Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-227-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-227-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jan 2020
Research article |
| 16 Jan 2020
| 16 Jan 2020
A framework for deriving drought indicators from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
Helena Gerdener
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Olga Engels
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Jürgen Kusche
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
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Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
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Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP which has been used for numerous water resources assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features and model evaluations against observed streamflow and water storage anomalies as well as water abstractions statistics. The publically available model output for several variants is described.
Petra Döll, H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Kerstin Schulze, Helena Gerdener, Lara Börger, Somayeh Shadkam, Sebastian Ackermann, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Hannes Müller Schmied, Andreas Güntner, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, 2023
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For the pilot region Mississippi River basin, we explored three model calibration approaches for using both streamflow and total water storage anomaly (TWSA) observations to adjust parameter sets of a global hydrological model. We developed a method for considering the observation uncertainties to determine not only optimal but also behavioral parameter sets and model output uncertainty. Model performance was improved but trade-offs between optimal fits to streamflow and TWSA may be large.
Simon Deggim, Annette Eicker, Lennart Schawohl, Helena Gerdener, Kerstin Schulze, Olga Engels, Jürgen Kusche, Anita T. Saraswati, Tonie van Dam, Laura Ellenbeck, Denise Dettmering, Christian Schwatke, Stefan Mayr, Igor Klein, and Laurent Longuevergne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2227–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, 2021
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GRACE provides us with global changes of terrestrial water storage. However, the data have a low spatial resolution, and localized storage changes in lakes/reservoirs or mass change due to earthquakes causes leakage effects. The correction product RECOG RL01 presented in this paper accounts for these effects. Its application allows for improving calibration/assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models and better drought detection in earthquake-affected areas.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, 2020
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The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Mirko Scheinert, Veit Helm, Bernd Uebbing, and Jürgen Kusche
The Cryosphere, 18, 775–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, 2024
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Shrinkage of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) leads to sea level rise. Satellite gravimetry measures AIS mass changes. We apply a new method that overcomes two limitations: low spatial resolution and large uncertainties due to the Earth's interior mass changes. To do so, we additionally include data from satellite altimetry and climate and firn modelling, which are evaluated in a globally consistent way with thoroughly characterized errors. The results are in better agreement with independent data.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Sebastian Ackermann, Denise Cáceres, Martina Flörke, Helena Gerdener, Ellen Kynast, Thedini Asali Peiris, Leonie Schiebener, Maike Schumacher, and Petra Döll
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-213, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
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Assessing water availability and water use at the global scale is challenging but essential for a range of purposes. We describe the newest version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP which has been used for numerous water resources assessments since 1996. We show the effects of new model features and model evaluations against observed streamflow and water storage anomalies as well as water abstractions statistics. The publically available model output for several variants is described.
Petra Döll, H. M. Mehedi Hasan, Kerstin Schulze, Helena Gerdener, Lara Börger, Somayeh Shadkam, Sebastian Ackermann, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Hannes Müller Schmied, Andreas Güntner, and Jürgen Kusche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-18, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the pilot region Mississippi River basin, we explored three model calibration approaches for using both streamflow and total water storage anomaly (TWSA) observations to adjust parameter sets of a global hydrological model. We developed a method for considering the observation uncertainties to determine not only optimal but also behavioral parameter sets and model output uncertainty. Model performance was improved but trade-offs between optimal fits to streamflow and TWSA may be large.
Simon Deggim, Annette Eicker, Lennart Schawohl, Helena Gerdener, Kerstin Schulze, Olga Engels, Jürgen Kusche, Anita T. Saraswati, Tonie van Dam, Laura Ellenbeck, Denise Dettmering, Christian Schwatke, Stefan Mayr, Igor Klein, and Laurent Longuevergne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2227–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2227-2021, 2021
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GRACE provides us with global changes of terrestrial water storage. However, the data have a low spatial resolution, and localized storage changes in lakes/reservoirs or mass change due to earthquakes causes leakage effects. The correction product RECOG RL01 presented in this paper accounts for these effects. Its application allows for improving calibration/assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models and better drought detection in earthquake-affected areas.
L. Drees, J. Kusche, and R. Roscher
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2020, 813–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2020-813-2020, 2020
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-695-2020, 2020
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The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Stefan Schröder, Anne Springer, Jürgen Kusche, Bernd Uebbing, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Bernd Diekkrüger, and Thomas Poméon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4113–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4113-2019, 2019
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We propose deriving altimetric rating curves by
bridginggaps between time series from gauge and altimeter measurements using hydrological model simulations. We investigate several stations at the Niger River, which is a challenging region. We show that altimetry reproduces discharge well and enables continuing the gauge time series, albeit at a lower temporal resolution.
Kristin Vielberg, Ehsan Forootan, Christina Lück, Anno Löcher, Jürgen Kusche, and Klaus Börger
Ann. Geophys., 36, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-761-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-761-2018, 2018
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To predict the satellite's motion or its re-entry, the density surrounding the satellite needs to be known as precisely as possible. Usually empirical models are used to estimate the neutral density of the thermosphere, which is the region of the neutrally charged atmosphere. Here, based on calibrated accelerations measured by instruments on board satellites, we compute daily global maps to correct modeled densities. During times of high solar activity, corrections of up to 28 % are necessary.
Christina Lück, Jürgen Kusche, Roelof Rietbroek, and Anno Löcher
Solid Earth, 9, 323–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-323-2018, 2018
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Since 2002, the GRACE mission provides estimates of the Earth's time-variable gravity field, from which one can derive ocean mass variability. Now that the GRACE mission has come to an end, it is especially important to find alternative ways for deriving ocean mass changes. For the first time, we use kinematic orbits of Swarm for computing ocean mass time series. We compute monthly solutions, but also show an alternative way of directly estimating time-variable spherical harmonic coefficients.
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed
Integrating process-related information into an artificial neural network for root-zone soil moisture prediction
Coherence of global hydroclimate classification systems
Design flood estimation for global river networks based on machine learning models
Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
The spatial extent of hydrological and landscape changes across the mountains and prairies of Canada in the Mackenzie and Nelson River basins based on data from a warm-season time window
Averaging over spatiotemporal heterogeneity substantially biases evapotranspiration rates in a mechanistic large-scale land evaporation model
Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN) – a global land-based gridded dataset of daily precipitation from 1950 to 2016
Hydrological effects of climate variability and vegetation dynamics on annual fluvial water balance in global large river basins
Spatial patterns and characteristics of flood seasonality in Europe
Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE): a global gridded synthesis ET estimate
Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014
The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis
Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations
A global water cycle reanalysis (2003–2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble
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Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members – Part 1: Optimization criteria
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Fadji Z. Maina, Alan Rhoades, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, and Peter-James Dennedy-Frank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3589–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3589-2022, 2022
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In this work, we assess the effects of end-of-century extreme dry and wet conditions on the hydrology of California. Our results, derived from cutting-edge and high-resolution climate and hydrologic models, highlight that (1) water storage will be larger and increase earlier in the year, yet the summer streamflow will decrease as a result of high evapotranspiration rates, and that (2) groundwater and lower-order streams are very sensitive to decreases in snowmelt and higher evapotranspiration.
Roiya Souissi, Mehrez Zribi, Chiara Corbari, Marco Mancini, Sekhar Muddu, Sat Kumar Tomer, Deepti B. Upadhyaya, and Ahmad Al Bitar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3263–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3263-2022, 2022
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In this study, we investigate the combination of surface soil moisture information with process-related features, namely, evaporation efficiency, soil water index and normalized difference vegetation index, using artificial neural networks to predict root-zone soil moisture. The joint use of process-related features yielded more accurate predictions in the case of arid and semiarid conditions. However, they have no to little added value in temperate to tropical conditions.
Kathryn L. McCurley Pisarello and James W. Jawitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6173–6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6173-2021, 2021
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Climate classification systems divide the Earth into zones of similar climates. We compared the within-zone hydroclimate similarity and zone shape complexity of a suite of climate classification systems, including new ones formed in this study. The most frequently used system had high similarity but high complexity. We propose the Water-Energy Clustering framework, which also had high similarity but lower complexity. This new system is therefore proposed for future hydroclimate assessments.
Gang Zhao, Paul Bates, Jeffrey Neal, and Bo Pang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5981–5999, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5981-2021, 2021
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Design flood estimation is a fundamental task in hydrology. We propose a machine- learning-based approach to estimate design floods anywhere on the global river network. This approach shows considerable improvement over the index-flood-based method, and the average bias in estimation is less than 18 % for 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year design floods. This approach is a valid method to estimate design floods globally, improving our prediction of flood hazard, especially in ungauged areas.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Haoling Chen, Quanxi Shao, Tongbi Tu, Yu Tian, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5717–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5717-2021, 2021
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This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection using the coefficient of determination. Three cases of attribution are effectively facilitated, which are significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection.
Paul H. Whitfield, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Kevin R. Shook, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2513–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2513-2021, 2021
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Using only warm season streamflow records, regime and change classifications were produced for ~ 400 watersheds in the Nelson and Mackenzie River basins, and trends in water storage and vegetation were detected from satellite imagery. Three areas show consistent changes: north of 60° (increased streamflow and basin greenness), in the western Boreal Plains (decreased streamflow and basin greenness), and across the Prairies (three different patterns of increased streamflow and basin wetness).
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Massimiliano Zappa, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5015–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest flux from the land to the atmosphere and thus contributes to Earth's energy and water balance. Due to its impact on atmospheric dynamics, ET is a key driver of droughts and heatwaves. In this paper, we demonstrate how averaging over land surface heterogeneity contributes to substantial overestimates of ET fluxes. We also demonstrate how one can correct for the effects of small-scale heterogeneity without explicitly representing it in land surface models.
Steefan Contractor, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, Markus Ziese, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Udo Schneider, Elke Rustemeier, Andreas Becker, Imke Durre, and Russell S. Vose
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 919–943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-919-2020, 2020
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This paper provides the documentation of the REGEN dataset, a global land-based daily observational precipitation dataset from 1950 to 2016 at a gridded resolution of 1° × 1°. REGEN is currently the longest-running global dataset of daily precipitation and is expected to facilitate studies looking at changes and variability in several aspects of daily precipitation distributions, extremes and measures of hydrological intensity.
Jianyu Liu, Qiang Zhang, Vijay P. Singh, Changqing Song, Yongqiang Zhang, Peng Sun, and Xihui Gu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4047–4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4047-2018, 2018
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Considering effective precipitation (Pe), the Budyko framework was extended to the annual water balance analysis. To reflect the mismatch between water supply (precipitation, P) and energy (potential evapotranspiration,
E0), a climate seasonality and asynchrony index (SAI) were proposed in terms of both phase and amplitude mismatch between P and E0.
Julia Hall and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3883–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, 2018
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Jason Evans, and Anna Ukkola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1317–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1317-2018, 2018
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We present a new global ET dataset and associated uncertainty with monthly temporal resolution for 2000–2009 and 0.5 grid cell size. Six existing gridded ET products are combined using a weighting approach trained by observational datasets from 159 FLUXNET sites. We confirm that point-based estimates of flux towers provide information at the grid scale of these products. We also show that the weighted product performs better than 10 different existing global ET datasets in a range of metrics.
Myoung-Jin Um, Yeonjoo Kim, Daeryong Park, and Jeongbin Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4989–5007, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4989-2017, 2017
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This study aims to understand how different reference periods (i.e., calibration periods) of climate data for estimating the drought index influence regional drought assessments. Specifically, we investigate the influence of different reference periods on historical drought characteristics such as trends, frequency, intensity and spatial extents using the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) estimated from the two widely used global datasets.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
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The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
B. Asadieh and N. Y. Krakauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 877–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015, 2015
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We present a systematic comparison of changes in historical extreme precipitation in station observations (HadEX2) and 15 climate models from the CMIP5 (as the largest and most recent sets of available observational and modeled data sets), on global and continental scales for 1901-2010, using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (the Mann-Kendall as well as Sen’s slope estimator) methods, taking care to sample observations and models spatially and temporally in comparable ways.
A. I. J. M. van Dijk, L. J. Renzullo, Y. Wada, and P. Tregoning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2955-2014, 2014
M. H. J. van Huijgevoort, P. Hazenberg, H. A. J. van Lanen, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2437–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2437-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2437-2012, 2012
D. Brochero, F. Anctil, and C. Gagné
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3307–3325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3307-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3307-2011, 2011
D. Brochero, F. Anctil, and C. Gagné
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3327–3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3327-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3327-2011, 2011
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Short summary
GRACE-derived drought indicators enable us to detect hydrological droughts based on changes observed in all storages. By performing synthetic experiments, we find that droughts identified by existing and modified indicators are biased by trends and GRACE-based spatial noise. A modified version of the Zhao et al. (2017) indicator is found to be particularly robust against spatial noise and is therefore applied to real GRACE data over South Africa.
GRACE-derived drought indicators enable us to detect hydrological droughts based on changes...
