Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897–921, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897–921, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
14 Feb 2017
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 14 Feb 2017
Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change
Karin van der Wiel et al.
Related authors
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia, and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Fire Weather Index. We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. For the large Brahmaputra basin, using precipitation alone as a proxy for flooding might not be appropriate. In this paper we explicitly test this assumption by performing an attribution of both precipitation and discharge as a flooding-related measure to climate change. We find the change in risk to be of similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia, and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Fire Weather Index. We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific northwest U.S. and Canada experienced record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found that the event would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, we estimated the likelihood of the event to be about 1 in 1000 years. Such heatwaves would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change, and will become more common as warming continues.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. For the large Brahmaputra basin, using precipitation alone as a proxy for flooding might not be appropriate. In this paper we explicitly test this assumption by performing an attribution of both precipitation and discharge as a flooding-related measure to climate change. We find the change in risk to be of similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Michiel van Weele, Peter Uhe, Friederike Otto, Roop Singh, Indrani Pai, Heidi Cullen, and Krishna AchutaRao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On 19 May 2016 a temperature of 51.0 °C in Phalodi (northwest India) set a new Indian record. In 2015 a very lethal heat wave had occurred in the southeast. We find that in India the trend in extreme temperatures due to greenhouse gases is largely cancelled by increasing air pollution and irrigation. The health impacts of heat waves do increase due to higher humidity and air pollution. This implies that we expect heat waves to become much hotter as soon as air pollution is brought under control.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, and H. Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
On 4–6 December 2015, the storm 'Desmond' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. We provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of precipitation events like this. We use three independent methods of extreme event attribution based on observations and two climate models. All methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making events like this about 40% (5–80%) more likely.
J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
Exploring the possible role of satellite-based rainfall data in estimating inter- and intra-annual global rainfall erosivity
Critical transitions in the hydrological system: early-warning signals and network analysis
Testing a maximum evaporation theory over saturated land: implications for potential evaporation estimation
The role of morphology in the spatial distribution of short-duration rainfall extremes in Italy
Impact of correcting sub-daily climate model biases for hydrological studies
The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes
Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 1: Impact on the climate mean
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 2: Impact on the climate extremes
Compound flood impact forecasting: integrating fluvial and flash flood impact assessments into a unified system
Ensemble streamflow forecasting over a cascade reservoir catchment with integrated hydrometeorological modeling and machine learning
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Machine-learning methods to assess the effects of a non-linear damage spectrum taking into account soil moisture on winter wheat yields in Germany
Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area: contrasting two different models for moisture source identification
Flexible and consistent quantile estimation for intensity–duration–frequency curves
Modelling evaporation with local, regional and global BROOK90 frameworks: importance of parameterization and forcing
Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Hydrological Concept Formation inside Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically based and probabilistic predictions
Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers
Easy-to-use spatial random-forest-based downscaling-calibration method for producing precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy
Improved parameterization of snow albedo in Noah coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting: applicability to snow estimates for the Tibetan Plateau
A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model
Contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin
Mass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central Norway
Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces
Decision tree-based detection of blowing snow events in the European Alps
Changes in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation
Simulating the evolution of the topography–climate coupled system
Using data assimilation to optimize pedotransfer functions using field-scale in situ soil moisture observations
Impact of frozen soil processes on soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over the Tibetan Plateau and North China
The development and persistence of soil moisture stress during drought across southwestern Germany
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology
Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite data
Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves
A two-stage blending approach for merging multiple satellite precipitation estimates and rain gauge observations: an experiment in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting
Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins
Simulation analysis of local land atmosphere coupling in rainy season over a typical underlying surface in the Tibetan Plateau
Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming
Last-decade progress in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the Tibetan Plateau
On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment
Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors in soil erosion. A satellite-based global map of rainfall erosivity was constructed using data with a 30 min time interval. It was shown that the satellite-based precipitation products are an interesting option for estimating rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with limited ground data. However, ground-based high-frequency precipitation measurements are (still) essential for accurate estimates of rainfall erosivity.
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated potentially catastrophic transitions in hydrological processes by identifying the early-warning signals which manifest as a
critical slowing downin complex dynamic systems. We then analyzed the precipitation network of cities in the contiguous United States and found that key network parameters, such as the nodal density and the clustering coefficient, exhibit similar dynamic behaviour, which can serve as novel early-warning signals for the hydrological system.
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature, and evaporation over saturated land. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bio-climates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty for the hydrological community.
Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, Massimiliano Alvioli, and Pierluigi Claps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1659–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have analyzed the spatial dependence of rainfall extremes upon elevation and morphology in Italy. Regression analyses show that previous rainfall–elevation relations at national scale can be substantially improved with new data, both using topography attributes and constraining the analysis within areas stemming from geomorphological zonation. Short-duration mean rainfall depths can then be estimated, all over Italy, using different parameters in each area of the geomorphological subdivision.
Mina Faghih, François Brissette, and Parham Sabeti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The diurnal cycles of precipitation and temperature generated by climate models are biased. This work investigates whether or not impact modellers should correct the diurnal cycle biases prior to conducting hydrological impact studies at the sub-daily scale. The results show that more accurate streamflows are obtained when the diurnal cycles biases are corrected. This is noticeable for smaller catchments, which have a quicker reaction time to changes in precipitation and temperature.
Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewart, Kenneth Joseph, and Hugo G. Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-summer drought (MSD) is common in Mesoamerica. It is a short (weeks-long) period of reduced rainfall near the middle of the rainy season. When it occurs, how long it lasts, and how dry it is all have important implications for smallholder farmers. Studies of changes in MSD characteristics rely on defining characteristics of an MSD. Different definitions affect whether an area would be considered to experience an MSD as well as the changes that have happened in the last 40 years.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Josias Láng-Ritter, Marc Berenguer, Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, and Daniel Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
Junjiang Liu, Xing Yuan, Junhan Zeng, Yang Jiao, Yong Li, Lihua Zhong, and Ling Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts with the CSSPv2 land surface model and ECMWF meteorological forecasts reduce both the probabilistic and deterministic forecast error compared with the ensemble streamflow prediction approach during the first week. The deterministic forecast error can be further reduced in the first 72 h when combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The forecast skill for LSTM using only historical observations drops sharply after the first 24 h.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-642, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-642, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning to merge multi-source precipitation over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error of precipitation amounts. XGBoost is more efficient and has referential significance for other areas with large data amounts.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6523–6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a statistical model that can also take complex systems into account, the most important factors affecting wheat yield in Germany are determined. Different spatial damage potentials are taken into account. In many parts of Germany, yield losses are caused by too much soil water in spring. Negative heat effects as well as damaging soil drought are identified especially for north-eastern Germany. The model is able to explain years with exceptionally high yields (2014) and losses (2003, 2018).
Sara Cloux, Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6465–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the performance of a widely used Lagrangian method for moisture tracking by comparing it with a highly accurate Eulerian tool, both operating on the same WRF atmospheric model fields. Although the Lagrangian approach is very useful for a qualitative analysis of moisture sources, it has important limitations in quantifying the contribution of individual sources to precipitation. These drawbacks should be considered by other authors in the future so as to not draw erroneous conclusions.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-602, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameretization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically-based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in 3 different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from 5 stations in Germany we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Daniele Bocchiola, Michael Lehning, and Mathias Bavay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-562, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-562, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they don't fully reproduce the physics of the involved processes.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-566, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, and Yanyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5667–5682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on a spatial random forest with the incorporation of high-resolution variables. The proposed method is general, robust, accurate and easy to use as it shows more accurate results than the classical methods in the study area with heterogeneous terrain morphology and precipitation. It can be easily applied to other regions where precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy are urgently required.
Lian Liu, Yaoming Ma, Massimo Menenti, Rongmingzhu Su, Nan Yao, and Weiqiang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4967–4981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4917–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Jon Sáenz, and Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3471–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
Kyungrock Paik and Won Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2459–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate, topography, and tectonics evolve together. To simulate their co-evolution, a fully coupled computer simulation model between local climate and topography is developed in this study. We simulated how the mountain development enhances local rainfall and its feedback on topography through stronger erosion. We found that the evolution of the coupled system can be more complicated than previously thought. The channel concavity on the windward side becomes lower as the wind grows.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Qian Li, Yongkang Xue, and Ye Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2089–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most land surface models have difficulty in capturing the freeze–thaw cycle in the Tibetan Plateau and North China. This paper introduces a physically more realistic and efficient frozen soil module (FSM) into the SSiB3 model (SSiB3-FSM). A new and more stable semi-implicit scheme and a physics-based freezing–thawing scheme were applied, and results show that SSiB3-FSM can be used as an effective model for soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over frozen ground.
Erik Tijdeman and Lucas Menzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Low amounts of soil moisture (SM) in the root zone negatively affect crop health. We characterized the development and duration of SM stress across the croplands of southwestern Germany. Development time mainly varied within drought years and was related to the available water-holding capacity of the root zone. Duration varied both within and between drought years and was especially high in 2018. Sensitivity analyses showed that (controls on) SM stress and SM drought characteristics differ.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A two-stage blending approach is proposed for the data fusion of multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs), which firstly reduces the systematic errors of original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. The model is evaluated in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared with the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Cited articles
Allen, R. and Burgess, R.: LSU AgCenter predicts floods cost state at least $110 million in crop loss, The Advocate, http://www.theadvocate.com/louisiana_flood_2016/article_a7689806-6946-11e6-a681-ab59c458f55c.html?sr_source=lift_amplify, last access: 26 August 2016.
American Red Cross: Louisiana Flooding: Red Cross Shelters 10,000+ After Worst Disaster Since Superstorm Sandy, American Red Cross, http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Louisiana-Flooding-Red-Cross, last access: 23 August 2016a.
American Red Cross: Needs of People in Louisiana Remain Great; Red Cross Still Sheltering 7,000+, Serving Thousands of Meals, American Red Cross, http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Needs-of-People-in-Louisiana, last access: 23 August 2016b.
Broach, D.: How many houses, people flooded in Louisiana?, NOLA, http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/how_many_people_houses_were_fl.html, last access: 24 August 2016.
Bromwich, J. E.: Flooding in the South Looks a Lot Like Climate Change, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/climate-change-louisiana.html, last access: 24 August 2016.
Burton, J. and Demas, A.: Six streamgages Set peaks of record and 50 stations were overtopped by floodwaters, USGS, https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-records-historic-flooding-south-louisiana, last access: 22 August 2016.
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED): The Human Cost of Natural Disasters 2015, A Global Perspective; ReliefWeb, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/PAND_report.pdf, last access: 29 August 2016, 2015.
Chen, C.-T. and Knutson, T.: On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models, J. Climate, 21, 1605–1621, 2008.
Christidis, N., Stott, P. A., Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Jones, G. S., Copsey, D., Knight, J. R., and Tennant, W. J.: A new HadGEM3-A-based system for attribution of weather-and climate-related extreme events, J. Climate, 26, 2756–2783, 2013.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A. J., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, London, UK, 2001.
Cutlip, K.: Weather Front, Weatherwise, 66, 2, p. 6, MAS Ultra – School Edition, EBSCOhost, https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2013.762834, 2013.
Dai, A.: Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models, J. Climate, 19, 4605–4630, 2006.
Davies, R.: Louisiana Rivers at Record Levels, President Declares Major Disaster, Floodlist, http://floodlist.com/america/usa/usa-louisiana-rivers, last access: 23 August 2016.
Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J. A., Cooke, W. F., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A., Durachta, J. W., Findell, K., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M., Held, I., Hemler, R., Horowitz., L., Klein, S., Knutson, T., Kushner, P., Langenhorst, A., Lee, H.-C., Lin, S.-J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S., Milly, P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J., Spelman, M., Stern, W., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643–674, 2006.
Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A., Anderson, W., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Benson, R., Dixon, K., Griffies, S. M., Lee, H. C., Pacanowski, R. C., Vecchi, G. A., Wittenberg, A. T., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2. 5 high-resolution coupled climate model, J. Climate, 25, 2755–2781, 2012.
Delworth, T. L., Zeng, F., Rosati, A., Vecchi, G. A., and Wittenberg, A. T.: A link between the hiatus in global warming and North American drought, J. Climate, 28, 3834–3845, 2015.
De Michele, C. and Salvadori, G.: On the derived flood frequency distribution: analytical formulation and the influence of antecedent soil moisture condition, J. Hydrol., 262, 245–258, 2002.
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. J.: An introduction to the bootstrap, Chapman and Hall, New York, 439 pp., 1998.
Eggert, B., Berg, P., Haerter, J. O., Jacob, D., and Moseley, C.: Temporal and spatial scaling impacts on extreme precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5957–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, 2015.
Emanuel, K. and Sobel, A.: Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 447–458, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20032, 2013.
Emanuel, K., Solomon, S., Folini, D., Davis, S., and Cagnazo, C.: Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity, J. Climate, 26, 2288–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1, 2013.
FEMA: Federal Support for Louisiana Continues, $127 Million in Financial Assistance Provided to Louisiana Flood Survivors So Far, FEMA, https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2016/08/23/federal-support-louisiana-continues, last access: 23 August 2016.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W. J., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukaines, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013, 5, 741–866, 2013.
Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Jackson, L. S., and Zelinka, M.: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174, 2013.
Gandin, L. S. and Hardin, R.: Objective analysis of meteorological fields, Vol. 242, Israel program for scientific translations Jerusalem, 1965.
GISTEMP Team: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/, last access: 8 August 2016.
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fuckar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185-4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010.
Harris, L. M, Lin, S.-J., and Tu, C. Y.: High resolution climate simulations using GFDL HiRAM with a stretched global grid, J. Climate, 29, 4293–4314, 2016.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095–1107, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1, 2009.
Hazeleger, W., Wang, X., Severijns, C., Stefanescu, S., Bintanja, R., Sterl, A., Wyser, K., Semmler, T., Yang, S., Van den Hurk, B., Van Noije, T., Van der Linden, E., and Van der Wiel, K.: EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2611–2629, 2012.
Hazeleger, W., Wouters, B., Oldenborgh, G. J., Corti, S., Palmer, T., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., and Storch, J. S.: Predicting multiyear north atlantic ocean variability, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1087–1098, 2013.
Herscher, R.: Flooding in Louisiana Raises Questions About Timing, Urgency of Warnings, NPR, http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way, last access: 29 August 2016.
Higgins, R. W., Shi, W., Yarosh, E., and Joyce, R.: Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis, NOAA, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center Atlas, 2000.
Huang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P. W., Woodruff, S. D., and Zhang, H. M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST. v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 28, 911–930, 2015.
Jia, L., Yang, X., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R. G., Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A., Stern, W. F., Wittenberg, A. T., Krishnamurthy, L., Zhang, S., and Msadek, R.: Improved seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation over land in a high-resolution GFDL climate model, J. Climate, 28, 2044–2062, 2015.
Jia, L., Vecchi, G. A., Yang, X., Gudgel, R., Delworth, T., Stern, W., Paffendorf, K., Underwood, S., and Zeng, F.: The Roles of Radiative Forcing, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Atmospheric and Land Initial Conditions in U.S. Summer Warming Episodes, J. Climate, 29, 4121–4135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0471.1, 2016.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., and Zhu, Y.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996.
Katsman, C. A., Hazeleger, W., Drijfhout, S. S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Burgers, G.: Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt, Climatic Change, 91, 351–374, 2008.
Keim, B. D. and Faiers, G. E.: Heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana: Synoptic interpretations and quantile estimates, Water Resour. Bull., 32, 117–124, 1996.
Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., and Wang, H.-J.: Near-term climate change: projections and predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J., and Neumann, C. J.: The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 363–376, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1, 2010.
Knutson, T. R., Sirutis, J. J., Vecchi, G. A., Garner, S., Zhao, M., Kim, H. S., Bender, M., Tuleya, R. E., Held, I. M., and Villarini, G.: Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios, J. Climate, 26, 6591–6617, 2013.
Krishnamurthy, L., Vecchi, G., Msadek, R., Wittenberg, A., Delworth, T., and Zeng, F.: The Seasonality of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and ENSO Relationship, J. Climate, 28, 4525–4544, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00590.1, 2015.
Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., and Frieler, K.: Increased record breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change, 132, 501–505, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y, 2015.
Lenderink, G. and Attema, J.: A simple scaling approach to produce climate scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 085001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085001, 2015.
Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Oppenheimer, M., and Vanmarcke, E.: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change, Nature Climate Change, 2, 462–467, 2012.
Lin, N., Lane, P., Emanuel, K. A., Sullivan, R. M., and Donnelly, J. P.: Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 8606–8623, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021584, 2014.
Little, C. M., Horton, R. M., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., Vecchi, G. A., and Villarini, G.: Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge, Nature Climate Change, 5, 1114–1120, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2801, 2015.
Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F. E. L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J. M., Hassell, D., Yamazaki, Y. H., and Alle, M. R.: weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1528–1545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2455, 2015.
Menne, M. J., Durre, I., Vose, R. S., Gleason, B. E., and Houston, T. G.: An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 29, 897–910, 2012.
Menne, M. J., Durre, I., Korzeniewski, B., McNeal, S., Thomas, K., Yin, X., Anthony, S., Ray, R., Vose, R. S., Gleason, B. E., and Houston, T. G.: Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3.22, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, http://doi.org/10.7289/V5D21VHZ, last access: 19 August 2016.
Milman, O.: Disasters like Louisiana floods will worsen as planet warms, scientists warn, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/16/louisiana-flooding-natural-disaster-weather-climate-change, last access: 24 August 2016.
Moftakhari, H. R., AghaKouchak, A., Sanders, B. F., Feldman, D. L., Sweet, W., Matthew, R. A., and Luke, A.: Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9846–9852, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066072, 2015.
Msadek, R., Vecchi, G. A., Winton, M., and Gudgel, R.: Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5208–5215, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799, 2014.
Murakami, H. and Wang, B.: Future Change of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Projection by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model, J. Climate, 23, 2688–2721, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3338.1, 2010.
Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A, Underwood, S., Delworth, T., Wittenberg, A. T., Anderson, W., Chen, J.-H., Gudgel, R., Harris, L., Lin, S.-J., and Zeng, F.: Simulation and prediction of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model, J. Climate, 28, 9058–9079, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1, 2015.
Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A., Villarini, G., Delworth, T., Gudgel, R., Underwood, S. D., Yang, X., Zhang, W., and Lin, S.-J.: Seasonal Forecasts of Major Hurricanes and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using a High-Resolution GFDL Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, 29, 7977–7989, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0233.1, 2016.
National Weather Service: Southern and Eastern U.S. Heavy Rainfall, storm summaries 1–19, http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/storm15/storm15_archive.shtml, last access: 23 August 2016.
New Orleans area forecast discussions (PIL = AFDLIX): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/, last access: 24 August 2016.
O'Gorman, P. A.: Precipitation extremes under climate change, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 49–59, 2015.
Otto, F. E., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Eden, J., Stott, P. A., Karoly, D. J., and Allen, M. R.: The attribution question, Nature Climate Change, 6, 813–816, 2016.
Pascale, S., Bordoni, S., Kapnick, S. B., Vecchi, G. A., Jia, L., Delworth, T. L., Underwood, S., and Anderson, W.: The impact of horizontal resolution on North American monsoon Gulf of California moisture surges in a suite of coupled global climate models, J. Climate, 29, 7911–7936, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0199.1, 2016.
Pinter, N., van der Ploeg, R. R., Schweigert, P., and Hoefer, G.: Flood magnification on the River Rhine, Hydrol. Process., 20, 147–164, 2006.
Putman, W. M. and Lin, S.-J.: Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 55–78, 2007.
Rantz, S. E. et al.: Measurement and computation of streamflow: volume 2, computation of discharge (No. 2175), USGPO, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/wsp2175/pdf/WSP2175_vol2a.pdf (last access: 24 August 2016), 1982.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Stafford, R. T.: Stafford disaster relief and emergency assistance act, Public Law, 10, 106–390, 2000.
Scherrer, S. C., Fischer, E. M., Posselt, R., Liniger, M. A., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Knutti, R.: Emerging trends in heavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes in Switzerland, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 2626–2637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024634, 2016.
Schleifstein, M.: Louisiana Flood of 2016 resulted from “1,000-year” rain in 2 days, NOLA, http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/louisiana_flood_of_2016_result.html, last access: 23 August 2016.
Sterl, A., van den Brink, H., de Vries, H., Haarsma, R., and van Meijgaard, E.: An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate, Ocean Sci., 5, 369–378, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-369-2009, 2009.
Strum, B.: Damage Grows from Louisiana Flood, Wall Street Journal, http://www.wsj.com/articles/, last access: 23 August 2016.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Tramblay, Y., Bouvier, C., Martin, C., Didon-Lescot, J. F., Todorovik, D., and Domergue, J. M.: Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall–runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 176–187, 2010.
Van der Wiel, K., Kapnick, S. B., Vecchi, G. A., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Jia, L., Murakami, H., Underwood, S., and Zeng, F.: The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing, J. Climate, 29, 7991–8012, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0307.1, 2016.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., and Cullen, H.: Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 12, 13197–13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, 2015.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F., Singh, R., and Cullen, H.: Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, in review, 2016.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S., and Rose, S.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, 2011.
Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. J.: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066–1070, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06423, 2007.
Vecchi, G. A., Fueglistaler, S., Held, I. M., Knutson, T. R., and Zhao, M.: Impacts of Atmospheric Temperature Changes on Tropical Cyclone Activity, J. Climate, 26, 3877–3891, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00503.1, 2013.
Vecchi, G. A., Delworth, T., Gudgel, R., Kapnick, S. B., Rosati, A., Wittenberg, A. T., Zeng, F., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Dixon, K. Jia, L., Kim, H.-S., Krishnamurthy, L., Msadek, R., Stern, W. F., Underwood, S. D., Villarini, G., Yang, X., and Zhang, S.: On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity, J. Climate, 27, 7994–8016, 2014.
Villarini, G., Goska, R., Smith, J. A., and Vecchi, G. A.: North Atlantic tropical cyclones and US flooding, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1381–1388, 2014.
Walsh, K., Camargo, S., Vecchi, G., Daloz, A., Elsner, J., Emanuel, K., Horn, M., Lim, Y.-K., Roberts, M., Patricola, C., Scoccimarro, E., Sobel, A., Strazzo, S., Villarini, G., Wehner, M., Zhao, M., Kossin, J., LaRow, T., Oouchi, K., Schubert, S., Wang, H., Bacmeister, J., Chang, P., Chauvin, F., Jablonowski, C., Kumar, A., Murakami, H., Ose, T., Reed, K., Saravanan, R., Yamada, Y., Zarzycki, C., Vidale, P., Jonas, J., and Henderson, N.: Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 997–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1, 2015.
Yang, X., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R. G., Delworth, T. L., Zhang, S., Rosati, A., Jia, L., Stern, W. F., Wittenberg, A. T., Kapnick, S., and Msadek, R.: Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL's high-resolution climate prediction model, J. Climate, 28, 3592–3611, 2015.
Zhang, W., Leung, Y., and Fraedrich, K.: Different El Niño types and intense typhoons in the Western North Pacific, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2965–2977, 2015.
Zhang, W., Vecchi, G. A., Murakami, H., Delworth, T., Wittenberg, A. T., Anderson, W., Rosati, A., Underwood, S., Harris. L., Gudgel, R., Lin, S.-J., Villarini, G., and Chen, J.-H.: Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, 29, 1391–1415, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0475.1, 2016.
Short summary
During August 2016, heavy precipitation led to devastating floods in south Louisiana, USA. Here, we analyze the climatological statistics of the precipitation event, as defined by its 3-day total over 12–14 August. Using observational data and high-resolution global coupled model experiments, we find for a comparable event on the central US Gulf Coast an average return period of about 30 years and the odds being increased by at least 1.4 since 1900 due to anthropogenic climate change.
During August 2016, heavy precipitation led to devastating floods in south Louisiana, USA. Here,...
