Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
Research article
 | 
22 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 22 Jul 2021

Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby

Related authors

Geo-locate project: a novel approach to resolving meteorological station location issues with the assistance of undergraduate students
Simon Noone, Alison Brody, Sasha Brown, Niamh Cantwell, Martha Coleman, Louise Sarsfield Collins, Caoilfhionn Darcy, Dick Dee, Seán Donegan, Rowan Fealy, Padraig Flattery, Rhonda McGovern, Caspar Menkman, Michael Murphy, Christopher Phillips, Martina Roche, and Peter Thorne
Geosci. Commun., 2, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Amnatsan, S., Yoshikawa, S., and Kanae, S.: Improved Forecasting of Extreme Monthly Reservoir Inflow Using an Analogue-Based Forecasting Method: A Case Study of the Sirikit Dam in Thailand, Water, 10, 1614, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111614, 2018. a
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016. a
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., and Martel, J.-L.: The hazards of split-sample validation in hydrological model calibration, J. Hydrol., 566, 346–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.027, 2018. a
Baker, D. B., Richards, R. P., Loftus, T. T., and Kramer, J. W.: A New Flashiness Index: Characteristics And Applications To Midwestern Rivers And Streams, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 40, 503–522, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01046.x, 2004. a
Download
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.