Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
Research article
 | 
05 Apr 2017
Research article |  | 05 Apr 2017

Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

Steve J. Birkinshaw, Selma B. Guerreiro, Alex Nicholson, Qiuhua Liang, Paul Quinn, Lili Zhang, Bin He, Junxian Yin, and Hayley J. Fowler

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Cited articles

Addor, N., Rössler, O., Köplin, N., Huss, M., Weingartner, R., and Seibert, J.: Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7541–7562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015549, 2014.
Bartholomé, E., Belward, A. S., Achard, F., Bartalev, S., Carmona-Moreno, C., Eva, H., Fritz, S., Grégoire, J.-M., Mayaux, P., and Stibig, H.-J.: GLC 2000, Global Land Cover mapping for the year 2000, European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, EUR 20524, 2002.
Bathurst, J. C., Birkinshaw, S. J., Cisneros, F., Fallas, J., Iroumé, A., Iturraspe, R., Novillo, M. G., Urciuolo, A., Alvarado, A., Coello, C., and Huber, A.: Forest impact on floods due to extreme rainfall and snowmelt in four Latin American environments 2: Model analysis, J. Hydrol., 400, 292–304, 2011.
Birkinshaw, S. J.: Technical Note: Automatic river network generation for a physically-based river catchment model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1767–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1767-2010, 2010.
Birkinshaw, S. J., Bathurst, J. C., and Robinson, M.: 45 years of non-stationary hydrology over a forest plantation growth cycle, Coalburn catchment, Northern England, J. Hydrol., 519, 559–573, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.050, 2014.
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The Yangtze River basin in China is home to more than 400 million people and susceptible to major floods. We used projections of future precipitation and temperature from 35 of the most recent global climate models and applied this to a hydrological model of the Yangtze. Changes in the annual discharge varied between a 29.8 % decrease and a 16.0 % increase. The main reason for the difference between the models was the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and and west into the basin.
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