Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017
Research article
 | 
12 Sep 2017
Research article |  | 12 Sep 2017

Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds

Francesco Marra, Elisa Destro, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Davide Zoccatelli, Jean Dominique Creutin, Fausto Guzzetti, and Marco Borga

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Cited articles

Abancó, C., Hürlimann, M., Moya, J., and Berenguer, M.: Critical Rainfall Conditions for the Initiation of Torrential Flows, Results from the Rebaixader Catchment (Central Pyrenees), J. Hydrol., 541, 218–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.019, 2016.
Badoux, A., Andres, N., Techel, F., and Hegg, C.: Natural Hazard Fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2747–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2747-2016, 2016.
Borga M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jacob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: flash floods and debris flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014.
Brunetti, M. T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Luciani, S., Valigi, D., and Guzzetti, F.: Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 447–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010, 2010.
Caine, N.: The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows, Geogr. Ann. A., 62, 23–27, 1980.
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Short summary
Previous studies have reported a systematic underestimation of debris flow occurrence thresholds, due to the use of sparse networks in non-stationary rain fields. We analysed high-resolution radar data to show that spatially aggregated estimates (e.g. satellite data) largely reduce this issue, in light of a reduced estimation variance. Our findings are transferable to other situations in which lower envelope curves are used to predict point-like events in the presence of non-stationary fields.