Articles | Volume 27, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 18 Oct 2023
| 18 Oct 2023
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Kaltrina Maloku
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Benoit Hingray
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Guillaume Evin
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-15, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
This work provides a relevant analysis of changes in extreme precipitation over the Caribbean and their link with warming in different ocean basins. It also improves our understanding of the impact of warming on extreme precipitation events, which can cause devastating damage to economic sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, health, and energy.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Maxime Taillardat, and Michaël Zamo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is essential for avalanche hazard surveys, road and ski resort management, tourism attractiveness, etc. Météo-France operates a probabilistic forecasting system using a numerical weather prediction system and a snowpack model. It provides better forecasts than direct diagnostics but exhibits significant biases. Post-processing methods can be applied to provide automatic forecasting products from this system.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2961–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Damien Raynaud, Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Jérémy Chardon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4339–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes a weather generator combining two sampling approaches. A first generator recombines large-scale atmospheric situations. A second generator is applied to these atmospheric trajectories in order to simulate long time series of daily regional precipitation and temperature. The method is applied to daily time series in Switzerland. It reproduces adequately the observed climatology and improves the reproduction of extreme precipitation values.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Matthieu Vernay, Joseph Bellier, Guillaume Evin, and Bruno Joly
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is crucial for avalanche hazard, road viability, ski resorts and tourism. The numerical models suffer from systematic and significant errors which are misleading for the final users. Here, we applied for the first time a state-of-the-art statistical method to correct ensemble numerical forecasts of the height of new snow from their statistical link with measurements in French Alps and Pyrenees. Thus the realism of automatic forecasts can be quickly improved.
Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.
Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Benoit Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes a multi-site daily precipitation model, named GWEX, which aims to reproduce the statistical features of extremely rare events at different temporal and spatial scales. Recent advances and various statistical methods (regionalization, disaggregation) are considered in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. Performances are shown with an application to 105 stations, covering a large region in Switzerland.
Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day.
The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
A. Kuentz, T. Mathevet, J. Gailhard, and B. Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2717–2736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, 2015
B. François, B. Hingray, F. Hendrickx, and J. D. Creutin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3787–3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products: testing cellular automata-based interpolation methodology on the Tanaro river basin in Italy
Machine learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
The agricultural expansion in South America’s Dry Chaco: Regional hydroclimate effects
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Modelling evaporation with local, regional and global BROOK90 frameworks: importance of parameterization and forcing
Hydrological concept formation inside long short-term memory (LSTM) networks
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-42, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The recent development of the a new meteorological dataset providing precipitation and temperature over France – FYRE Climate – has been transformed to streamflow time series over 1871–2012 through the used of a hydrological model. This led to the creation of the daily hydrological reconstructions called HyDRE and HyDRE. These two reconstructions are evaluated allow to better understand the variability of past hydrology over France.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2890, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extents' trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-214, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the Cellular Automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-181, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using 5 bias-corrected GCM outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models and a deep learning model.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar Vicente Müller, Miguel Angel Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1427, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the Dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation has changed the land’s characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning for multi-source precipitation merging over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error in precipitation estimation. This method is robust and may be successfully applied to other areas even with scarce data.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Cited articles
Acharya, S. C., Nathan, R., Wang, Q. J., and Su, C.-H.: Temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall measurements using regional reanalysis for hydrological applications, J. Hydrol., 610, 127867, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127867, 2022. a
Baeriswyl, P. A. and Rebetez, M.: Regionalization of precipitation in Switzerland by means of principal component analysis, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 58, 31–41, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00867430, 1997. a
Bárdossy, A.: Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 703–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-703-2007, 2007. a
Bennett, B., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Lambert, M., and Bates, B.: A comprehensive and systematic evaluation framework for a parsimonious daily rainfall field model, J. Hydrol., 556, 1123–1138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.043, 2018. a
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006. a
Breinl, K. and Di Baldassarre, G.: Space-time disaggregation of precipitation and temperature across different climates and spatial scales, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 21, 126–146, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.002, 2019. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., and van de Giesen, N.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3859–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, 2017. a
Evin, G., Favre, A.-C., and Hingray, B.: Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, 2018. a
Frei, C. and Schär, C.: A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873–900, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18:8<873::AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9, 1998. a, b
Gringorten, I. I.: A plotting rule for extreme probability paper, J. Geophys. Res., 68, 813–814, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ068i003p00813, 1963. a, b
Güntner, A., Olsson, J., Calver, A., and Gannon, B.: Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: the influence of climate, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 145–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-145-2001, 2001. a, b
Hingray, B., Picouet, C., and Musy, A., eds.: Hydrology: A Science for Engineers, CRC Press, https://doi.org/10.1201/b17169, 2014. a
Hyndman, R. J. and Koehler, A. B.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy, Int. J. Forecast., 22, 679–688, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001, 2006. a
IDAWEB: The data portal of MeteoSwiss for research and teaching, https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/services-and-publications/service/weather-and-climate-products/data-portal-for-teaching-and-research.html (last access: 10 December 2021), 2021. a
Jebari, S., Berndtsson, R., Olsson, J., and Bahri, A.: Soil erosion estimation based on rainfall disaggregation, J. Hydrol., 436-437, 102–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.03.001, 2012. a
Jennings, S. A., Lambert, M. F., and Kuczera, G.: Generating synthetic high resolution rainfall time series at sites with only daily rainfall using a master–target scaling approach, J. Hydrol., 393, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.013, 2010. a
Kang, B. and Ramírez, J. A.: A coupled stochastic space-time intermittent random cascade model for rainfall downscaling, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10534, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007692, 2010. a
Koutsoyiannis, D.: Rainfall disaggregation methods: Theory and applications, in: Proceedings, Workshop on Statistical and Mathematical Methods for Hydrological Analysis; Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, May 2003, Rome, Italy, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2840.8564, 2003. a
Koutsoyiannis, D. and Onof, C.: Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model, J. Hydrol., 246, 109–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00363-8, 2001. a
Liang, Q., Xia, X., and Hou, J.: Catchment-scale High-resolution Flash Flood Simulation Using the GPU-based Technology, Proced. Eng., 154, 975–981, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.585, 2016. a
Licznar, P., Schmitt, T. G., and Rupp, D. E.: Distributions of microcanonical cascade weights of rainfall at small timescales, Acta Geophys., 59, 1013–1043, https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-011-0014-4, 2011. a, b
Maloku, K.: disaggMRC: Temporal disaggregation of precipitation time series with microcanonical Random Cascade method (v1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8435607, 2023. a
McIntyre, N., Shi, M., and Onof, C.: Incorporating parameter dependencies into temporal downscaling of extreme rainfall using a random cascade approach, J. Hydrol., 542, 896–912, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.057, 2016. a, b, c
Menabde, M. and Sivapalan, M.: Modeling of rainfall time series and extremes using bounded random cascades and levy-stable distributions, Water Resour. Res., 36, 3293–3300, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900197, 2000. a, b
MeteoSwiss: Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, https://gate.meteoswiss.ch/idaweb/more.do (last access: 12 December 2021), 2021. a
Mezghani, A. and Hingray, B.: A combined downscaling-disaggregation weather generator for stochastic generation of multisite hourly weather variables over complex terrain: Development and multi-scale validation for the Upper Rhone River basin, J. Hydrol., 377, 245–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.033, 2009. a, b
Molnar, P. and Burlando, P.: Variability in the scale properties of high-resolution precipitation data in the Alpine climate of Switzerland: Variability In Scale Properties, Water Resour. Res., 44, W10404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006142, 2008. a, b
Müller, H. and Haberlandt, U.: Temporal rainfall disaggregation using a multiplicative cascade model for spatial application in urban hydrology, J. Hydrol., 556, 847–864, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.031, 2018. a
Ochoa-Rodriguez, S., Wang, L.-P., Gires, A., Pina, R. D., Reinoso-Rondinel, R., Bruni, G., Ichiba, A., Gaitan, S., Cristiano, E., van Assel, J., Kroll, S., Murlà-Tuyls, D., Tisserand, B., Schertzer, D., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Onof, C., Willems, P., and ten Veldhuis, M.-C.: Impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on urban hydrodynamic modelling outputs: A multi-catchment investigation, J. Hydrol., 531, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.035, 2015. a
Ormsbee, L. E.: Rainfall Disaggregation Model for Continuous Hydrologic Modeling, J. Hydraul. Eng., 115, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1989)115:4(507), 1989. a, b, c
Park, H. and Chung, G.: A Nonparametric Stochastic Approach for Disaggregation of Daily to Hourly Rainfall Using 3-Day Rainfall Patterns, Water, 12, 2306, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082306, 2020. a
Paschalis, A., Molnar, P., and Burlando, P.: Temporal dependence structure in weights in a multiplicative cascade model for precipitation, Water Resour. Res., 48, W01501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010679, 2012. a, b, c, d
Paulson, K. S. and Baxter, P. D.: Downscaling of rain gauge time series by multiplicative beta cascade, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007333, 2007. a
Pohle, I., Niebisch, M., Müller, H., Schümberg, S., Zha, T., Maurer, T., and Hinz, C.: Coupling Poisson rectangular pulse and multiplicative microcanonical random cascade models to generate sub-daily precipitation timeseries, J. Hydrol., 562, 50–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.063, 2018. a, b
Pui, A., Sharma, A., Mehrotra, R., Sivakumar, B., and Jeremiah, E.: A comparison of alternatives for daily to sub-daily rainfall disaggregation, J. Hydrol., 470-471, 138–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.08.041, 2012. a
Rafieeinasab, A., Norouzi, A., Kim, S., Habibi, H., Nazari, B., Seo, D.-J., Lee, H., Cosgrove, B., and Cui, Z.: Toward high-resolution flash flood prediction in large urban areas – Analysis of sensitivity to spatiotemporal resolution of rainfall input and hydrologic modeling, J. Hydrol., 531, 370–388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.045, 2015. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 12 October 2022), 2022. a
Römkens, M. J. M., Helming, K., and Prasad, S. N.: Soil erosion under different rainfall intensities, surface roughness, and soil water regimes, Catena, 46, 103–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(01)00161-8, 2002. a
Rupp, D. E., Licznar, P., Adamowski, W., and Leśniewski, M.: Multiplicative cascade models for fine spatial downscaling of rainfall: parameterization with rain gauge data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 671–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-671-2012, 2012. a
Schertzer, D. and Lovejoy, S.: Physical modeling and analysis of rain and clouds by anisotropic scaling multiplicative processes, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9693–9714, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD08p09693, 1987. a
Schleiss, M.: A new discrete multiplicative random cascade model for downscaling intermittent rainfall fields, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3699–3723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3699-2020, 2020. a
Seed, A. W., Srikanthan, R., and Menabde, M.: A space and time model for design storm rainfall, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 31623–31630, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900767, 1999. a
Segond, M.-L., Onof, C., and Wheater, H.: Spatial–temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall from a generalized linear model, J. Hydrol., 331, 674–689, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.019, 2006. a
Sikorska, A. E. and Seibert, J.: Appropriate temporal resolution of precipitation data for discharge modelling in pre-alpine catchments, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1410279, 2018. a
Srikanthan, R. and McMahon, T. A.: Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: A review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 653–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-653-2001, 2001. a
Tessier, Y., Lovejoy, S., and Schertzer, D.: Universal Multifractals: Theory and Observations for Rain and Clouds, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 32, 223–250, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1993)032<0223:UMTAOF>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Viviroli, D., Sikorska-Senoner, A. E., Evin, G., Staudinger, M., Kauzlaric, M., Chardon, J., Favre, A.-C., Hingray, B., Nicolet, G., Raynaud, D., Seibert, J., Weingartner, R., and Whealton, C.: Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022. a
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically...
