Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3453-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3453-2018
Research article
 | 
28 Jun 2018
Research article |  | 28 Jun 2018

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- and real observations

Wouter Greuell, Wietse H. P. Franssen, Hester Biemans, and Ronald W. A. Hutjes

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, 2014. 
Bhend, J., Ripoldi, J., Mignani, C., Mahlstein, I., Hiller, R., Spirig, C., Liniger, M., Weigel, A., Bedia Jimenez, J., De Felice, M., Siegert, S., and easyVerification: Ensemble Forecast Verification for Large Data Sets, available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=easyVerification, 2016. 
Bierkens, M. F. P. and Van Beek, L. P. H.: Seasonal predictability of European discharge: NAO and hydrological response time, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 953–968, 2009. 
Bohn, T. J., Sonessa, M. Y., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting: Do Multimodel Ensemble Averages Always Yield Improvements in Forecast Skill?, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 1358–1372, 2010. 
Bruno Soares, M. and Dessai, S.: Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe, Clim. Change 137, 89–103, 2016. 
Short summary
This paper presents the development and skill analysis of WUSHP, a system that makes hydrological forecasts for time horizons up to 7 months. Hot spots of significant skill in river discharge were identified in Fennoscandia (from January to October), the southern part of the Mediterranean (from June to August), Poland, north Germany, Romania and Bulgaria (mainly from November to January), and west France (from December to May). Some skill is left at the end of the forecasts.
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