Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Nov 2015
Research article |
| 24 Nov 2015
Novel indices for the comparison of precipitation extremes and floods: an example from the Czech territory
M. Müller
Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
M. Kašpar
Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
A. Valeriánová
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
L. Crhová
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
E. Holtanová
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
B. Gvoždíková
Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Related authors
Miloslav Müller, Marek Kašpar, and Vojtěch Bližňák
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
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Unlike other studies on wind-precipitation compound events, we used station data from all seasons and found a rather complex distribution of such events within Central Europe. Their frequency is maximal in the cold half-years at mountain stations in the west, because strong winds and heavy precipitation are associated with the same circulation pattern there. Towards the east, warm half-year compound events associated with thunderstorms start to predominate mainly in lowlands.
Blanka Gvoždíková and Miloslav Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3715–3725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3715-2017, 2017
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This paper addresses the evaluation of extreme floods in western/central Europe in terms of different index variants. The comparison of extreme floods' rankings is presented, as well as the main characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions of flood extremes. The results will be used for the assessment of related meteorological conditions. A comparison of major floods with precipitation and circulation extremes will be useful for a better understanding of the causes of extensive floods.
M. Müller and M. Kaspar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-473-2014, 2014
Miloslav Müller, Marek Kašpar, and Vojtěch Bližňák
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Unlike other studies on wind-precipitation compound events, we used station data from all seasons and found a rather complex distribution of such events within Central Europe. Their frequency is maximal in the cold half-years at mountain stations in the west, because strong winds and heavy precipitation are associated with the same circulation pattern there. Towards the east, warm half-year compound events associated with thunderstorms start to predominate mainly in lowlands.
Eva Holtanová, Thomas Mendlik, Jan Koláček, Ivanka Horová, and Jiří Mikšovský
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 735–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-735-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-735-2019, 2019
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We present a methodological framework for the analysis of climate model uncertainty based on the functional data analysis approach, an emerging statistical field. The novel method investigates the multi-model spread, taking into account the behavior of entire simulated climatic time series, encompassing both past and future periods. We also introduce an innovative way of visualizing climate model similarities based on a network spatialization algorithm that enables an unambiguous interpretation.
Blanka Gvoždíková and Miloslav Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3715–3725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
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This paper addresses the evaluation of extreme floods in western/central Europe in terms of different index variants. The comparison of extreme floods' rankings is presented, as well as the main characteristics of temporal and spatial distributions of flood extremes. The results will be used for the assessment of related meteorological conditions. A comparison of major floods with precipitation and circulation extremes will be useful for a better understanding of the causes of extensive floods.
Jiří Mikšovský, Eva Holtanová, and Petr Pišoft
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016, 2016
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Using regression analysis, near-surface temperatures from several gridded data sets were investigated for the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings and to major internal climate variability modes, over the 1901–2010 period. The spatial patterns of local temperature response and their combination in globally averaged temperature were shown and discussed, with special focus on highlighting the inter-dataset contrasts.
M. Müller and M. Kaspar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-473-2014, 2014
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Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5411–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, 2022
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Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Subimal Ghosh, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4431–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, 2022
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The observed response of extreme precipitation to global warming remains unclear with significant regional variations. We show that a large part of this uncertainty can be removed when the imprint of clouds in surface temperatures is removed. We used a thermodynamic systems approach to remove the cloud radiative effect from temperatures. We then found that precipitation extremes intensified with global warming at positive rates which is consistent with physical arguments and model simulations.
Yongwei Liu, Yuanbo Liu, Wen Wang, Han Zhou, and Lide Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3825–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3825-2022, 2022
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This study investigated the wetting and drying of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from variations in soil moisture (SM) droughts. We found the TP experienced an abrupt and significant wetting shift in the middle to late 1990s, not merely the steady trends given in literature. This shift is dominated by precipitation and attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The wetting shift indicates a climate regime change. Our innovative work provides implications for further knowledge of the TP climate.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
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The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
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Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
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Yeonuk Kim, Monica Garcia, Laura Morillas, Ulrich Weber, T. Andrew Black, and Mark S. Johnson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5175–5191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, 2021
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Here, we present a novel physically based evaporation model to demonstrate that vertical relative humidity (RH) gradients from the land surface to the atmosphere tend to evolve towards zero due to land–atmosphere equilibration processes. Collapsing RH gradients on daily to yearly timescales indicate an emergent land–atmosphere equilibrium, making it possible to determine evapotranspiration using only meteorological information, independent of land surface conditions and vegetation controls.
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
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Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Tao Gao, Fuqiang Cao, Li Dan, Ming Li, Xiang Gong, and Junjie Zhan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1467–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1467-2021, 2021
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The rainfall in eastern China is principally concentrated from April–September. Changes are roughly coincident with phase shifts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both the dry (October–March) and wet (April–September) seasons, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) triggers a stronger effect on precipitation in the wet season. The interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability over eastern China is substantially modulated by drivers originating from the Pacific Ocean.
Mahmoud Osman, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, and Martha C. Anderson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-565-2021, 2021
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Our study of flash droughts' definitions over the United States shows that published definitions yield markedly different inventories of flash drought geography and frequency. Results suggest there are several pathways that can lead to events that are characterized as flash droughts. Lack of consensus across definitions helps to explain apparent contradictions in the literature on trends and indicates the selection of a definition is important for accurate monitoring of different mechanisms.
Justin Schulte, Frederick Policielli, and Benjamin Zaitchik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5473–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5473-2020, 2020
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Wavelet coherence is now a commonly used method for detecting scale-dependent relationships between time series. In this study, the concept of wavelet coherence is generalized to higher-order wavelet coherence methods that quantify the relationship between higher-order statistical moments associated with two time series. The methods are applied to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon to show that the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship is impacted by ENSO nonlinearity.
Annu Panwar, Maik Renner, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, 2020
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Here we examine the effect of evaporative cooling across different vegetation types. Evaporation cools surface temperature significantly in short vegetation. In the forest, the high aerodynamic conductance explains 56 % of the reduced surface temperature. Therefore, the main cooling agent in the forest is the high aerodynamic conductance and not evaporation. Additionally, we propose the diurnal variation in surface temperature as being a potential indicator of evaporation in short vegetation.
Patrick Pieper, André Düsterhus, and Johanna Baehr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4541–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4541-2020, 2020
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely accepted drought index. SPI normalizes the precipitation distribution via a probability density function (PDF). However, which PDF properly normalizes SPI is still disputed. We suggest using a previously mostly overlooked PDF, namely the exponentiated Weibull distribution. The proposed PDF ensures the normality of the index. We demonstrate this – for the first time – for all common accumulation periods in both observations and simulations.
Songjun Han and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2269–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2269-2020, 2020
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The complementary principle is an important methodology for estimating actual evaporation by using routinely observed meteorological variables. This review summaries its 56-year development, focusing on how related studies have shifted from adopting a symmetric linear complementary relationship to employing generalized nonlinear functions. We also compare the polynomial and sigmoid types of generalized complementary functions and discuss their future development.
Jianxiu Qiu, Wade T. Crow, Jianzhi Dong, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 581–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-581-2020, 2020
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Accurately estimating coupling of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water content (θ) at different depths is key to investigating land–atmosphere interaction. Here we examine whether the model can accurately represent surface θ (θs) versus ET coupling and vertically integrated θ (θv) versus ET coupling. We find that all models agree with observations that θs contains slightly more information with fPET than θv. In addition, an ET scheme is crucial for accurately estimating coupling of θ and ET.
Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, Barrie Bonsal, Alan H. Manson, and Lucia Scaff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5057–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5057-2018, 2018
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The research started by investigating the 2015 growing season drought over the Canadian Prairies and evolved into investigating the connection between growing season rain deficit in the Prairies and MJO (20–90 days tropical oscillation in convective storms). With warm central Pacific sea surface temperature, strong MJOs in the western Pacific cause Rossby wave trains that propagate downstream and favour upper-level ridges and rain deficits over the Canadian Prairies during the growing season.
Xi Chen and Steven G. Buchberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4535–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4535-2018, 2018
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Based on warm season data from 259 weather stations across the US, we analyze the correlation between precipitation, potential evaporation, and “apparent” potential evaporation (measured by pan evaporation). Over 93 % of the stations show negative correlation between precipitation and
apparentpotential evaporation, but no clear relationship is shown between precipitation and potential evaporation. The collected data points follow the trend of the newly derived Bouchet–Budyko curve.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
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In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Miguel A. Lovino, Omar V. Müller, Gabriela V. Müller, Leandro C. Sgroi, and Walter E. Baethgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3155-2018, 2018
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This study examines hydroclimate variability in northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of its links with global SST forcing; and discusses its impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. Interannual-to-multidecadal variability led to frequent extreme events. Severe floods affected agriculture, livestock productivity, and forced population displacements. Droughts affected water resources, causing water and food scarcity. Increased temperatures reduced crop yields.
Qing Cao, Zhenchun Hao, Feifei Yuan, Zhenkuan Su, Ronny Berndtsson, Jie Hao, and Tsring Nyima
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5415–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, 2017
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This study analyzed the rainy-season precipitation in China influenced by various ENSO types. The precipitation anomalies were investigated under different ENSO types, which may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. The results improve the understanding of linkages between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns. The results suggest a certain predictability of flood and drought related to different ENSO types.
Chia-Jeng Chen and Tsung-Yu Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3463–3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3463-2017, 2017
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Regional hydro-climatic variables are modulated by large-scale, reoccurring climate oscillations. In this article, the authors provide both statistical and physical evidence of how Taiwan’s summertime streamflow is strongly correlated with specific teleconnection patterns dominating cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific. However, such correlation can be strengthened or weakened by notable climate regime shifts, illustrating the pitfall of empirical seasonal forecasting.
Vianney Courdent, Morten Grum, Thomas Munk-Nielsen, and Peter S. Mikkelsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2531–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2531-2017, 2017
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Urban drainage and wastewater systems are heavily impacted by precipitation. Hence, weather forecasts are valuable in improving their management. However, forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, especially when fine model resolution is required, which is the case for urban hydrology. Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers. This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial.
Ruud J. van der Ent and Obbe A. Tuinenburg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 779–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-779-2017, 2017
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This research seeks out to answer a fundamental question about the functioning of the water cycle in the atmosphere: how much time does a water particle spend in the atmosphere? Based on state-of-the-art data, we derive a global average residence time of water in the atmosphere of 8–10 days. We further show in this paper how the residence time of water varies in time and space. This serves to illustrate why it is so difficult to make weather predictions on timescales longer than a week.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
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This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Andrew Chiverton, and Cecilia Svensson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016
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Standardised meteorological indicators are widely used in drought monitoring, but applications to hydrological drought are less extensive. Here we assess the utility of standardised indicators for characterising drought duration, severity and propagation in a diverse set of 121 UK catchments. Spatial variations in streamflow drought characteristics reflect differences in drought propagation behaviour that are themselves largely driven by heterogeneity in catchment properties around the UK.
T. Tang, W. Li, and G. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 27–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-27-2016, 2016
O. Böhm, J. Jacobeit, R. Glaser, and K.-F. Wetzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4721–4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4721-2015, 2015
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
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The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
N. Helbig, A. van Herwijnen, J. Magnusson, and T. Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1339–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1339-2015, 2015
W. J. Shuttleworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4403–4406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4403-2014, 2014
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This paper explains the Matt-Shuttleworth approach clearly, simply and concisely. It shows how this approach can be implemented using a few simple equations and provides access to ancillary calculation resources that can be used for such implementation. If the crop water requirement community considered it preferable to use the Penman-Monteith equation to estimate crop water requirements directly for all crops, this could now be done using the Matt-Shuttleworth approach.
I. Masih, S. Maskey, F. E. F. Mussá, and P. Trambauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, 2014
D. C. Verdon-Kidd and A. S. Kiem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2257–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2257-2014, 2014
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, 2013
P. Brigode, Z. Mićović, P. Bernardara, E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, and P. Ribstein
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Short summary
Three proposed indices combine return periods of precipitation totals or discharges with the size of the affected area. Precipitation indices also determine actual duration of either extreme or seasonally abnormal precipitation events. A unified design of the indices enables one to easily compare inter-annual and seasonal distributions of events, which is demonstrated by 50 maximum events in the Czech Republic during the period 1961-2010, including the June 2013 floods.
Three proposed indices combine return periods of precipitation totals or discharges with the...
