Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021

Research article 19 Mar 2021

Research article | 19 Mar 2021

Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe

Miriam Bertola et al.

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Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?
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Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. a, b
Arheimer, B. and Lindström, G.: Detecting Changes in River Flow Caused by Wildfires, Storms, Urbanization, Regulation, and Climate Across Sweden, Water Resour. Res., 55, 8990–9005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024759, 2019. a
Berg, P., Moseley, C., and Haerter, J. O.: Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 6, 181–185, 2013. a
Berghuijs, W. R., Harrigan, S., Molnar, P., Slater, L. J., and Kirchner, J. W.: The Relative Importance of Different Flood-Generating Mechanisms Across Europe, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4582–4593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024841, 2019. a, b
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Informed attribution of flood changes to decadal variation of atmospheric, catchment and river drivers in Upper Austria, J. Hydrol., 577, 123919, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123919, 2019. a, b
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Short summary
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe. In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.