Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 7

Research article 22 Jul 2021

Research article | 22 Jul 2021

Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Seán Donegan et al.

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Latest update: 25 Oct 2021
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Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
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