Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
Research article
 | 
01 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 01 Mar 2018

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson

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Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.