Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Sep 2017
A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain
Victoria A. Bell
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Helen N. Davies
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Alison L. Kay
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Anca Brookshaw
ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
Adam A. Scaife
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
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Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia J. Bennett et al. 10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017
- Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen 10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe D. Meißner et al. 10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017
- Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability J. Atkins et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07439-0
- Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System S. Sutanto et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0196.1
- Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins Y. Zhou et al. 10.5194/hess-25-41-2021
- North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting R. Hall & E. Hanna 10.1002/joc.5398
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Evaluating soil moisture simulations from a national-scale gridded hydrological model over Great Britain R. Lane et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101735
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. 10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- The role of spatial scale in drought monitoring and early warning systems: a review J. Mardian 10.1139/er-2021-0102
- Complex systems modelling for statistical forecasting of winter North Atlantic atmospheric variability: A new approach to North Atlantic seasonal forecasting R. Hall et al. 10.1002/qj.3579
- Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England A. Kay et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024
- Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales C. Prudhomme et al. 10.1080/02626667.2017.1395032
- Optimizing environmental flow based on a new optimization model in balancing objectives among river ecology, water supply and power generation in a high-latitude river P. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118261
- Skilful Real‐Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018 N. Dunstone et al. 10.1029/2019GL084659
- Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps) K. Förster et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018
- Estimating the added value of GRACE total water storage and uncertainty quantification in seasonal streamflow forecasting L. Liu et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1998510
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
- Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK S. Harrigan et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
- Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0 R. Emerton et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
- Ensemble Skill Gains Obtained From the Multi‐Physics Versus Multi‐Model Approaches for Continental‐Scale Hydrological Simulations W. Fei et al. 10.1029/2020WR028846
- Dynamical–statistical seasonal forecasts of winter and summer precipitation for the Island of Ireland S. Golian et al. 10.1002/joc.7557
- Preparing for peat production seasons in Finland and experimenting with long range impact forecasting H. Gregow et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2019.04.003
- Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities W. Wu et al. 10.1002/wat2.1432
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Calibrating Hourly Precipitation Forecasts with Daily Observations C. Cattoën et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0246.1
- Assessing the skill of the UK Hydrological Outlook D. Boorman & S. Turner 10.1080/02626667.2019.1679375
- The application of sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions for hydropower forecasting R. Graham et al. 10.1002/met.2047
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. 10.1029/2020WR028392
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al. 10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
- Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts S. Sutanto et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13
- Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the U.S. Southwest F. Lehner et al. 10.1002/2017GL076043
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional rainfall response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) across Great Britain H. West et al. 10.2166/nh.2019.015
- Catchment memory explains hydrological drought forecast performance S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen 10.1038/s41598-022-06553-5
- Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia J. Bennett et al. 10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017
- Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen 10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe D. Meißner et al. 10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017
- Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability J. Atkins et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07439-0
- Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System S. Sutanto et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0196.1
- Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins Y. Zhou et al. 10.5194/hess-25-41-2021
- North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting R. Hall & E. Hanna 10.1002/joc.5398
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Evaluating soil moisture simulations from a national-scale gridded hydrological model over Great Britain R. Lane et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101735
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. 10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- The role of spatial scale in drought monitoring and early warning systems: a review J. Mardian 10.1139/er-2021-0102
- Complex systems modelling for statistical forecasting of winter North Atlantic atmospheric variability: A new approach to North Atlantic seasonal forecasting R. Hall et al. 10.1002/qj.3579
- Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England A. Kay et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024
- Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales C. Prudhomme et al. 10.1080/02626667.2017.1395032
- Optimizing environmental flow based on a new optimization model in balancing objectives among river ecology, water supply and power generation in a high-latitude river P. Qi et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118261
- Skilful Real‐Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018 N. Dunstone et al. 10.1029/2019GL084659
- Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps) K. Förster et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018
- Estimating the added value of GRACE total water storage and uncertainty quantification in seasonal streamflow forecasting L. Liu et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1998510
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
- Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK S. Harrigan et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
- Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0 R. Emerton et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
- Ensemble Skill Gains Obtained From the Multi‐Physics Versus Multi‐Model Approaches for Continental‐Scale Hydrological Simulations W. Fei et al. 10.1029/2020WR028846
- Dynamical–statistical seasonal forecasts of winter and summer precipitation for the Island of Ireland S. Golian et al. 10.1002/joc.7557
- Preparing for peat production seasons in Finland and experimenting with long range impact forecasting H. Gregow et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2019.04.003
- Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities W. Wu et al. 10.1002/wat2.1432
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Calibrating Hourly Precipitation Forecasts with Daily Observations C. Cattoën et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0246.1
- Assessing the skill of the UK Hydrological Outlook D. Boorman & S. Turner 10.1080/02626667.2019.1679375
- The application of sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions for hydropower forecasting R. Graham et al. 10.1002/met.2047
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. 10.1029/2020WR028392
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al. 10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
- Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts S. Sutanto et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal...
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