Articles | Volume 29, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-179-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-179-2025
Research article
 | 
15 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 15 Jan 2025

Synchronization frequency analysis and stochastic simulation of multi-site flood flows based on the complicated vine copula structure

Xinting Yu, Yue-Ping Xu, Yuxue Guo, Siwei Chen, and Haiting Gu

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Cited articles

Aas, K., Czado, C., Frigessi, A., and Bakken, H.: Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence, Insur. Math. Econ., 44, 182–198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2007.02.001, 2009a. 
Aas, K., Czado, C., Frigessi, A., and Bakken, H.: Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence, Github [code], https://github.com/vinecopulib/rvinecopulib (last access: 2 February 2024), 2009b. 
Ahn, K.-H.: Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021. 
CRED: 2022 Disasters in numbers, CRED, Brussels, https://cred.be/sites/default/files/2022_EMDAT_report.pdf (last access: 11 May 2024), 2023. 
Bevacqua, E.: CDVineCopulaConditional: Sampling from Conditional C- and D-Vine Copulas, Github [code], https://github.com/cran/CDVineCopulaConditional (last access: 24 March 2024), 2017. 
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Short summary
This study introduces a new method to simplify complex vine copula structures by reducing dimensionality while retaining essential data. Applied to Shifeng Creek, the vine copula built with this method captured critical spatial–temporal relationships, indicating high synchronization probabilities and flood risks. Notably, it was found that increasing structure complexity does not always improve accuracy. This method offers an efficient tool for analyzing and simulating multi-site flows.
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