Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897–921, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897–921, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
14 Feb 2017
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 14 Feb 2017
Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change
Karin van der Wiel et al.
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Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
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Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
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In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia, and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Fire Weather Index. We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
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Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
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In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
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Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
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We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
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Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
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In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. For the large Brahmaputra basin, using precipitation alone as a proxy for flooding might not be appropriate. In this paper we explicitly test this assumption by performing an attribution of both precipitation and discharge as a flooding-related measure to climate change. We find the change in risk to be of similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
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Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
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In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
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In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
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Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
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We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
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Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. For the large Brahmaputra basin, using precipitation alone as a proxy for flooding might not be appropriate. In this paper we explicitly test this assumption by performing an attribution of both precipitation and discharge as a flooding-related measure to climate change. We find the change in risk to be of similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Michiel van Weele, Peter Uhe, Friederike Otto, Roop Singh, Indrani Pai, Heidi Cullen, and Krishna AchutaRao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, 2018
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On 19 May 2016 a temperature of 51.0 °C in Phalodi (northwest India) set a new Indian record. In 2015 a very lethal heat wave had occurred in the southeast. We find that in India the trend in extreme temperatures due to greenhouse gases is largely cancelled by increasing air pollution and irrigation. The health impacts of heat waves do increase due to higher humidity and air pollution. This implies that we expect heat waves to become much hotter as soon as air pollution is brought under control.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
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The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, and H. Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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On 4–6 December 2015, the storm 'Desmond' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. We provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of precipitation events like this. We use three independent methods of extreme event attribution based on observations and two climate models. All methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making events like this about 40% (5–80%) more likely.
J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, 2015
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Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
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The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
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We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
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Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
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Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
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There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
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Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
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High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-218, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We develop a hydrologic modelling based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
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In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
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Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, 2022
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How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning for multi-source precipitation merging over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error in precipitation estimation. This method is robust and may be successfully applied to other areas even with scarce data.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Haung, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-171, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Spatial quantification of the contribution of oceanic moisture to the Tibetan plateau (TP) contributes to reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of enormous paleo archives in the region. Our work systematically quantified the oceanic moisture contribution to TP precipitation, and indicated that the oceanic moisture contribution in winter has been previously overlooked, while the Indian Ocean moisture contribution in summer has been previously overestimated.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
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The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, 2022
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Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
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Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
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Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors in soil erosion. A satellite-based global map of rainfall erosivity was constructed using data with a 30 min time interval. It was shown that the satellite-based precipitation products are an interesting option for estimating rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with limited ground data. However, ground-based high-frequency precipitation measurements are (still) essential for accurate estimates of rainfall erosivity.
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
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In this study, we investigated potentially catastrophic transitions in hydrological processes by identifying the early-warning signals which manifest as a
critical slowing downin complex dynamic systems. We then analyzed the precipitation network of cities in the contiguous United States and found that key network parameters, such as the nodal density and the clustering coefficient, exhibit similar dynamic behaviour, which can serve as novel early-warning signals for the hydrological system.
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
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Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature, and evaporation over saturated land. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bio-climates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty for the hydrological community.
Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, Massimiliano Alvioli, and Pierluigi Claps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1659–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, 2022
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We have analyzed the spatial dependence of rainfall extremes upon elevation and morphology in Italy. Regression analyses show that previous rainfall–elevation relations at national scale can be substantially improved with new data, both using topography attributes and constraining the analysis within areas stemming from geomorphological zonation. Short-duration mean rainfall depths can then be estimated, all over Italy, using different parameters in each area of the geomorphological subdivision.
Mina Faghih, François Brissette, and Parham Sabeti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, 2022
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The diurnal cycles of precipitation and temperature generated by climate models are biased. This work investigates whether or not impact modellers should correct the diurnal cycle biases prior to conducting hydrological impact studies at the sub-daily scale. The results show that more accurate streamflows are obtained when the diurnal cycles biases are corrected. This is noticeable for smaller catchments, which have a quicker reaction time to changes in precipitation and temperature.
Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewart, Kenneth Joseph, and Hugo G. Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, 2022
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The mid-summer drought (MSD) is common in Mesoamerica. It is a short (weeks-long) period of reduced rainfall near the middle of the rainy season. When it occurs, how long it lasts, and how dry it is all have important implications for smallholder farmers. Studies of changes in MSD characteristics rely on defining characteristics of an MSD. Different definitions affect whether an area would be considered to experience an MSD as well as the changes that have happened in the last 40 years.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
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Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
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The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Josias Láng-Ritter, Marc Berenguer, Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, and Daniel Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, 2022
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During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
Junjiang Liu, Xing Yuan, Junhan Zeng, Yang Jiao, Yong Li, Lihua Zhong, and Ling Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, 2022
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Hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts with the CSSPv2 land surface model and ECMWF meteorological forecasts reduce both the probabilistic and deterministic forecast error compared with the ensemble streamflow prediction approach during the first week. The deterministic forecast error can be further reduced in the first 72 h when combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The forecast skill for LSTM using only historical observations drops sharply after the first 24 h.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6523–6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, 2021
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Using a statistical model that can also take complex systems into account, the most important factors affecting wheat yield in Germany are determined. Different spatial damage potentials are taken into account. In many parts of Germany, yield losses are caused by too much soil water in spring. Negative heat effects as well as damaging soil drought are identified especially for north-eastern Germany. The model is able to explain years with exceptionally high yields (2014) and losses (2003, 2018).
Sara Cloux, Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6465–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, 2021
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We examine the performance of a widely used Lagrangian method for moisture tracking by comparing it with a highly accurate Eulerian tool, both operating on the same WRF atmospheric model fields. Although the Lagrangian approach is very useful for a qualitative analysis of moisture sources, it has important limitations in quantifying the contribution of individual sources to precipitation. These drawbacks should be considered by other authors in the future so as to not draw erroneous conclusions.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
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Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
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Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
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East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, and Yanyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5667–5682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, 2021
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This study proposes an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on a spatial random forest with the incorporation of high-resolution variables. The proposed method is general, robust, accurate and easy to use as it shows more accurate results than the classical methods in the study area with heterogeneous terrain morphology and precipitation. It can be easily applied to other regions where precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy are urgently required.
Lian Liu, Yaoming Ma, Massimo Menenti, Rongmingzhu Su, Nan Yao, and Weiqiang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4967–4981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, 2021
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Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4917–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
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Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
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Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
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We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
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Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
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Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Jon Sáenz, and Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3471–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, 2021
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The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
Kyungrock Paik and Won Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2459–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, 2021
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Climate, topography, and tectonics evolve together. To simulate their co-evolution, a fully coupled computer simulation model between local climate and topography is developed in this study. We simulated how the mountain development enhances local rainfall and its feedback on topography through stronger erosion. We found that the evolution of the coupled system can be more complicated than previously thought. The channel concavity on the windward side becomes lower as the wind grows.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Qian Li, Yongkang Xue, and Ye Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2089–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, 2021
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Most land surface models have difficulty in capturing the freeze–thaw cycle in the Tibetan Plateau and North China. This paper introduces a physically more realistic and efficient frozen soil module (FSM) into the SSiB3 model (SSiB3-FSM). A new and more stable semi-implicit scheme and a physics-based freezing–thawing scheme were applied, and results show that SSiB3-FSM can be used as an effective model for soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over frozen ground.
Erik Tijdeman and Lucas Menzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, 2021
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Low amounts of soil moisture (SM) in the root zone negatively affect crop health. We characterized the development and duration of SM stress across the croplands of southwestern Germany. Development time mainly varied within drought years and was related to the available water-holding capacity of the root zone. Duration varied both within and between drought years and was especially high in 2018. Sensitivity analyses showed that (controls on) SM stress and SM drought characteristics differ.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, 2021
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This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
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Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, 2021
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Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
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Short summary
During August 2016, heavy precipitation led to devastating floods in south Louisiana, USA. Here, we analyze the climatological statistics of the precipitation event, as defined by its 3-day total over 12–14 August. Using observational data and high-resolution global coupled model experiments, we find for a comparable event on the central US Gulf Coast an average return period of about 30 years and the odds being increased by at least 1.4 since 1900 due to anthropogenic climate change.
During August 2016, heavy precipitation led to devastating floods in south Louisiana, USA. Here,...
