Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017

Research article 29 Aug 2017

Research article | 29 Aug 2017

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

Hadush K. Meresa and Renata J. Romanowicz

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Short summary
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.