Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
19 Mar 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 19 Mar 2021
| 19 Mar 2021
Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe
Miriam Bertola
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Alberto Viglione
Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Polytechnic University of Turin, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Turin, Italy
Sergiy Vorogushyn
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Hydrology section, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
David Lun
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria
Bruno Merz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Hydrology section, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Günter Blöschl
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria
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67 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022
- How Changes in Future Precipitation Impact Flood Frequencies: A Quantile‐Quantile Mapping Approach L. Cafiero et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038471
- Characterising the coincidence of soil moisture – precipitation extremes as a possible precursor to European floods A. Manoj J et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129445
- The impact of reservoirs with seasonal flood limit water level on the frequency of downstream floods M. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132009
- Understanding Heavy Tails of Flood Peak Distributions B. Merz et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030506
- Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods S. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl4005
- The Timing of Global Floods and Its Association With Climate and Topography P. Torre Zaffaroni et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032968
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- Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment: State of the Practice N. Grigg https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10020046
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- Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns L. Devitt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38297-9
- Spatial-temporal correlation-based analysis of multi-source flood coincidence risks: A case study of the middle and lower Yangtze River basin G. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102265
- Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171167
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- Shifting in the global flood timing G. Fang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23748-y
- Controls on Flood Trends Across the United States M. Kemter et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031673
- Frequency of Italian Record-Breaking Floods over the Last Century (1911–2020) A. Castellarin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070865
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- Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States J. Hecht et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100115
- Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction B. Renard et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037908
- Baseflow significantly contributes to river floods in Peninsular India S. Sharma & P. Mujumdar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51850-w
- Is there a consistency in basin morphometry and hydrodynamic modelling results in terms of the flood generation potential of basins? A case study from the Ulus River Basin (Türkiye) H. Ozdemir & A. Akbas https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129926
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- A novel explainable PSO-XGBoost model for regional flood frequency analysis at a national scale: Exploring spatial heterogeneity in flood drivers Y. Kanani-Sadat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131493
- Attributing European runoff changes to climatic drivers under future conditions I. Clemenzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134794
- Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios L. Palán et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050067
- Bayesian Networks for Preprocessing Water Management Data R. Ropero et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10101777
- Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess N. Venegas-Cordero et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164626
- An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years B. Fang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024
- Reservoir operation affects propagation from meteorological to hydrological extremes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin X. Yun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165297
- Applying a Holistic Approach to Environmental Flow Assessment in the Yen River Basin T. Tong et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16081174
- The impacts of rainfall and soil moisture to flood hazards in a humid mountainous catchment: a modeling investigation T. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1285766
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- Delineation of Flood Susceptibility Zone Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio Methods: A Case Study of Dakshin Dinajpur District, India D. Sarkar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-023-01777-y
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- Unraveling hydroclimatic forces controlling the runoff coefficient trends in central Italy’s Upper Tiber Basin A. Rahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101579
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- Understanding the impacts of predecessor rain events on flood hazard in a changing climate A. Khatun et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14500
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- Mapping the uneven temporal changes in ordinary and extraordinary rainfall extremes in Italy P. Mazzoglio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102287
- Single Shift Segmentation Improves Moderate Flood Estimates under Nonstationary Conditions across the United States R. Berton & V. Rahmani https://doi.org/10.70322/hee.2025.10009
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67 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022
- How Changes in Future Precipitation Impact Flood Frequencies: A Quantile‐Quantile Mapping Approach L. Cafiero et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038471
- Characterising the coincidence of soil moisture – precipitation extremes as a possible precursor to European floods A. Manoj J et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129445
- The impact of reservoirs with seasonal flood limit water level on the frequency of downstream floods M. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132009
- Understanding Heavy Tails of Flood Peak Distributions B. Merz et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030506
- Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods S. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl4005
- The Timing of Global Floods and Its Association With Climate and Topography P. Torre Zaffaroni et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032968
- HOchwasserRisikozonierung Austria 3.0 (HORA 3.0) G. Blöschl et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-022-00848-7
- Processing of nationwide topographic data for ensuring consistent river network representation M. Wimmer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100106
- Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment: State of the Practice N. Grigg https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10020046
- Panta Rhei: a decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society H. Kreibich et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2025.2469762
- Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023
- Evapotranspiration Estimation with the Budyko Framework for Canadian Watersheds Z. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11110191
- River flooding mechanisms and their changes in Europe revealed by explainable machine learning S. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022
- On the relation between antecedent basin conditions and runoff coefficient for European floods C. Massari et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130012
- Influence of low-frequency variability on high and low groundwater levels: example of aquifers in the Paris Basin L. Baulon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022
- Temporal changes in the frequency of flood types and their impact on flood statistics S. Fischer & A. Schumann https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2024.100171
- Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns L. Devitt et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38297-9
- Spatial-temporal correlation-based analysis of multi-source flood coincidence risks: A case study of the middle and lower Yangtze River basin G. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102265
- Increasing risk of synchronous floods in the Yangtze River basin from the shift in flood timing Y. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171167
- Classification of flood-generating processes in Africa Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23725-5
- Seasonal diversity of global flood changes and their drivers X. Gu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133976
- Shifting in the global flood timing G. Fang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-23748-y
- Controls on Flood Trends Across the United States M. Kemter et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031673
- Frequency of Italian Record-Breaking Floods over the Last Century (1911–2020) A. Castellarin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070865
- Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management L. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021
- Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States J. Hecht et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100115
- Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction B. Renard et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037908
- Baseflow significantly contributes to river floods in Peninsular India S. Sharma & P. Mujumdar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51850-w
- Is there a consistency in basin morphometry and hydrodynamic modelling results in terms of the flood generation potential of basins? A case study from the Ulus River Basin (Türkiye) H. Ozdemir & A. Akbas https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129926
- Increasing hourly heavy rainfall in Austria reflected in flood changes K. Haslinger et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08647-2
- Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change C. Wasko et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126994
- A novel explainable PSO-XGBoost model for regional flood frequency analysis at a national scale: Exploring spatial heterogeneity in flood drivers Y. Kanani-Sadat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131493
- Attributing European runoff changes to climatic drivers under future conditions I. Clemenzi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134794
- Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios L. Palán et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050067
- Bayesian Networks for Preprocessing Water Management Data R. Ropero et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10101777
- Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess N. Venegas-Cordero et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164626
- An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years B. Fang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024
- Reservoir operation affects propagation from meteorological to hydrological extremes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin X. Yun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165297
- Applying a Holistic Approach to Environmental Flow Assessment in the Yen River Basin T. Tong et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16081174
- The impacts of rainfall and soil moisture to flood hazards in a humid mountainous catchment: a modeling investigation T. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1285766
- Quantifying the relative contributions of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture to flood generation: Analysis of 963 Iranian catchments A. Jahanshahi & M. Booij https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2025.105328
- An Overview of Flood Concepts, Challenges, and Future Directions A. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002164
- Delineation of Flood Susceptibility Zone Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio Methods: A Case Study of Dakshin Dinajpur District, India D. Sarkar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-023-01777-y
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- Effective science communication in the face of water crises: a community perspective on challenges and best practice in HELPING C. Orieschnig et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2625282
- Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe J. Meyer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6163-2022
- The legacy of STAHY: milestones, achievements, challenges, and open problems in statistical hydrology E. Volpi et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2385686
- Development of a Precipitation-Induced Moisture-Driven Landslide Threshold Atlas for the Northwestern and Northeastern Himalayas D. Monga & P. Ganguli https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6745
- Unraveling hydroclimatic forces controlling the runoff coefficient trends in central Italy’s Upper Tiber Basin A. Rahi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101579
- Evaluation of key flood risk drivers under climate change using a bottom-up approach D. O’Shea et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131694
- Modelling the impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield in Mediterranean basins: the Carapelle case study (Apulia, Italy) O. Abdelwahab et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1486644
- The relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and precipitation in flood generation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin Q. Ran et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4919-2022
- Understanding the impacts of predecessor rain events on flood hazard in a changing climate A. Khatun et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14500
- Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe L. Tarasova et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8
- Increased persistence of warm and wet winter weather in recent decades in north-western Europe B. Spanjers et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02588-4
- Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate B. Fang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y
- Nonstationary stochastic paired watershed approach: Investigating forest harvesting effects on floods in two large, nested, and snow-dominated watersheds in British Columbia, Canada R. Johnson & Y. Alila https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129970
- Mapping the uneven temporal changes in ordinary and extraordinary rainfall extremes in Italy P. Mazzoglio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102287
- Single Shift Segmentation Improves Moderate Flood Estimates under Nonstationary Conditions across the United States R. Berton & V. Rahmani https://doi.org/10.70322/hee.2025.10009
- Correlation between climate and flood indices in Northwestern Italy at different temporal scales M. Pesce et al. https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2022-0009
- What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation? E. Macdonald et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024
- Influence of existing reservoirs on the propagation from meteorological to hydrological extremes under climate change in the Ruzizi river basin: historical assessment and future projection B. Ahana et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2025.2545499
- Dominant flood types in Europe and their role in flood statistics S. Fischer & A. Schumann https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2025.2450369
- Werden die Hochwasser größer? Ursachen, Trends und Handlungsoptionen G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-025-01165-5
- Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods? N. Poncet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
- Design flood estimation in flood hazard studies: a three-decade systematic review of practices in Canada C. Vidrio-Sahagún et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2025.2462603
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 May 2026
Short summary
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to...
