Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017

Research article 29 Aug 2017

Research article | 29 Aug 2017

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

Hadush K. Meresa and Renata J. Romanowicz

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Preprint under review for NHESS
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Cited articles

Abbaspour, K. C., Rouholahnejad, E., Vaghefi, S., Srinivasan, R., Yang, H., and Klrve, B.: A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model, J. Hydrol., 524, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.027, 2015.
Addor, N., Rossler, O., Koplin, N., Huss, M., Weingartner, R., and Seibert, J.: Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7541–7562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015549, 2014.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., and Schnorbus, M.: Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia, J. Climate, 25, 5711–5730, 2012.
Benninga, H.-J.: Performance and limitations of ensemble river flow forecasts, Thesis for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Netherlands available at: https://www.utwente.nl/en/et/wem/education/msc-thesis/2015/benninga.pdf (last access: 20 August 2015), 2015.
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Short summary
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.