Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3307-2017
Research article
 | 
04 Jul 2017
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2017

The analogue method for precipitation prediction: finding better analogue situations at a sub-daily time step

Pascal Horton, Charles Obled, and Michel Jaboyedoff

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Cited articles

Ben Daoud, A.: Améliorations et développements d'une méthode de prévision probabiliste des pluies par analogie, PhD thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2010.
Ben Daoud, A., Sauquet, E., Lang, M., Obled, C., and Bontron, G.: La prévision des précipitations par recherche d'analogues: état de l'art et perspectives, in: Colloque SHF-191e CST – Prévisions hydrométéorologiques, Lyon, 2008.
Ben Daoud, A., Sauquet, E., Bontron, G., Obled, C., and Lang, M.: Daily quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the analogue method: improvements and application to a French large river basin, Atmos. Res., 169, 147–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015, 2016.
Bliefernicht, J.: Probability forecasts of daily areal precipitation for small river basins, PhD thesis, Universität Stuttgart, 2010.
Bontron, G.: Prévision quantitative des précipitations: Adaptation probabiliste par recherche d'analogues. Utilisation des Réanalyses NCEP/NCAR et application aux précipitations du Sud-Est de la France, PhD thesis, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble, 2004.
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Short summary
The analogue method aims at forecasting precipitation by means of a statistical relationship with meteorological variables at a large scale, such as the general atmospheric circulation. A moving time window has been introduced here in order to allow finding better analogue situations at different hours of the day. This change resulted in a better analogy of the atmospheric circulation, with improved prediction skills, and even to a greater extent for days with heavy precipitation.