Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Donegan, Seán; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun; Broderick, Ciaran; Foran Quinn, Dáire; Golian, Saeed; Knight, Jeff; Matthews, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Scaife, Adam A.; Stringer, Nicky; Wilby, Robert L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021

Articles | Volume 25, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 7

Research article

|

22 Jul 2021

Research article |

| 22 Jul 2021

Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby

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Final revised paper (published on 22 Jul 2021)
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Preprint (discussion started on 14 Dec 2020)
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'Comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Jan 2021
- AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', Seán Donegan, 09 Mar 2021
RC2: 'Review comments on HESS-2020-604', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jan 2021
- AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', Seán Donegan, 09 Mar 2021

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (18 Mar 2021) by Xing Yuan

AR by Seán Donegan on behalf of the Authors (13 May 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 May 2021) by Xing Yuan

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 Jun 2021)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (04 Jun 2021)

ED: Publish as is (05 Jun 2021) by Xing Yuan

Short summary

We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.