Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
Research article
 | 
01 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 01 Mar 2018

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson

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Cited articles

Beckers, J. V. L., Weerts, A. H., Tijdeman, E., and Welles, E.: ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3277–3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, 2016. 
Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, 2016. 
Charles, A., Timbal, B., Fernandez, E., and Hendon, H.: Analog downscaling of seasonal rainfall forecasts in the Murray darling basin, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1099–1117, 2013. 
Clark, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., and Wilby, R.: The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 243–262, 2004. 
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger, F.: Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016. 
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Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
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