Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes
Hadush K. Meresa
Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Renata J. Romanowicz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
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40 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected hydrologic changes over the north of the Iberian Peninsula using a Euro-CORDEX multi-model ensemble P. Yeste et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146126
- Quantification and allocation of uncertainties of climate change impacts on hydropower potential under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels in the headwaters of the Benue River Basin, Cameroon R. Nonki et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2023.118979
- Transferability of regionalization methods under changing climate X. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.030
- A simplified MEV formulation to model extremes emerging from multiple nonstationary underlying processes F. Marra et al. 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.002
- Delineating modelling uncertainty in river flow indicators with representative parameter sets A. Sikorska-Senoner 10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.104024
- Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change H. Meresa et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021
- Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates S. Sharma et al. 10.1080/02626667.2021.1999959
- Responses of Runoff and Its Extremes to Climate Change in the Upper Catchment of the Heihe River Basin, China Z. Li et al. 10.3390/atmos14030539
- Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins S. Huang et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02872-6
- A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain R. Lane et al. 10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022
- Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework S. Gangrade et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130157
- Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain C. Garijo & L. Mediero 10.1007/s11600-018-0143-0
- River flow characteristics and changes under the influence of varying climate conditions H. Meresa 10.1111/nrm.12242
- Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa G. Haile et al. 10.1029/2020EF001502
- Impacts of temporal/spatial rainfall heterogeneities on peak runoff distribution and intensities for an urban river basin of south China Y. Cai et al. 10.1002/rvr2.77
- Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes H. Meresa & Y. Zhang 10.1007/s11269-021-02809-3
- The role of input and hydrological parameters uncertainties in extreme hydrological simulations H. Meresa et al. 10.1111/nrm.12320
- Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland B. Ghazi et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-46199-5
- Climate and rivers G. McGregor 10.1002/rra.3508
- Quantification of model uncertainty in sub-daily extreme precipitation projections A. Majhi et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103967
- Uncertainty sources in flood projections over contrasting hydrometeorological regimes M. Castaneda-Gonzalez et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2137415
- Producing reliable hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs without resorting to meteorological observations S. Ricard et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023
- Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble J. De Niel et al. 10.1007/s11269-019-02370-0
- Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations for the Assessment of Impacts on Precipitation, Flow Rate and Electricity Generation in the Xingu River Basin in the Brazilian Amazon E. Lucas et al. 10.3390/en15207698
- flood forecasting based on machine learning pattern recognition and dynamic migration of parameters Y. Tang et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101406
- Direct statistical downscaling of monthly streamflow from atmospheric variables in catchments with differing contributions from snowmelt S. Huang et al. 10.1002/joc.6878
- Disentangling aggregated uncertainty sources in peak flow projections under different climate scenarios H. Meresa et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128426
- Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels S. Parry et al. 10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
- Assessing extreme precipitation from a regional climate model in different spatial–temporal scales: A hydrological perspective in South America J. Brêda et al. 10.1002/joc.7782
- Uncertainty introduced by flood frequency analysis in projections for changes in flood magnitudes under a future climate in Norway D. Lawrence 10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100675
- Understanding the role of catchment and climate characteristics in the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought H. Meresa et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128967
- The Influence of Flow Projection Errors on Flood Hazard Estimates in Future Climate Conditions J. Doroszkiewicz et al. 10.3390/w11010049
- Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models H. Meresa et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-05152-3
- Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin J. Mackay et al. 10.5194/hess-23-1833-2019
- Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1029/2022JD038025
- The Impact of Rainfall Space‐Time Structure in Flood Frequency Analysis Z. Zhu et al. 10.1029/2018WR023550
- Analysis of high streamflow extremes in climate change studies: how do we calibrate hydrological models? B. Majone et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3863-2022
- Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on peak discharge and flood volume in the Qaran Talar watershed, Iran T. Imani et al. 10.2166/wcc.2023.453
- An Integrated Modeling Framework in Projections of Hydrological Extremes H. Meresa et al. 10.1007/s10712-022-09737-w
- The parametric uncertainty estimation of water and nitrogen transport simulation in a paddy field experiment using HYDRUS‐1D J. Bian et al. 10.1002/ird.2787
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1007/s11600-017-0062-5
- Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States S. Gangrade et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-59806-6
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous...