Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021

Research article 22 Jul 2021

Research article | 22 Jul 2021

Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Seán Donegan et al.

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Cited articles

Amnatsan, S., Yoshikawa, S., and Kanae, S.: Improved Forecasting of Extreme Monthly Reservoir Inflow Using an Analogue-Based Forecasting Method: A Case Study of the Sirikit Dam in Thailand, Water, 10, 1614, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111614, 2018. a
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016. a
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., and Martel, J.-L.: The hazards of split-sample validation in hydrological model calibration, J. Hydrol., 566, 346–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.027, 2018. a
Baker, D. B., Richards, R. P., Loftus, T. T., and Kramer, J. W.: A New Flashiness Index: Characteristics And Applications To Midwestern Rivers And Streams, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 40, 503–522, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01046.x, 2004. a
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.