Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
Research article
 | 
22 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 22 Jul 2021

Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times

Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby

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Latest update: 19 Jul 2024
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Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.