Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Research article
 | 
05 Apr 2017
Research article |  | 05 Apr 2017

Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

Steve J. Birkinshaw, Selma B. Guerreiro, Alex Nicholson, Qiuhua Liang, Paul Quinn, Lili Zhang, Bin He, Junxian Yin, and Hayley J. Fowler

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Short summary
The Yangtze River basin in China is home to more than 400 million people and susceptible to major floods. We used projections of future precipitation and temperature from 35 of the most recent global climate models and applied this to a hydrological model of the Yangtze. Changes in the annual discharge varied between a 29.8 % decrease and a 16.0 % increase. The main reason for the difference between the models was the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and and west into the basin.
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