Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
Research article
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15 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Sep 2017

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife

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Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
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Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
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Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
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Hydro-PE: gridded datasets of historical and future Penman–Monteith potential evaporation for the United Kingdom
Emma L. Robinson, Matthew J. Brown, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Rhian Chapman, Victoria A. Bell, and Eleanor M. Blyth
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4433–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, 2023
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The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates
Alison L. Kay, Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Rosanna A. Lane, and Alison C. Rudd
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2533–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023, 2023
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Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Cited articles

Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Hermanson, L., Scaife, A. A., MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Materia, S., Borrelli, A., and Gualdi, S.: The representation of atmospheric blocking and the associated low frequency variability in two seasonal prediction systems, J. Climate, 27, 9082–9100, 2014.
Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G., and Moore, R. J.: Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 532–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-532-2007, 2007.
Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G., Moore, R. J., and Reynard, N. S.: Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological model to estimate spatial variation in changing flood risk across the UK, J. Hydrol., 377, 335–350, 2009.
Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Marsh, T. J., Brookshaw, A., and Jenkins, A.: Developing a large-scale water-balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain, Hydrol. Process., 27, 3003–3012, 2013.
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Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
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