Articles | Volume 28, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2024
| 31 Jan 2024
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, Italy
Marika Koukoula
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Antonio Canale
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Related authors
Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Francesco Marra, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We highlight an important conceptual difference between the duration used in intensity-duration thresholds and the duration used in the intensity-duration-frequency curves that has been overlooked by the landslide literature so far.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Giorgia Fosser, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-111, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central Europe and found these models have a better representation of wind variability characteristics than standard wind datasets like the New European Wind Atlas, due to different simulation approaches, providing more reliable extreme wind predictions.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3549–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of extreme precipitation probability at various spatial–temporal scales is crucial. We estimate extreme precipitation return levels at multiple scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean using radar data. We show our estimates are comparable to those derived from averaged daily rain gauges. We then explore multi-scale extreme precipitation across coastal, mountainous, and desert regions.
Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Yannis Markonis, Francesco Marra, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Vincenzo Levizzani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared global satellite and one reanalysis precipitation dataset to assess diurnal variability. We found that all datasets capture key diurnal precipitation patterns, with maximum precipitation in the afternoon over land and early morning over the ocean. However, there are differences in the exact timing and amount of precipitation. This suggests that it is better to use a combination of datasets for potential applications rather than relying on a single dataset.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
Judith Eeckman, Brian De Grenus, Floreana Marie Miesen, James Thornton, Philip Brunner, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4093–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4093-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The fate of liquid water from melting snow in winter and spring is difficult to understand in the mountains. This work uses a multi-instrumental network to accurately monitor the dynamics of snowmelt and infiltration at different depths in the ground and at different altitudes. The results show that melting snow quickly infiltrates into the upper layers of the soil but is also quickly transferred through the soil along the slopes towards the river.
Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Francesco Marra, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3378, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We highlight an important conceptual difference between the duration used in intensity-duration thresholds and the duration used in the intensity-duration-frequency curves that has been overlooked by the landslide literature so far.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Giorgia Fosser, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-111, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central Europe and found these models have a better representation of wind variability characteristics than standard wind datasets like the New European Wind Atlas, due to different simulation approaches, providing more reliable extreme wind predictions.
Qi Zhuang, Marika Koukoula, Shuguang Liu, Zhengzheng Zhou, and Nadav Peleg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1002, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how projected urbanization and climate change affect typhoons, which may cause the most destructive natural catastrophes, is crucial. Based on numerical simulations of five landfalling typhoons in Shanghai, China, our results highlight that warming sea surface temperatures significantly shift typhoon tracks with intensified structures (increased size, intensity, and affected time) on the big scale. At the meantime, urbanization further enhances local rainfall intensity.
Mosisa Tujuba Wakjira, Nadav Peleg, Johan Six, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 863–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we implement a climate, water, and crop interaction model to evaluate current conditions and project future changes in rainwater availability and its yield potential, with the goal of informing adaptation policies and strategies in Ethiopia. Although climate change is likely to increase rainfall in Ethiopia, our findings suggest that water-scarce croplands in Ethiopia are expected to face reduced crop yields during the main growing season due to increases in temperature.
Tabea Cache, Milton Salvador Gomez, Tom Beucler, Jovan Blagojevic, João Paulo Leitao, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5443–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new deep-learning model that addresses the limitations of existing urban flood models in handling varied terrains and rainfall events. Our model subdivides a city into small patches and presents a novel approach to incorporate broader terrain information. It accurately predicts high-resolution flood maps across diverse rainfall events and cities (on minute and meter scales) that haven’t been seen by the model, which offers valuable insights for urban flood mitigation strategies.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie Angennes Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain Tchio Tamoffo, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1457–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies were crucial mechanisms behind the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over western central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3549–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of extreme precipitation probability at various spatial–temporal scales is crucial. We estimate extreme precipitation return levels at multiple scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean using radar data. We show our estimates are comparable to those derived from averaged daily rain gauges. We then explore multi-scale extreme precipitation across coastal, mountainous, and desert regions.
Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Yannis Markonis, Francesco Marra, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Vincenzo Levizzani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared global satellite and one reanalysis precipitation dataset to assess diurnal variability. We found that all datasets capture key diurnal precipitation patterns, with maximum precipitation in the afternoon over land and early morning over the ocean. However, there are differences in the exact timing and amount of precipitation. This suggests that it is better to use a combination of datasets for potential applications rather than relying on a single dataset.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Michael Schirmer, Adam Winstral, Tobias Jonas, Paolo Burlando, and Nadav Peleg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rain is highly variable in time at a given location so that there can be both wet and dry climate periods. In this study, we quantify the effects of this natural climate variability and other sources of uncertainty on changes in flooding events due to rain on snow (ROS) caused by climate change. For ROS events with a significant contribution of snowmelt to runoff, the change due to climate was too small to draw firm conclusions about whether there are more ROS events of this important type.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Cited articles
Ali, H. and Mishra, V.: Increase in subdaily precipitation extremes in India under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming worlds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6972–6982, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078689, 2018. a
Ali, H., Peleg, N., and Fowler, H. J.: Global scaling of rainfall with dewpoint temperature reveals considerable ocean–land difference, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093798, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093798, 2021a. a, b, c
Ali, H., Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Lewis, E., and Pritchard, D.: Consistent large-scale response of hourly extreme precipitation to temperature variation over land, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090317, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090317, 2021b. a, b
Ban, N., Rajczak, J., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Analysis of Alpine precipitation extremes using generalized extreme value theory in convection-resolving climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 55, 61–75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4339-4, 2020. a, b, c
Berg, P., Moseley, C., and Haerter, J. O.: Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 6, 181–185, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731, 2013. a
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater system: flash floods and debris flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014. a
Caillaud, C., Somot, S., Alias, A., Bernard-Bouissières, I., Fumière, Q., Laurantin, O., Seity, Y., and Ducrocq, V.: Modelling Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at Climate Scal.: An Object-Oriented Evaluation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model, Clim. Dynam., 56, 1717–52, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y, 2021. a
Cheng, L. and AghaKouchak, A.: Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate, Sci. Rep.-UK, 4, 7093, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07093, 2014. a
Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, Springer-Verlag, Londo., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0, 2001. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., and van de Giesen, N.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3859–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, 2017. a
Dallan, E., Borga, M., Zaramella, M., and Marra, F.: Enhanced summer convection explains observed trends in extreme subdaily precipitation in the Eastern Italian Alps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096727, 2022. a, b, c, d
Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Marani, M., Formetta, G., Schär, C., and Borga, M.: How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023. a
Drobinski, P., Alonzo, B., Bastin, S., Silva, N. D., and Muller, C.: Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean regio.: What explains the hook shape?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3100–3119, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023497, 2016. a
Evin, G., Favre, A. C., and Hingray, B.: Stochastic generators of multi-site daily temperatur.: comparison of performances in various applications, Theor Appl Climatol., 135, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2404-x, 2019. a
Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., Paschalis, A., Peleg, N., Molnar, P., Rimkus, S., Kim, J., Burlando, P., and Caporali, E.: Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate change, Earths Future, 4, 240–251, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000336, 2016. a
Fischer, A. M., Strassmann, K. M., Croci-Maspoli, M., Hama, A. M., Knutti, R., Kotlarski, S., Schär, C., Poberaj, C. S., Ban, N., Bavay, M., Beyerle, U., Bresch, D. N., Brönnimann, S., Burlando, P., Casanueva, A., Fatichi, S., Feigenwinter, I., Fischer, E. M., Hirschi, M., Liniger, M. A., Marty, C., Medhaug, I., Peleg, N., Pickl, M., Raible, C. C., Rajczak, J., Rössler, O., Scherrer, S. C., Schwierz, C., Seneviratne, S. I., Skelton, M., Sørland, S. L., Spirig, C., Tschurr, F., Zeder, J., and Zubler, E. M.: Climate scenarios for Switzerland CH2018–approach and implications, Climate Services, 26, 100288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100288, 2022. a
Fisher, R. A. and Tippett, L. H. C.: Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample, Math. Proc. Cambridge, 24, 180–190, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100015681, 1928.
Fowler, H. J., Ali, H., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Cabi, N. S., Chan, S., Dale, M., Dunn, R. J. H., Ekström, M., Evans, J. P., Fosser, G., Golding, B., Guerreiro, S. B., Hegerl, G. C., Kahraman, A., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Lewis, E., Li, X., O'Gorman, P. A., Orr, H. G., Peat, K. L., Prein, A. F., Pritchard, D. Schär, C., Sharma, A., Stott, P. A., Villalobos-Herrera, R., Villarini, G., Wasko, C., Wehner, M. F., Westra, S., and Whitford, A.: Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 37, 20190542, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0542, 2021a. a, b
Fowler, H. J., Wasko, C., and Prein, A. F.: Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood ris.: current state of the art and future directions, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 37, 20190541, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0541, 2021b. a
Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E. J., Lewis, E., Schaer, C., Sharma, A., Villarini, G., Wasko, C., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6, 2021c. a, b
Gnedenko, B.: Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une serie aleatoire, Ann. Math., 44, 423–453, https://doi.org/10.2307/1968974, 1943.
Hardwick Jones, R., Westra, S., and Sharma, A.: Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045081, 2010. a
Huang, J., Fatichi, S., Mascaro, G., Manoli, G., and Peleg, N.: Intensification of sub-daily rainfall extremes in a low-rise urban area, Urban Climate, 42, 101124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101124, 2022. a
Iliopoulou T. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Projecting the future of rainfall extreme: Better classic than trendy, J. Hydrol.,, 588, 125005, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125005, 2020. a
Katz, R. W., Parlange, and M. B., Naveau P.: Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00056-8, 2002. a
Landl, B., Roulet, Y. A., and Calpini, B.: SwissMetNe: operational quality control on raw data of the new automatic meteorological ground-based network of Switzerland, 9th EMS Annual Meeting, 28 September–2 October 2009, Toulouse, France, EMS2009-453, 2009. a
Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci. 1, 511–514, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262, 2008. a
Lengfeld, K. and Marra, F.: Improving estimations of design storms from weather radar observations using a simplified metastatistical extreme value approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 April 2023, EGU23-7371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7371, 2023.
Libertino, A., Ganora, D., and Claps, P.: Evidence for increasing rainfall extremes remains elusive at large spatial scale: The case of Italy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7437–7446, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083371, 2019. a
Maity, S. S. and Maity, R.: Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change, Water Resour. Manag., 36, 5371–5399, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03313-y, 2022. a
Marani, M. and Ignaccolo, M.: A metastatistical approach to rainfall extremes, Adv. Water Resour., 79, 121–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.03.001, 2015. a
Marra, F.: A unified framework for extreme sub-daily precipitation frequency analyses based on ordinary events – data & codes (Version v1), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3971558, 2020.
Marra, F. and Peleg, N.: TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels (TENAX) (version 1.1), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8345905, 2023. a
Marra, F., Zoccatelli, D., Armon, M., and Morin, E.: A simplified MEV formulation to model extremes emerging from multiple nonstationary underlying processes, Adv. Water Resour., 127, 280–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.002, 2019. a, b
Marra, F., Borga, M., and Morin, E.: A unified framework for extreme subdaily precipitation frequency analyses based on ordinary events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL090209, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090209, 2020 (data available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3971558). a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Marra, F., Armon, M., Adam, O., Zoccatelli, D., Gazal, O., Garfinkel, C. I., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Dayan, U., Enzel, Y., and Morin, E.: Towards narrowing uncertainty in future projections of local extreme precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091823, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091823, 2021. a, b, c
Marra, F., Armon, M., and Morin, E.: Coastal and orographic effects on extreme precipitation revealed by weather radar observations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022. a, b
Marra F., Amponsah, W., and Papalexiou, S. M.: Non-asymptotic Weibull tails explain the statistics of extreme daily precipitation, Adv. Water Resour., 173, 104388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104388, 2023. a
Molnar, P., Fatichi, S., Gaál, L., Szolgay, J., and Burlando, P.: Storm type effects on super Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of intense rainstorm properties with air temperature, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1753–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, 2015. a, b
Moustakis, Y., Papalexiou, S. M., Onof, C. J., and Paschalis, A.: Seasonality, intensity, and duration of rainfall extremes change in a warmer climate, Earths Future, 9, e2020EF001824, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001824, 2021. a
Overeem, A., Buishand, T. A., and Holleman, I.: Rainfall Depth–Duration–Frequency Curves and Their Uncertainties, J. Hydrol., 348, 124–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.044, 2008. a
Palazzi, E., Mortarini, L., Terzago, S., and von Hardenberg, J.: Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2685–2702, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4287-z, 2019. a
Panthou, G., Mailhot, A., Laurence, E., and Talbot, G.: Relationship between surface temperature and extreme rainfall.: A multi-time-scale and event-based analysis, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1999–2011, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0020.1, 2014. a
Papalexiou, S. M. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Battle of extreme value distribution: A global survey on extreme daily rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 49, 187–201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012557, 2013. a
Peleg, N., Marra, F., Fatichi, S., Molnar, P., Morin, E., Sharma, A., and Burlando, P.: Intensification of convective rain cells at warmer temperatures observed from high-resolution weather radar data, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0158.1, 2018. a
Peleg, N., Ban, N., Gibson, M. J., Chen, A. S., Paschalis, A., Burlando, P., and Leitão, J. P.: Mapping storm spatial profiles for flood impact assessments, Adv. Water Resour., 166, 104258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104258, 2022. a
Pfahl S., O'Gorman P. A., and Fischer E. M.: Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation, Nat. Clim. Change 7, 423–427, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287, 2017. a, b
Poschlod, B.: Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3573–3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, 2021. a
Prosdocimi, I. and Kjeldsen, T.: Parametrisation of change-permitting extreme value models and its impact on the description of change, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 35, 307–324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01940-8, 2021. a
Ragno, E., AghaKouchak A., Cheng L., and Sadegh M.: A generalized framework for process-informed nonstationary extreme value analysis, Adv. Water Resour., 130, 270–282, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.06.007, 2019. a
Rubel, F., Brugger, K., Haslinger, K., and Auer, I.: The climate of the European Alp: Shift of very high resolution Köppen-Geiger climate zones 1800–2100, Meteorol. Z., 26, 115–125, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0816, 2017. a
Serinaldi, F. and Kilsby, C. G.: Stationarity is undea.: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes, Adv. Water Resour., 77, 17–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.12.013, 2015. a
Sippel, S., Mitchell, D., Black, M. T., Dittus, A. J., Harrington, L., Schaller, N., and Otto, F. E. L.: Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events, Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 25–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004, 2015. a
Sørland, S. L., Fischer, A. M., Kotlarski, S., Künsch, H. R., Liniger, M. A., Rajczak, J., Schär, C., Spirig, C., Strassmann, K., and Knutti, R.: CH2018–National climate scenarios for Switzerlan: How to construct consistent multi-model projections from ensembles of opportunity, Climate Services, 20, 100196, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100196, 2020. a
Tabari, H.: Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation, J. Hydrol., 593, 125932, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125932, 2021. a
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The Changing Character of Precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003. a, b
Utsumi, N., Seto, S., Kanae, S., Maeda, E. E., and Oki, T.: Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048426, 2011. a
Vidrio-Sahagún C. T. and He J.: Hydrological frequency analysis under nonstationarity using the Metastatistical approach and its simplified version, Adv. Water Resour., 166, 104244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104244, 2022. a
Visser, J. B., Wasko, C., Sharma, A., and Nathan, R.: Eliminating the “Hook” in Precipitation–Temperature Scaling, J. Climate, 34, 23, 9535–9549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0292.1, 2021. a
Wang, L.-P., Marra, F., and Onof, C.: Modelling sub-hourly rainfall extremes with short records – a comparison of MEV, Simplified MEV and point process methods, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-6061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6061, 2020. a, b, c
Wasko, C. and Sharma, A.: Quantile regression for investigating scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3608–3614, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015194, 2014. a, b
Wasko, C., Lu, W. T., and Mehrotra, R.: Relationship of extreme precipitation, dry-bulb temperature, and dew point temperature across Australia, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 074031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad135, 2018. a
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., and Roberts, N. M.: Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall, Rev. Geophys., 52, 522–555, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464, 2014. a, b
Wilson, P. S. and Toumi, R.: A fundamental probability distribution for heavy rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022465, 2005. a
Yan, L., Xiong, L., Jiang, C., Zhang, M., Wang, D., and Xu, C.-Y.: Updating intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban infrastructure design under a changing environment, WIREs Water, 8, e1519, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1519, 2021. a
Yin, J., Guo, S., Gentine, P., Sullivan, S. C., Gu, L., He, S., Chen, J., and Liu, P.: Does the hook structure constrain future flood intensification under anthropogenic climate warming?, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028491, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028491, 2021. a, b
Zorzetto, E., Botter, G., and Marani, M.: On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8076–8082, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069445, 2016.
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return...
