Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jun 2018
Research article |
| 06 Jun 2018
| 06 Jun 2018
Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)
Andreas M. Jobst
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
Daniel G. Kingston
Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
Nicolas J. Cullen
Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
Josef Schmid
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University (LMU), Munich, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Tamara Pletzer, Jonathan P. Conway, Nicolas J. Cullen, Trude Eidhammer, and Marwan Katurji
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a glacier and hydrology model in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) to model the start and duration of melt over a summer in this extreme polar desert. To do so, we found it necessary to prevent the drainage of melt into ice and optimize the albedo scheme. We show that simulating albedo (for the first time in the MDV) is critical to modelling the feedbacks of albedo, snowfall and melt in the region. This paper is a first step towards more complex spatial modelling of melt and streamflow.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Jason E. Box, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Nicolas Bayou, William T. Colgan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Robert S. Fausto, Dominik Haas-Artho, Achim Heilig, Derek A. Houtz, Penelope How, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, Nanna B. Karlsson, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Daniel McGrath, Noah P. Molotch, Bianca Perren, Maiken K. Revheim, Anja Rutishauser, Kevin Sampson, Martin Schneebeli, Sandy Starkweather, Simon Steffen, Jeff Weber, Patrick J. Wright, Henry Jay Zwally, and Konrad Steffen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5467–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) comprises stations that have been monitoring the weather on the Greenland Ice Sheet for over 30 years. These stations are being replaced by newer ones maintained by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). The historical data were reprocessed to improve their quality, and key information about the weather stations has been compiled. This augmented dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2022).
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Jonathan P. Conway, Jakob Abermann, Liss M. Andreassen, Mohd Farooq Azam, Nicolas J. Cullen, Noel Fitzpatrick, Rianne H. Giesen, Kirsty Langley, Shelley MacDonell, Thomas Mölg, Valentina Radić, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Jean-Emmanuel Sicart
The Cryosphere, 16, 3331–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used data from automatic weather stations on 16 glaciers to show how clouds influence glacier melt in different climates around the world. We found surface melt was always more frequent when it was cloudy but was not universally faster or slower than under clear-sky conditions. Also, air temperature was related to clouds in opposite ways in different climates – warmer with clouds in cold climates and vice versa. These results will help us improve how we model past and future glacier melt.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Angus J. Dowson, Pascal Sirguey, and Nicolas J. Cullen
The Cryosphere, 14, 3425–3448, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations over 19 years are used to characterise the spatial and temporal variability of surface albedo across the gardens of Eden and Allah, two of New Zealand’s largest ice fields. The variability in response of individual glaciers reveals the role of topographic setting and suggests that glaciers in the Southern Alps do not behave as a single climatic unit. There is evidence that the timing of the minimum surface albedo has shifted to later in the summer on 10 of the 12 glaciers.
Daniel G. Kingston and Eleanor J. Treadwell
Proc. IAHS, 383, 307–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-307-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
New Zealand droughts are investigated using two commonly used measures: one based on precipitation alone, and one on precipitation minus evaporation. Comparison of these two measures shows that as evaporation increases as a result of anthropogenic climate change, drought events are getting bigger. This trend is particularly apparent in the driest and hottest parts of New Zealand.
Nicolas Massei, Daniel G. Kingston, David M. Hannah, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Bastien Dieppois, Manuel Fossa, Andreas Hartmann, David A. Lavers, and Benoit Laignel
Proc. IAHS, 383, 141–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents recent thoughts by members of EURO-FRIEND Water project 3 “Large-scale-variations in hydrological characteristics” about research needed to characterize and understand large-scale hydrology under global changes. Emphasis is put on the necessary efforts to better understand 1 – the impact of low-frequency climate variability on hydrological trends and extremes, 2 – the role of basin properties on modulating the climate signal producing hydrological responses on the basin scale.
Todd A. N. Redpath, Pascal Sirguey, and Nicolas J. Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3189–3217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Spatio-temporal variability of seasonal snow cover is characterised from 16 years of MODIS data for the Clutha Catchment, New Zealand. No trend was detected in snow-covered area. Spatial modes of variability reveal the role of anomalous winter airflow. The sensitivity of snow cover duration to temperature and precipitation variability is found to vary spatially across the catchment. These findings provide new insight into seasonal snow processes in New Zealand and guidance for modelling efforts.
Todd A. N. Redpath, Pascal Sirguey, and Nicolas J. Cullen
The Cryosphere, 12, 3477–3497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3477-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3477-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS) is evaluated for mapping seasonal snow depth across an alpine basin. RPAS photogrammetry performs well at providing maps of snow depth at high spatial resolution, outperforming field measurements for resolving spatial variability. Uncertainty and error analysis reveal limitations and potential pitfalls of photogrammetric surface-change analysis. Ultimately, RPAS can be a useful tool for understanding snow processes and improving snow modelling efforts.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Monica Ionita, Lena M. Tallaksen, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge, Gregor Laaha, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Patrick Scholz, Silvia M. Chelcea, and Klaus Haslinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the European summer drought of 2015 from a climatological perspective, including its origin and spatial and temporal development, and how it compares with the 2003 event. It discusses the main contributing factors controlling the occurrence and persistence of the event: temperature and precipitation anomalies, blocking episodes and sea surface temperatures. The results represent the outcome of a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO’s FRIEND-Water program.
Pascal Bohleber, Leo Sold, Douglas R. Hardy, Margit Schwikowski, Patrick Klenk, Andrea Fischer, Pascal Sirguey, Nicolas J. Cullen, Mariusz Potocki, Helene Hoffmann, and Paul Mayewski
The Cryosphere, 11, 469–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-469-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-469-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first to use ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to investigate ice thickness and internal layering at Kilimanjaro’s largest ice body, the Northern Ice Field (NIF). For monitoring the ongoing ice loss, our ice thickness soundings allowed us to estimate the total ice volume remaining at NIF's southern portion. Englacial GPR reflections indicate undisturbed layers within NIF's center and provide a first link between age information obtained from ice coring and vertical wall sampling.
Pascal Sirguey, Holly Still, Nicolas J. Cullen, Marie Dumont, Yves Arnaud, and Jonathan P. Conway
The Cryosphere, 10, 2465–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2465-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2465-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fourteen years of satellite observations are used to monitor the albedo of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand and estimate annual and seasonal balances. This confirms the governing role of the summer balance in the annual balance and allows the reconstruction of the annual balance to 1977 using a photographic record of the snowline. The longest mass balance record for a New Zealand glacier shows negative balances after 2008, yielding a loss of 35 % of the gain accumulated over the previous 30 years.
J. P. Conway and N. J. Cullen
The Cryosphere, 10, 313–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-313-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are shown to force fundamental changes in the surface energy and mass balance of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand. Cloudy periods exhibit greater melt due to increased incoming long-wave radiation and higher atmospheric vapour pressure rather than through minimal changes in mean air temperature and wind speed. Surface mass-balance sensitivity to air temperature is enhanced in overcast compared to clear-sky periods due to more frequent melt and a strong precipitation phase to albedo feedback.
D. G. Kingston and J. McMecking
Proc. IAHS, 369, 19–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-19-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-19-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Weather systems that cause floods in the Waitaki River (New Zealand) are investigated by tracing the origin and pathway of "parcels" of air associated with heavy rain. Two weather patterns are found, one causing slow moving rain systems from a sub-tropical origin; the second involving fast-moving westerly airflow. Both are strongly related to a single monthly pattern of atmospheric circulation. This is a promising new insight relevant for ongoing research on prediction of Waitaki river flow.
N. J. Cullen, P. Sirguey, T. Mölg, G. Kaser, M. Winkler, and S. J. Fitzsimons
The Cryosphere, 7, 419–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-419-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-419-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
On the importance of discharge observation uncertainty when interpreting hydrological model performance
A data-centric perspective on the information needed for hydrological uncertainty predictions
A decomposition approach to evaluating the local performance of global streamflow reanalysis
How much water vapour does the Tibetan Plateau release into the atmosphere?
Technical note: Complexity–uncertainty curve (c-u-curve) – a method to analyse, classify and compare dynamical systems
Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Why do our rainfall–runoff models keep underestimating the peak flows?
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Pitfalls and a feasible solution for using KGE as an informal likelihood function in MCMC methods: DREAM(ZS) as an example
Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin
Guidance on evaluating parametric model uncertainty at decision-relevant scales
Quantifying input uncertainty in the calibration of water quality models: reordering errors via the secant method
Sequential data assimilation for real-time probabilistic flood inundation mapping
Key challenges facing the application of the conductivity mass balance method: a case study of the Mississippi River basin
Coupled machine learning and the limits of acceptability approach applied in parameter identification for a distributed hydrological model
A systematic assessment of uncertainties in large-scale soil loss estimation from different representations of USLE input factors – a case study for Kenya and Uganda
Technical note: Uncertainty in multi-source partitioning using large tracer data sets
Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming
A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation
Technical note: Analytical sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation of baseflow index calculated by a two-component hydrograph separation method with conductivity as a tracer
Understanding the water cycle over the upper Tarim Basin: retrospecting the estimated discharge bias to atmospheric variables and model structure
The effect of input data resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in a humid vegetated watershed
Parameter uncertainty analysis for an operational hydrological model using residual-based and limits of acceptability approaches
Technical note: Pitfalls in using log-transformed flows within the KGE criterion
Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty
Transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts
Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Consistency assessment of rating curve data in various locations using Bidirectional Reach (BReach)
The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes
Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting
Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding
Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales
Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model
Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals
Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty
Disentangling timing and amplitude errors in streamflow simulations
Reliability of lumped hydrological modeling in a semi-arid mountainous catchment facing water-use changes
Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria
Accounting for dependencies in regionalized signatures for predictions in ungauged catchments
Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments
Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments
Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model
Uncertainty reduction and parameter estimation of a distributed hydrological model with ground and remote-sensing data
The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models
Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography
The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Jannis M. Hoch, Gemma Coxon, Nick C. van de Giesen, and Rolf W. Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5011–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For users of hydrological models, model suitability often hinges on how well simulated outputs match observed discharge. This study highlights the importance of including discharge observation uncertainty in hydrological model performance assessment. We highlight the need to account for this uncertainty in model comparisons and introduce a practical method suitable for any observational time series with available uncertainty estimates.
Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Sepp Hochreiter, and Daniel Klotz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4099–4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the impact of temporal and spatial information on the uncertainty estimation of streamflow forecasts. The study emphasizes the importance of data updates and global information for precise uncertainty estimates. We use conformal prediction to show that recent data enhance the estimates, even if only available infrequently. Local data yield reasonable average estimations but fall short for peak-flow events. The use of global data significantly improves these predictions.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Zexin Chen, Yu Tian, Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3597–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The local performance plays a critical part in practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. This paper develops a decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow analysis at different timescales. The reanalysis is observed to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. Also, the local performance is shown to be primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality, longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope.
Chaolei Zheng, Li Jia, Guangcheng Hu, Massimo Menenti, and Joris Timmermans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Significant changes are occurring in the Tibetan Plateau, but the amount and variations of evapotranspiration (ET) are with large uncertainty. This study compares 22 ET products and finds that the mean annual ET is 350.34 mm/yr over the Tibetan Plateau, with soil water contribute most to total ET. It also find most products showing an increasing trend. It provides a comprehensive study that supports further ET estimation and potential use of ET data for relevant water and climate studies.
Uwe Ehret and Pankaj Dey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2591–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the
c-u-curvemethod to characterize dynamical (time-variable) systems of all kinds.
Uis for uncertainty and expresses how well a system can be predicted in a given period of time.
Cis for complexity and expresses how predictability differs between different periods, i.e. how well predictability itself can be predicted. The method helps to better classify and compare dynamical systems across a wide range of disciplines, thus facilitating scientific collaboration.
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This publication provides an introduction to the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox. CURE offers workflows for a variety of uncertainty estimation methods. One of its most important features is the requirement that all of the assumptions on which a workflow analysis depends be defined. This facilitates communication with potential users of an analysis. An audit trail log is produced automatically from a workflow for future reference.
András Bárdossy and Faizan Anwar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1987–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the fact that the large river flows forecasted by the models show an underestimation that is inversely related to the number of locations where precipitation is recorded, which is independent of the model. The higher the number of points where the amount of precipitation is recorded, the better the estimate of the river flows.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Yan Liu, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Matías Mudarra, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5341–5355, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt the informal Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) with a gamma distribution to apply it as an informal likelihood function in the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis DREAM(ZS) method. Our adapted approach performs as well as the formal likelihood function for exploring posterior distributions of model parameters. The adapted KGE is superior to the formal likelihood function for calibrations combining multiple observations with different lengths, frequencies and units.
Silvana Bolaños Chavarría, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, and Teresita Betancur Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4323–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using total water storage (TWS) from GRACE satellites, we assess the reliability of global hydrological and land surface models over a medium-sized tropical basin with a well-developed gauging network. We find the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term trends. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, offering a useful tool to improve global models in tropical basins.
Jared D. Smith, Laurence Lin, Julianne D. Quinn, and Lawrence E. Band
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2519–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Watershed models are used to simulate streamflow and water quality, and to inform siting and sizing decisions for runoff and nutrient control projects. Data are limited for many watershed processes that are represented in such models, which requires selecting the most important processes to be calibrated. We show that this selection should be based on decision-relevant metrics at the spatial scales of interest for the control projects. This should enable more robust project designs.
Xia Wu, Lucy Marshall, and Ashish Sharma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1203–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Decomposing parameter and input errors in model calibration is a considerable challenge. This study transfers the direct estimation of an input error series to their rank estimation and develops a new algorithm, i.e., Bayesian error analysis with reordering (BEAR). In the context of a total suspended solids simulation, two synthetic studies and a real study demonstrate that the BEAR method is effective for improving the input error estimation and water quality model calibration.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Peyman Abbaszadeh, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4995–5011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, daily observations are assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to update the performance of modeling and improve the flood inundation mapping skill. Results demonstrate that integrating data assimilation with a hydrodynamic model improves the performance of flood simulation and provides more reliable inundation maps. A flowchart provides the overall steps for applying this framework in practice and forecasting probabilistic flood maps before the onset of upcoming floods.
Hang Lyu, Chenxi Xia, Jinghan Zhang, and Bo Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6075–6090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Baseflow separation plays a critical role in science-based management of water resources. This study addressed key challenges hindering the application of the generally accepted conductivity mass balance (CMB). Monitoring data for over 200 stream sites of the Mississippi River basin were collected to answer the following questions. What are the characteristics of a watershed that determine the method suitability? What length of monitoring data is needed? How can the parameters be more accurate?
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, Thomas V. Schuler, John F. Burkhart, and Morten Hjorth-Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4641–4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, 2020
Christoph Schürz, Bano Mehdi, Jens Kiesel, Karsten Schulz, and Mathew Herrnegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4463–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The USLE is a commonly used model to estimate soil erosion by water. It quantifies soil loss as a product of six inputs representing rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, plant cover, and support practices. Many methods exist to derive these inputs, which can, however, lead to substantial differences in the estimated soil loss. Here, we analyze the effect of different input representations on the estimated soil loss in a large-scale study in Kenya and Uganda.
Alicia Correa, Diego Ochoa-Tocachi, and Christian Birkel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5059–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The applications and availability of large tracer data sets have vastly increased in recent years leading to research into the contributions of multiple sources to a mixture. We introduce a method based on Taylor series approximation to estimate the uncertainties of such sources' contributions. The method is illustrated with examples of hydrology (14 tracers) and a MATLAB code is provided for reproducibility. This method can be generalized to any number of tracers across a range of disciplines.
Hongmei Xu, Lüliu Liu, Yong Wang, Sheng Wang, Ying Hao, Jingjin Ma, and Tong Jiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4219–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
1.5 and 2 °C have become targets in the discussion of climate change impacts. However, climate research is also challenged to provide more robust information on the impact of climate change at local and regional scales to assist the development of sound scientific adaptation and mitigation measures. This study assessed the impacts and differences of 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming on basin-scale river runoff by examining four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting in China.
Lorenz Ammann, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Peter Reichert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2147–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The uncertainty of hydrological models can be substantial, and its quantification and realistic description are often difficult. We propose a new flexible probabilistic framework to describe and quantify this uncertainty. It is show that the correlation of the errors can be non-stationary, and that accounting for temporal changes in correlation can lead to strongly improved probabilistic predictions. This is a promising avenue for improving uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling.
Weifei Yang, Changlai Xiao, and Xiujuan Liang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1103–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzed the sensitivity of the baseflow index to the parameters of the conductivity two-component hydrograph separation method. The results indicated that the baseflow index is more sensitive to the conductivity of baseflow and the separation method may be more suitable for the long time series in a small watershed. After considering the mutual offset of the measurement errors of conductivity and streamflow, the uncertainty in baseflow index was reduced by half.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, Yukiko Hirabayashi, and Trung Nguyen-Quang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6087–6108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model bias is commonly seen in discharge simulation by hydrological or land surface models. This study tested an approach with the Budyko hypothesis to retrospect the estimated discharge bias to different bias sources including the atmospheric variables and model structure. Results indicate that the bias is most likely caused by the forcing variables, and the forcing bias should firstly be assessed and reduced in order to perform pertinent analysis of the regional water cycle.
Linh Hoang, Rajith Mukundan, Karen E. B. Moore, Emmet M. Owens, and Tammo S. Steenhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5947–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyzes the effect of two input data (DEMs and the combination of soil and land use data) with different resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of model outputs (the predictions of streamflow and saturated areas) and parameter uncertainty using SWAT-HS. Results showed that DEM resolution has significant effect on the spatial pattern of saturated areas and using complex soil and land use data may not necessarily improve model performance or reduce model uncertainty.
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, John F. Burkhart, and Thomas V. Schuler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5021–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, 2018
Léonard Santos, Guillaume Thirel, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4583–4591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) is a score used in hydrology to evaluate flow simulation compared to observations. In order to force the evaluation on the low flows, some authors used the log-transformed flow to calculate the KGE. In this technical note, we show that this transformation should be avoided because it produced numerical flaws that lead to difficulties in the score value interpretation.
Lei Chen, Shuang Li, Yucen Zhong, and Zhenyao Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4145–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the cumulative distribution function approach (CDFA) and the Monte Carlo approach (MCA) were used to develop two new approaches for model evaluation within an uncertainty framework. These proposed methods could be extended to watershed models to provide a substitution for traditional model evaluations within an uncertainty framework.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Alex J. Cannon, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
Hadush K. Meresa and Renata J. Romanowicz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.
Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4021–4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
Christa Kelleher, Brian McGlynn, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3325–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Models are tools for understanding how watersheds function and may respond to land cover and climate change. Before we can use models towards these purposes, we need to ensure that a model adequately represents watershed-wide observations. In this paper, we propose a new way to evaluate whether model simulations match observations, using a variety of information sources. We show how this information can reduce uncertainty in inputs to models, reducing uncertainty in hydrologic predictions.
Gabriele Baroni, Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2301–2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Three methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in soil properties. The effect on simulated states and fluxes is quantified using a distributed hydrological model. Different impacts are identified as function of the perturbation method, of the model outputs and of the spatio-temporal resolution. The study underlines the importance of a proper characterization of the uncertainty in soil properties for a correct assessment of their role and further improvements in the model application.
Ji Li, Yangbo Chen, Huanyu Wang, Jianming Qin, Jie Li, and Sen Chiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Quantitative precipitation forecast produced by the WRF model has a similar pattern to that estimated by rain gauges in a southern China large watershed, hydrological model parameters should be optimized with QPF produced by WRF, and simulating floods by coupling the WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model provides a good reference for large watershed flood warning and could benefit the flood management communities due to its longer lead time.
Johanna I. F. Slaets, Hans-Peter Piepho, Petra Schmitter, Thomas Hilger, and Georg Cadisch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 571–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Determining measures of uncertainty on loads is not trivial, as a load is a product of concentration and discharge per time point, summed up over time. A bootstrap approach enables the calculation of confidence intervals on constituent loads. Ignoring the uncertainty on the discharge will typically underestimate the width of 95 % confidence intervals by around 10 %. Furthermore, confidence intervals are asymmetric, with the largest uncertainty on the upper limit.
David N. Dralle, Nathaniel J. Karst, Kyriakos Charalampous, Andrew Veenstra, and Sally E. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 65–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The streamflow recession is the period following rainfall during which flow declines. This paper examines a common method of recession analysis and identifies sensitivity of the technique's results to necessary, yet subjective, methodological choices. The results have implications for hydrology, sediment and solute transport, and geomorphology, as well as for testing numerous hydrologic theories which predict the mathematical form of the recession.
Simon Paul Seibert, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3745–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
While the assessment of "vertical" (magnitude) errors of streamflow simulations is standard practice, "horizontal" (timing) errors are rarely considered. To assess their role, we propose a method to quantify both errors simultaneously which closely resembles visual hydrograph comparison. Our results reveal differences in time–magnitude error statistics for different flow conditions. The proposed method thus offers novel perspectives for model diagnostics and evaluation.
Paul Hublart, Denis Ruelland, Inaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Simon Gascoin, Stef Lhermitte, and Antonio Ibacache
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3691–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores the reliability of conceptual catchment models in the dry Andes. First, we show that explicitly accounting for irrigation water use improves streamflow predictions during dry years. Second, we show that sublimation losses can be easily incorporated into temperature-based melt models without increasing model complexity too much. Our work also highlights areas requiring additional research, including the need for a better conceptualization of runoff generation processes.
Stephen Oni, Martyn Futter, Jose Ledesma, Claudia Teutschbein, Jim Buttle, and Hjalmar Laudon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an important framework to improve hydrologic projections in cold regions. Hydrologic modelling/projections are often based on model calibration to long-term data. Here we used dry and wet years as a proxy to quantify uncertainty in projecting hydrologic extremes. We showed that projections based on long-term data could underestimate runoff by up to 35% in boreal regions. We believe the hydrologic modelling community will benefit from new insights derived from this study.
Juraj Parajka, Alfred Paul Blaschke, Günter Blöschl, Klaus Haslinger, Gerold Hepp, Gregor Laaha, Wolfgang Schöner, Helene Trautvetter, Alberto Viglione, and Matthias Zessner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2085–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow estimation during low-flow conditions is important for estimation of environmental flows, effluent water quality, hydropower operations, etc. However, it is not clear how the uncertainties in assumptions used in the projections translate into uncertainty of estimated future low flows. The objective of the study is to explore the relative role of hydrologic model calibration and climate scenarios in the uncertainty of low-flow projections in Austria.
Susana Almeida, Nataliya Le Vine, Neil McIntyre, Thorsten Wagener, and Wouter Buytaert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The absence of flow data to calibrate hydrologic models may reduce the ability of such models to reliably inform water resources management. To address this limitation, it is common to condition hydrological model parameters on regionalized signatures. In this study, we justify the inclusion of larger sets of signatures in the regionalization procedure if their error correlations are formally accounted for and thus enable a more complete use of all available information.
H. Xu and Y. Luo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4609–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantified the climate impact on river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. Climate projections showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in both catchments. Peak flows are projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in River Xiangxi.
I. K. Westerberg and H. K. McMillan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3951–3968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the effect of uncertainties in data and calculation methods on hydrological signatures. We present a widely applicable method to evaluate signature uncertainty and show results for two example catchments. The uncertainties were often large (i.e. typical intervals of ±10–40% relative uncertainty) and highly variable between signatures. It is therefore important to consider uncertainty when signatures are used for hydrological and ecohydrological analyses and modelling.
T. O. Sonnenborg, D. Seifert, and J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3891–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Geology is the dominating uncertainty source for travel time and capture zones, while climate dominates for hydraulic heads and steam flow.
N. Dogulu, P. López López, D. P. Solomatine, A. H. Weerts, and D. L. Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3181–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, 2015
F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, 2015
T. Berezowski, J. Nossent, J. Chormański, and O. Batelaan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1887–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, 2015
F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Delogu, P. Laiolo, and G. Boni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1727–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, 2015
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
M. Honti, A. Scheidegger, and C. Stamm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3301–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Ackerley, D., Dean, S., Sood, A., and Mullan, A. B.: Regional climate modelling
in New Zealand: Comparison to gridded and satellite observations, Weather
and Climate, 32, 3–22, 2012.
Anderson, B., Lawson, W., Owens, I., and Goodsell, B.: Past and future mass
balance of 'Ka Roimata o Hine Hukatere' Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand, J.
Glaciol., 52, 597–607, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756506781828449, 2006.
Anderson, E. A.: National Weather Service river forecast system – snow
accumulation and ablation model, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), Technical Memorandum, NWS-HYDRO-17, US Department
of Commerce, Silver Spring, MD, 238 pp, 1973.
Auer, A. H.: The rain versus snow threshold temperatures, Weatherwise, 27,
p. 67, https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1974.9931684, 1974.
Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., and Schnorbus, M.: Uncertainties in hydrologic
and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia,
J. Climate, 25, 5711–5730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, 2012.
Boé, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E.: Statistical and dynamical
downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies,
Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643–1655, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602, 2007.
Caruso, B. S., King, R., Newton, S., and Zammit, C.: Simulation of climate
change effects on hydropower operations in mountain headwater lakes, New
Zealand, River Res. Appl., 33, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3056, 2017.
Chang, H. and Jung, I.: Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by
climate change in a complex large river basin in Oregon, J. Hydrol., 388,
186–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.040, 2010.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., Chaumont, D., and Braun, M.: Finding appropriate
bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact
studies over North America, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4187–4205,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20331, 2013.
Chinn, T. J.: Distribution of the glacial water resources of New Zealand,
Journal of Hydrology New Zealand, 40, 139–187, 2001.
Cullen, N. J. and Conway, J. P.: A 22-month record of surface meteorology and
energy balance from the ablation zone of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, J.
Glaciol., 61, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J004, 2015.
Dobler, C., Hagemann, S., Wilby, R. L., and Stötter, J.: Quantifying
different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections in an Alpine
watershed, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4343–4360,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4343-2012, 2012.
Freudiger, D., Kohn, I., Seibert, J., Stahl, K., and Weiler, M.: Snow
redistribution for the hydrological modeling of alpine catchments, WIREs
Water, 4, e1232, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1232, 2017.
Frueh, B., Schipper, J. W., Pfeiffer, A., and Wirth, V. A.: A pragmatic
approach for downscaling precipitation in alpine-scale complex terrain,
Meteorol. Z., 15, 631–646, 2006.
Gawith, D., Kingston, D. G., and McMillan, H.: The effects of climate change
on runoff in the Lindis and Matukituki catchments, Otago, New Zealand,
Journal of Hydrology New Zealand, 51, 121–135, 2012.
Graham, L. P., Hagemann, S., Jaun, S., and Beniston, M.: On interpreting
hydrological change from Regional Climate Models, Climatic Change, 81,
97–122, 2007.
Gudmundsson, L., Tallaksen, L. M., Stahl, K., Clark, D. B., Dumont, E.,
Hagemann, S., Bertrand, N., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Hanasaki, N., Voss, F.,
and Koirala, S.: Comparing large-scale hydrological model simulations to
observed runoff percentiles in Europe, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 604–620,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-083.1, 2012.
Gutjahr, O. and Heinemann, G.: Comparing precipitation bias correction
methods for high resolution regional climate simulations using Cosmo-Clm:
Effects on extreme values and climate change signal, Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
114, 511–529, 2013.
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell,
N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling,
S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P.,
Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P.,
and Yeh, P.: Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance:
Setup and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869–884,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1324.1, 2011.
Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Haerter, J. O., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., and Piani, C.:
Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes
obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models, J. Hydrometeorol., 12,
556–578, 2011.
Hendrikx, J., Hreinsson, E. Ö., Clark, M. P., and Mullan, A. B: The
potential impact of climate change onseasonal snow in New Zealand: Part I –
an analysis using 12 GCMs, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 110, 607–618,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0711-1, 2012.
Hidalgo, H. G., Das, T., Dettinger, M. D., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W.,
Barnett, T. P., Bala, G., Mirin, A., Wood, A. W., Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D.,
and Nozawa, T.: Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to
climate change in the western United States, J. Climate, 22, 3838–3855,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2470.1, 2009.
Hughes, D. A., Kingston, D. G., and Todd, M. C.: Uncertainty in water
resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate
change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 931–941,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-931-2011, 2011.
Jiang, Y., Liu, C., Huang, C., and Wu, X.: Improved particle swarm algorithm
for hydrological parameter optimization, Appl. Math. Comput., 217,
3207–3215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2010.08.053, 2010.
Jiménez Cisneros, B. E., Oki, T., Arnell, N. W., Benito, G., Cogley, J.
G., Döll, P., Jiang, T., and Mwakalila, S. S.: Freshwater resources, In:
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global
and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M.
D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C.,
Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L.
L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA, 229–269, 2014.
Jobst, A. M.: The potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of
the Clutha/Mata-Au catchment, PhD thesis, Department of Geography, University
of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, 334 pp., 2017.
Jobst, A. M., Kingston, D. G., Cullen, N. J., and Sirguey, P.: Combining
thin-plate spline interpolation with a lapse rate model to produce daily air
temperature estimates in a data-sparse alpine catchment, Int. J. Climatol.,
37, 214–229, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4699, 2017.
Jung, I., Moradkhani, H., and Chang, H.: Uncertainty assessment of climate
change impacts for hydrologically distinct river basins, J. Hydrol.,
466–467, 73–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.08.002, 2012.
Kay, A. L. and Davies, H. N.: Calculating potential evaporation from climate
model data: a source of uncertainty for hydrological climate change impacts,
J. Hydrol., 358, 221–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.005, 2008.
Kennedy, J. and Eberhart, R.: Particle swarm optimization, Paper presented at
the IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks – Conference
Proceedings, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICNN.1995.488968, 1995.
Kingston, D. G. and Taylor, R. G.: Sources of uncertainty in climate change
impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the
Upper Nile Basin, Uganda, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1297–1308,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1297-2010, 2010.
Koedyk, L. P. and Kingston, D. G.: Potential evapotranspiration method
influence on climate change impacts on river flow: a mid-latitude case study,
Hydrol. Res., 47, 951–963, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.152, 2016.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Jimenez, B.,
Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I.: The implications of
projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 3–10, 2008.
Laghari, A. N., Vanham, D., and Rauch, W.: To what extent does climate change
result in a shift in Alpine hydrology? A case study in the Austrian Alps,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.637040, 2012.
Lenderink, G., Buishand, A., and van Deursen, W.: Estimates of future
discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus
delta approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1145-1159,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007, 2007.
Ludwig, R., May, I., Turcotte, R., Vescovi, L., Braun, M., Cyr, J.-F.,
Fortin, L.-G., Chaumont, D., Biner, S., Chartier, I., Caya, D., and Mauser,
W.: The role of hydrological model complexity and uncertainty in climate
change impact assessment, Adv. Geosci., 21, 63–71,
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-21-63-2009, 2009.
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Shrestha, A. B, and
Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology:
Sources, Shifts and Extremes, PLOS ONE, 11, e0165630,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165630, 2016.
Mandal, S. and Simonovic, S. P.: Quantification of uncertainty in the
assessment of future streamflow under changing climate conditions, Hydrol.
Process., 31, 2076–2094, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11174, 2017.
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J.,
Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema,
V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and
Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent
developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user,
Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009rg000314, 2010.
Marke, T., Mauser, W., Pfeiffer, A., and Zängl, G.: A pragmatic approach
for the downscaling and bias correction of regional climate simulations:
evaluation in hydrological modeling, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 759–770,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-759-2011, 2011.
Ministry for the Environment: Climate change effects and impacts assessment.
A guidance manual for local government in New Zealand, 2nd Edn., prepared by:
Mullan, B., Wratt, D., Dean, S., Hollis, M. (NIWA), Allan, S., Williams, T.
(MWH NZ Ltd), and Kenny, G. (Earthwise Consulting Ltd), in consultation with
Ministry for the Environment, NIWA Client Report No. WLG2007/62., 156 pp.,
2008.
Ministry for the Environment: Climate Change Projections for New Zealand:
Atmosphere projections based on simulations from the IPCC Fifth Assessment,
prepared by: Mullan, B., Sood, A., and Stuart, S. (NIWA), Wellington,
127 pp., 2016.
Mpelasoka, F. S. and Chiew, F. H. S.: Influence of rainfall scenario
construction methods on runoff projections, J. Hydrometeorol., 10,
1168–1183, 2009.
Muerth, M. J., St-Denis, G. B., Ludwig, R., and Caya, D.: Evaluation of
different sources of uncertainty in climate change impact research using a
hydro-climatic model ensemble, edited by: Seppelt, R., Voinov, A. A., Lange,
S., and Bankamp, D., International Environmental Modelling and Software
Society (iEMSs) 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and
Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under
Uncertainty, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany, 2012.
Muerth, M. J., Gauvin St-Denis, B., Ricard, S., Velázquez, J. A., Schmid,
J., Minville, M., Caya, D., Chaumont, D., Ludwig, R., and Turcotte, R.: On
the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate
change impacts on river runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1189–1204,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1189-2013, 2013.
Murray, D. L.: Regional hydrology of the Clutha River, Journal of Hydrology
New Zealand, 14, 83–98, 1975.
Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J., Terzago, S., and Provenzale, A.:
Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view, Clim. Dynam., 45,
21–45, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2341-z, 2014.
Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D. A., Stott, P. A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A. G.
J., Lohmann, D., and Allen, M. R.: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution
to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000, Nature, 470, 382–385,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09762, 2011.
Piao, S., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z., Peng, S., Li, J., Zhou, L., Liu,
H., Ma, Y., Ding, Y., Friedlingstein, P., Liu, C., Tan, K., Yu, Y., Zhang,
T., and Fang, J.: The impacts of climate change on water resources and
agriculture in China, Nature, 467, 43–51, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364, 2010.
Poyck, S., Hendrikx, J., McMillan, H., Hreinsson, E. Ö., and Woods, R.:
Combined snow and streamflow modelling to estimate impacts of climate change
on water resources in the Clutha River, New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology New
Zealand, 50, 293–311, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0711-1, 2011.
Prowse, T. D. and Owens, I. F.: Energy balance over melting snow, Craigieburn
Range, New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology New Zealand, 21, 133–147, 1982.
Prudhomme, C. and Davies, H.: Assessing uncertainties in climate change
impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: Future climate,
Climatic Change, 93, 197–222, 2009.
Rosenzweig, C., Casassa, G., Karoly, D. J., Imeson, A., Liu, C., Menzel, A.,
Rawlins, S., Root, T. L., Seguin, B., and Tryjanowski P.: Assessment of
observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems, in: Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P.,
van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 79–131, 2007.
Schulla, J.: Model description WaSiM, Technical report, available at:
http://wasim.ch (last access: 5 June 2018), 324 pp., 2012.
Sims, C. and Orwin, J. F.: Snowmelt generation on a hydrologically sensitive
mountain range, Pisa Range, Central Otago, New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology
New Zealand, 50, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2216, 2011.
Srinivasan, M. S., Schmidt, J., Poyck, S., and Hreinsson, E.: Irrigation
reliability under climate change scenarios: A modeling investigation in a
river-based irrigation scheme in New Zealand, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 47,
1261–1274, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00568.x, 2011.
Tait, A. B., Sood, A., Mullan, B., Stuart, S., Bodeker, G., Kremser, S., and
Lewis, J.: Updated climate change projections for New Zealand for use in
impact studies, Synthesis report RA1, Climate Changes, Impacts and
Implications (CCII) for New Zealand to 2100, MBIE contract C01X1225, 18 pp.,
2016.
Teng, J., Vaze, J., Chiew, F. H. S., Wang, B., and Perraud, J. M.: Estimating
the relative uncertainties sourced from GCMs and hydrological models in
modeling climate change impact on runoff, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 122–139,
2012.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Regional Climate Models for hydrological
impact studies at the catchment scale: A review of recent modeling
strategies, Geography Compass, 4, 834–860, 2010.
Thompson, J. R., Green, A. J., Kingston, D. G., and Gosling, S. N.:
Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River
using multiple GCMs and hydrological models, J. Hydrol., 486, 1–30, 2013.
Thompson, J. R., Green, A. J., and Kingston, D. G.: Potential
evapotranspiration-related uncertainty in climate change impacts on river
flow: An assessment for the Mekong River basin, J. Hydrol., 510, 259–279,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.010, 2014.
Troin, M., Poulin, A., Baraer, M., and Brissette, F.: Comparing snow models
under current and future climates: Uncertainties and implications for
hydrological impact studies, J. Hydrol., 540, 588–602,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.055, 2016.
Velázquez, J. A., Schmid, J., Ricard, S., Muerth, M. J., Gauvin St-Denis,
B., Minville, M., Chaumont, D., Caya, D., Ludwig, R., and Turcotte, R.: An
ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to
uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 565–578,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-565-2013, 2013.
Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Heistermann, M., and Bronstert, A.: Climate change
impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections
and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 913–931,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-913-2015, 2015.
Wilby, R. L. and Harris, I.: A framework for assessing uncertainties in
climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK, Water
Resour. Res., 42, W02419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005wr004065, 2006.
Willsman, A.: Annual glacier volumes in New Zealand 1995–2010, NIWA Client
Report, No. CHC2011-050, available at:
http://archive.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/browse-categories/environment/natural-resources/
water-physical-stock-account-1995-2010/annual-glacier-ice-volumes-in-new-zealand-1995-2010.pdf
(last access: 5 June 2018), 2011.
Zammit, C. and Woods, R.: Projected climate and river flow for the
Waimakariri catchment for 2040s and 2090s, NIWA Client Report,
No. CHCH2011-025, 2011.
Zemansky, G., Hong, Y. S. T., Rose, J., Song, S. H., and Thomas, J.:
Assessing the effects of climate change on water resources: The Waimea
Plains, Journal of Hydrology New Zealand, 51, 45–62, 2012.
