Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe

Bertola, Miriam; Viglione, Alberto; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Lun, David; Merz, Bruno; Blöschl, Günter

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

19 Mar 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 19 Mar 2021

Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe

Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl

Data sets

MiriamBertola/flood_change_attribution: Stan code for flood change attribution v1.0 (Version v1.0) M. Bertola, A. Viglione, S. Vorogushyn, D. Lun, B., Merz, and G. Blöschl https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4593140

Short summary

We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe. In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.