions using near surface blowing snow observations.
Cunbo Han, Yaoming Ma, Binbin Wang, Lei Zhong, Weiqiang Ma, Xuelong Chen, and Zhongbo Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3513–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3513-2021, 2021
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Actual terrestrial evapotranspiration (ETa) is a key parameter controlling the land–atmosphere interaction processes and water cycle. However, the spatial distribution and temporal changes in ETa over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remain very uncertain. Here we estimate the multiyear (2001–2018) monthly ETa and its spatial distribution on the TP by a combination of meteorological data and satellite products. Results have been validated at six eddy-covariance monitoring sites and show high accuracy.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
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Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Kun Yang, Lazhu, Yaoming Ma, and Broxton W. Bird
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3163–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3163-2021, 2021
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Lake evaporation from Paiku Co on the TP is low in spring and summer and high in autumn and early winter. There is a ~ 5-month lag between net radiation and evaporation due to large lake heat storage. High evaporation and low inflow cause significant lake-level decrease in autumn and early winter, while low evaporation and high inflow cause considerable lake-level increase in summer. This study implies that evaporation can affect the different amplitudes of lake-level variations on the TP.
Maoshan Li, Xiaoran Liu, Lei Shu, Shucheng Yin, Lingzhi Wang, Wei Fu, Yaoming Ma, Yaoxian Yang, and Fanglin Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2915–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2915-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2915-2021, 2021
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In this study, using MODIS satellite data and site atmospheric turbulence observation data in the Nagqu area of the northern Tibetan Plateau, with the Massman-retrieved model and a single height observation to determine aerodynamic surface roughness, temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the surface roughness were analyzed. The result is feasible, and it can be applied to improve the model parameters of the land surface model and the accuracy of model simulation in future work.
Ziyu Huang, Lei Zhong, Yaoming Ma, and Yunfei Fu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2827–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2827-2021, 2021
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Spectral nudging is an effective dynamical downscaling method used to improve precipitation simulations of regional climate models (RCMs). However, the biases of the driving fields over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) would possibly introduce extra biases when spectral nudging is applied. The results show that the precipitation simulations were significantly improved when limiting the application of spectral nudging toward the potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio over the TP.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, 2020
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We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Binbin Wang, Xuelong Chen, Maoshan Li, Lei Zhong, Fanglin Sun, Lianglei Gu, Cunbo Han, Lang Zhang, Xin Liu, Zhangwei Ding, Genhou Sun, Shujin Wang, Yongjie Wang, and Zhongyan Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2937–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2937-2020, 2020
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In comparison with other terrestrial regions of the world, meteorological observations are scarce over the Tibetan Plateau.
This has limited our understanding of the mechanisms underlying complex interactions between the different earth spheres with heterogeneous land surface conditions.
The release of this continuous and long-term dataset with high temporal resolution is expected to facilitate broad multidisciplinary communities in understanding key processes on the
Third Pole of the world.
Felix Nieberding, Christian Wille, Gerardo Fratini, Magnus O. Asmussen, Yuyang Wang, Yaoming Ma, and Torsten Sachs
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2705-2020, 2020
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We present the first long-term eddy covariance CO2 and H2O flux measurements from the large but underrepresented alpine steppe ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. We applied careful corrections and rigorous quality filtering and analyzed the turbulent flow regime to provide meaningful fluxes. This comprehensive data set allows potential users to put the gas flux dynamics into context with ecosystem properties and potential flux drivers and allows for comparisons with other data sets.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Kun Yang, Zhu La, Yaoming Ma, and Broxton W. Bird
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-421, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
X. Chen, Z. Su, and Y. Ma
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W13, 1729–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1729-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W13-1729-2019, 2019
Lei Zhong, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Yunfei Fu, Yuanyuan Hu, Xian Wang, Meilin Cheng, and Nan Ge
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5529–5541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5529-2019, 2019
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Fine-temporal-resolution turbulent heat fluxes at the plateau scale have significant importance for studying diurnal variation characteristics of atmospheric boundary and weather systems in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings. Time series of land surface heat fluxes with high temporal resolution over the entire TP were derived. The derived surface heat fluxes proved to be in good agreement with in situ measurements and were superior to GLDAS flux products.
Xintong Chen, Shichang Kang, Zhiyuan Cong, Junhua Yang, and Yaoming Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12859–12875, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12859-2018, 2018
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To understand the impact of transboundary atmospheric black carbon on the Mt. Everest region and depict the transport pathways in different spatiotemporal scales, we first investigated the concentration level, temporal variation, and sources of black carbon based on high-resolution (2-year) measurements at Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) Station (4276 m a.s.l.). Next, the WRF-Chem simulations were used to reveal the transport mechanisms of black carbon from southern Asia to the Mt. Everest region.
Xiufeng Yin, Shichang Kang, Benjamin de Foy, Yaoming Ma, Yindong Tong, Wei Zhang, Xuejun Wang, Guoshuai Zhang, and Qianggong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10557–10574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10557-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10557-2018, 2018
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Total gaseous mercury concentrations were measured at Nam Co Station on the inland Tibetan Plateau for ~ 3 years. The mean concentration of TGM during the entire monitoring period was 1.33 ± 0.24 ngm-3, ranking it the lowest in China and indicating the pristine atmospheric environment of the inland Tibetan Plateau. Variation of TGM at Nam Co was affected by regional surface reemission, vertical mixing and long-range transported atmospheric mercury, which was associated with the Indian monsoon.
Xiufeng Yin, Shichang Kang, Benjamin de Foy, Zhiyuan Cong, Jiali Luo, Lang Zhang, Yaoming Ma, Guoshuai Zhang, Dipesh Rupakheti, and Qianggong Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11293–11311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11293-2017, 2017
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We presented 5-year surface ozone measurements at Nam Co in the inland Tibetan Plateau and made a synthesis comparison of diurnal and seasonal patterns on regional and hemispheric scales. Surface ozone at Nam Co is mainly dominated by natural processes and is less influenced by stratospheric intrusions and human activities than on the rim of the Tibetan Plateau. Ozone at Nam Co is representative of background that is valuable for studying ozone-related effects on large scales.
Jian Peng, Alexander Loew, Xuelong Chen, Yaoming Ma, and Zhongbo Su
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3167-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3167-2016, 2016
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The Tibetan Plateau plays a major role in regional and global climate. The knowledge of latent heat flux can help to better describe the complex interactions between land and atmosphere. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed cross-comparison of existing latent heat flux products over the TP. The results highlight the recently developed latent heat product – High Resolution Land Surface Parameters from Space (HOLAPS).
C. Xu, Y. M. Ma, C. You, and Z. K. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12065–12078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12065-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12065-2015, 2015
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Different monthly variation patterns of aerosol optical depth are observed over the southern and northern Tibetan Plateau (TP). A dividing line of higher dust occurrence in the northern TP and lower dust occurrence in the southern TP can be observed clearly at an altitude of 6-8km. The different seasonal variation patterns between the northern and southern TP are due to many factors, including the emission sources, high-altitude terrain and atmospheric circulation.
T. Gerken, W. Babel, M. Herzog, K. Fuchs, F. Sun, Y. Ma, T. Foken, and H.-F. Graf
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4023–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4023-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4023-2015, 2015
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Surface moisture is an important control for the development of clouds and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau. While dry surface conditions do not provided enough water for the development of precipitation and convection, wet surface conditions lead to increased cloud cover and a decrease in solar irradiation, which also reduces convection development. It was found that intermediate soil moistures are associated with the strongest convection.
W. Yu, L. Tian, Y. Ma, B. Xu, and D. Qu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10251–10262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10251-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10251-2015, 2015
F. Salerno, N. Guyennon, S. Thakuri, G. Viviano, E. Romano, E. Vuillermoz, P. Cristofanelli, P. Stocchi, G. Agrillo, Y. Ma, and G. Tartari
The Cryosphere, 9, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1229-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1229-2015, 2015
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Climate-trends data in Himalaya are completely absent at high elevation. We explore the south slopes of Mt Everest though time series reconstructed from 7 stations (2660-5600m) during 1994-2013. The main increase in temp is concentrated outside of the monsoon, minimum temp increased far more than maximum, while we note a precipitation weakening. We contribute to change the perspective on which climatic drivers (temperature vs. precipitation) led mainly the glacier responses in the last 20 yr.
X. Chen, Z. Su, Y. Ma, S. Liu, Q. Yu, and Z. Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13097–13117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13097-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13097-2014, 2014
W. Babel, T. Biermann, H. Coners, E. Falge, E. Seeber, J. Ingrisch, P.-M. Schleuß, T. Gerken, J. Leonbacher, T. Leipold, S. Willinghöfer, K. Schützenmeister, O. Shibistova, L. Becker, S. Hafner, S. Spielvogel, X. Li, X. Xu, Y. Sun, L. Zhang, Y. Yang, Y. Ma, K. Wesche, H.-F. Graf, C. Leuschner, G. Guggenberger, Y. Kuzyakov, G. Miehe, and T. Foken
Biogeosciences, 11, 6633–6656, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6633-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6633-2014, 2014
R. van der Velde, M. S. Salama, T. Pellarin, M. Ofwono, Y. Ma, and Z. Su
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1323–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1323-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1323-2014, 2014
C. Xu, Y. M. Ma, A. Panday, Z. Y. Cong, K. Yang, Z. K. Zhu, J. M. Wang, P. M. Amatya, and L. Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3133–3149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3133-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3133-2014, 2014
Y. Ma, Z. Zhu, L. Zhong, B. Wang, C. Han, Z. Wang, Y. Wang, L. Lu, P. M. Amatya, W. Ma, and Z. Hu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1507–1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1507-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1507-2014, 2014
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Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
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Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
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The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
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We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
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Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
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We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
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Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
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The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
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Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
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Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
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This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
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Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
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Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
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We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, 2025
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Our research highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate disasters in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems, and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
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We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
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This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
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This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
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Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
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Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
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We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, 2024
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We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical / machine learning techniques. Our results show this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote, ungauged areas, suggesting it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
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Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
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Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, 2024
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To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” has great value. It can help anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study reveals that when strong L-A coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the prediction skill for surface air temperature at this lead increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L-A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, leading to improved predictions of abnormally warm events.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
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The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
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We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
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Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
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The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
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Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
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We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
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The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
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We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
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Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
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Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
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This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
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This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Kazeem Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-304, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The global soil information contributes to uncertainty in many models that monitor soil hydrothermal changes. Using the NOAH-MP model with two different global soil information, we show under-represented soil properties in wet loam soil, leading to dry bias in soil moisture. The dry bias is higher and drought categories are more severe in SOILGRIDS. We conclude that models should consider using detailed regionally-derived soil information, to reduce model uncertainties.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
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Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
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A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
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We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
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We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
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Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
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Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
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Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
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Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
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Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
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High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
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In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
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Short summary
Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully...
