Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4471–4489, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4471–4489, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 30 Oct 2019
Research article | 30 Oct 2019
Future shifts in extreme flow regimes in Alpine regions
Manuela I. Brunner et al.
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Manuela I. Brunner and Louise Slater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-345, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
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Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Álvaro Ossandón, Manuela I Brunner, Balaji Rajagopalan, and William Kleiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-270, 2021
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Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood risk mitigation. However, this is challenging particularly under space-time non-stationarity. We develop a space-time Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) using temporal climate covariates and Copulas to project seasonal streamflow extremes and the attendant uncertainties. We demonstrate this on the Upper Colorado River Basin to project spring flow extremes using preceding winter’s climate teleconnections.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
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Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
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Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3967–3982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, 2020
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Stochastically generated streamflow time series are used for various water management and hazard estimation applications. They provide realizations of plausible but yet unobserved streamflow time series with the same characteristics as the observed data. We propose a stochastic simulation approach in the frequency domain instead of the time domain. Our evaluation results suggest that the flexible, continuous simulation approach is valuable for a diverse range of water management applications.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
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Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Manuela I. Brunner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019
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The 2018 drought event had severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. How extreme was it in Switzerland? We addressed this question by looking at different types of drought, including meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and groundwater drought, and at the two characteristics deficit and deficit duration. The return period estimates depended on the region, variable, and return period considered.
Manuela I. Brunner, András Bárdossy, and Reinhard Furrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3175–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019
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This study proposes a procedure for the generation of daily discharge data which considers temporal dependence both within short timescales and across different years. The simulation procedure can be applied to individual and multiple sites. It can be used for various applications such as the design of hydropower reservoirs, the assessment of flood risk or the assessment of drought persistence, and the estimation of the risk of multi-year droughts.
Manuela I. Brunner, Reinhard Furrer, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, 2019
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Floods often affect a whole region and not only a single location. When estimating the rarity of regional events, the dependence of floods at different locations should be taken into account. We propose a simple model that considers the dependence of flood events at different locations and the network structure of the river system. We test this model on a medium-sized catchment in Switzerland. The model allows for the simulations of flood event sets at multiple gauged and ungauged locations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-233, 2021
Preprint under review for TC
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We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, showing the importance of accounting for debris cover.
Manuela I. Brunner and Louise Slater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-345, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
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Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Hannah R. Field, William H. Armstrong, and Matthias Huss
The Cryosphere, 15, 3255–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3255-2021, 2021
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The growth of a glacier lake alters the hydrology, ecology, and glaciology of its surrounding region. We investigate modern glacier lake area change across northwestern North America using repeat satellite imagery. Broadly, we find that lakes downstream from glaciers grew, while lakes dammed by glaciers shrunk. Our results suggest that the shape of the landscape surrounding a glacier lake plays a larger role in determining how quickly a lake changes than climatic or glaciologic factors.
Álvaro Ossandón, Manuela I Brunner, Balaji Rajagopalan, and William Kleiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-270, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
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Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood risk mitigation. However, this is challenging particularly under space-time non-stationarity. We develop a space-time Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) using temporal climate covariates and Copulas to project seasonal streamflow extremes and the attendant uncertainties. We demonstrate this on the Upper Colorado River Basin to project spring flow extremes using preceding winter’s climate teleconnections.
Loris Compagno, Sarah Eggs, Matthias Huss, Harry Zekollari, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 15, 2593–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2593-2021, 2021
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Recently, discussions have focused on the difference in limiting the increase in global average temperatures to below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C compared to preindustrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that the different temperature targets have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100.
Christophe Ogier, Mauro A. Werder, Matthias Huss, Isabelle Kull, David Hodel, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-151, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for TC
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Glacier-dammed lakes are prone to drain rapidly when the ice dam breaks, and constitute a serious threat for populations downstream. Such a lake drainage can proceed through an open-air channel at the glacier surface. In this study, we present what we believe to be the most complete data set to date of an ice-dammed lake drainage through such an open-air channel. We provide new insights for future glacier-dammed lakes drainage modelling studies and hazard assessments.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
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Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
Rebecca Gugerli, Matteo Guidicelli, Marco Gabella, Matthias Huss, and Nadine Salzmann
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 7–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-7-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-7-2021, 2021
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To obtain reliable snowfall estimates in high mountain remains a challenge. This study uses daily snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates by a cosmic ray sensor on two Swiss glaciers to assess three
readily-available high-quality precipitation products. We find a large bias between in situ SWE and snowfall, which differs among the precipitation products, the two sites, the winter seasons and in situ meteorological conditions. All products have great potential for various applications in the Alps.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Johannes M. Landmann, Hans R. Künsch, Matthias Huss, Christophe Ogier, Markus Kalisch, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-281, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for TC
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In this study, we (1) acquire real-time information on point glacier mass balance with autonomous cameras and (2) assimilate these observations into a mass balance model ensemble driven by meteorological input. For doing so, we use a customized particle filter that we designed for the specific purposes of our study. We find melt rates of up to 0.12 m water equivalent per day, and show that our assimilation method has a higher performance than reference mass balance models.
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Massimiliano Zappa, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5015–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest flux from the land to the atmosphere and thus contributes to Earth's energy and water balance. Due to its impact on atmospheric dynamics, ET is a key driver of droughts and heatwaves. In this paper, we demonstrate how averaging over land surface heterogeneity contributes to substantial overestimates of ET fluxes. We also demonstrate how one can correct for the effects of small-scale heterogeneity without explicitly representing it in land surface models.
Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3967–3982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastically generated streamflow time series are used for various water management and hazard estimation applications. They provide realizations of plausible but yet unobserved streamflow time series with the same characteristics as the observed data. We propose a stochastic simulation approach in the frequency domain instead of the time domain. Our evaluation results suggest that the flexible, continuous simulation approach is valuable for a diverse range of water management applications.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Álvaro Ayala, David Farías-Barahona, Matthias Huss, Francesca Pellicciotti, James McPhee, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020
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We reconstruct past glacier changes (1955–2016) and estimate the committed ice loss in the Maipo River basin (semi-arid Andes of Chile), with a focus on glacier runoff. We found that glacier volume has decreased by one-fifth since 1955 and that glacier runoff shows a sequence of decreasing maxima starting in a severe drought in 1968. As meltwater originating from the Andes plays a key role in this dry region, our results can be useful for developing adaptation or mitigation strategies.
Marco Dal Molin, Mario Schirmer, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, 2020
Michael Zemp, Matthias Huss, Nicolas Eckert, Emmanuel Thibert, Frank Paul, Samuel U. Nussbaumer, and Isabelle Gärtner-Roer
The Cryosphere, 14, 1043–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1043-2020, 2020
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Comprehensive assessments of global glacier mass changes have been published at multi-annual intervals, typically in IPCC reports. For the years in between, we present an approach to infer timely but preliminary estimates of global-scale glacier mass changes from glaciological observations. These ad hoc estimates for 2017/18 indicate that annual glacier contributions to sea-level rise exceeded 1 mm sea-level equivalent, which corresponds to more than a quarter of the currently observed rise.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Massimiliano Zappa, Marc Scherstjanoi, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 537–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, 2020
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Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are a valuable tool to anticipate these changes. In this study, we combine two existing models that each describe one aspect of the environment: forest dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The coupled model better described observed patterns in vegetation structure. We also found that including the effect of water availability on tree height and rooting depth improved the model.
Rebecca Gugerli, Nadine Salzmann, Matthias Huss, and Darin Desilets
The Cryosphere, 13, 3413–3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3413-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3413-2019, 2019
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The snow water equivalent (SWE) in high mountain regions is crucial for many applications. Yet its quantification remains difficult. We present autonomous daily SWE observations by a cosmic ray sensor (CRS) deployed on a Swiss glacier for two winter seasons. Combined with snow depth observations, we derive the daily bulk snow density. The validation with manual field observations and its measurement reliability show that the CRS is a promising device for high alpine cryospheric environments.
Manuela I. Brunner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The 2018 drought event had severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. How extreme was it in Switzerland? We addressed this question by looking at different types of drought, including meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and groundwater drought, and at the two characteristics deficit and deficit duration. The return period estimates depended on the region, variable, and return period considered.
Manuela I. Brunner, András Bárdossy, and Reinhard Furrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3175–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a procedure for the generation of daily discharge data which considers temporal dependence both within short timescales and across different years. The simulation procedure can be applied to individual and multiple sites. It can be used for various applications such as the design of hydropower reservoirs, the assessment of flood risk or the assessment of drought persistence, and the estimation of the risk of multi-year droughts.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 13, 1125–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019, 2019
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Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. We model the future evolution of all glaciers in the Alps with a novel model that combines both ice flow and melt processes. We find that under a limited warming scenario about one-third of the present-day ice volume will still be present by the end of the century, while under strong warming more than 90 % of the volume will be lost by 2100.
Kathrin Naegeli, Matthias Huss, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 13, 397–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-397-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-397-2019, 2019
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The paper investigates the temporal changes of bare-ice glacier surface albedo in the Swiss Alps between 1999 and 2016 from a regional to local scale using satellite data. Significant negative trends were found in the lowermost elevations and margins of the ablation zones. Although significant changes of glacier ice albedo are only present over a limited area, we emphasize that albedo feedback will considerably enhance the rate of glacier mass loss in the Swiss Alps in the near future.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
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Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
Manuela I. Brunner, Reinhard Furrer, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often affect a whole region and not only a single location. When estimating the rarity of regional events, the dependence of floods at different locations should be taken into account. We propose a simple model that considers the dependence of flood events at different locations and the network structure of the river system. We test this model on a medium-sized catchment in Switzerland. The model allows for the simulations of flood event sets at multiple gauged and ungauged locations.
Manuel Antonetti, Christoph Horat, Ioannis V. Sideris, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 19–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, 2019
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To predict timing and magnitude peak run-off, meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based run-off generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational flash predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on run-off processes.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
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A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Julien Seguinot, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Guillaume Jouvet, Matthias Huss, Martin Funk, and Frank Preusser
The Cryosphere, 12, 3265–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3265-2018, 2018
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About 25 000 years ago, Alpine glaciers filled most of the valleys and even extended onto the plains. In this study, with help from traces left by glaciers on the landscape, we use a computer model that contains knowledge of glacier physics based on modern observations of Greenland and Antarctica and laboratory experiments on ice, and one of the fastest computers in the world, to attempt a reconstruction of the evolution of Alpine glaciers through time from 120 000 years ago to today.
Manuel Antonetti and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4425–4447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, 2018
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We developed 60 modelling chain combinations based on either experimentalists' (bottom-up) or modellers' (top-down) thinking and forced them with data of increasing accuracy. Results showed that the differences in performance arising from the forcing data were due to compensation effects. We also found that modellers' and experimentalists' concept of
model realismdiffers, and the level of detail a model should have to reproduce the processes expected must be agreed in advance.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Heike Lischke, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018
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To simulate the water balance of, e.g., a forest plot, it is important to estimate the maximum volume of water available to plants. This depends on soil properties and the average depth of roots. Rooting depth has proven challenging to estimate. Here, we applied a model assuming that plants dimension their roots to optimize their carbon budget. We compared its results with values obtained by calibrating a dynamic water balance model. In most cases, there is good agreement between both methods.
Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Ryskul Usubaliev, Erlan Azisov, Etienne Berthier, Andreas Kääb, Tobias Bolch, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 12, 1899–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1899-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1899-2018, 2018
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In this study, we used three independent methods (in situ measurements, comparison of digital elevation models and modelling) to reconstruct the mass change from 2000 to 2016 for three glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir. Snow lines observed on remote sensing images were used to improve conventional modelling by constraining a mass balance model. As a result, glacier mass changes for unmeasured years and glaciers can be better assessed. Substantial mass loss was confirmed for the three glaciers.
Christoph Horat, Manuel Antonetti, Katharina Liechti, Pirmin Kaufmann, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, 2018
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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Two forecasting chains are forced by information from numerical weather predictions. The framework presented in the companion paper by Antonetti et al. has been set up for the Swiss Verzasca basin. The forecasts obtained with the uncalibrated RGM-PRO model are compared to forecasts yielded by the calibrated PREVAH-HRU model. Results shows that the uncalibrated model is able to compete with the calibrated operational prediction system and was consistently superior for
high-flow situations.
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
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This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Nadine Feiger, Matthias Huss, Silvan Leinss, Leo Sold, and Daniel Farinotti
Geogr. Helv., 73, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-73-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-73-1-2018, 2018
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This contribution presents two updated bedrock topographies and ice thickness distributions with a new uncertainty assessment for Gries- and Findelengletscher, Switzerland. The results are based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and the
ice thickness estimation method (ITEM). The results show a total glacier volume of 0.28 ± 0.06 and 1.00 ± 0.34 km3 for Gries- and Findelengletscher, respectively, with corresponding average ice thicknesses of 56.8 ± 12.7 and 56.3 ± 19.6 m.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
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Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5493–5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, 2017
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The enhanced availability of many different weather prediction systems nowadays makes it very difficult for flood and water resource managers to choose the most reliable and accurate forecast. In order to circumvent this problem of choice, different approaches for combining this information have been applied at the Sihl River (CH) and the results have been verified. The outcome of this study highlights the importance of forecast combination in order to improve the quality of forecast systems.
Martin Hoelzle, Erlan Azisov, Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, Abror Gafurov, Wilfried Hagg, Ruslan Kenzhebaev, Marlene Kronenberg, Horst Machguth, Alexandr Merkushkin, Bolot Moldobekov, Maxim Petrov, Tomas Saks, Nadine Salzmann, Tilo Schöne, Yuri Tarasov, Ryskul Usubaliev, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Andrey Yakovlev, and Michael Zemp
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, 2017
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
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ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Vanessa Round, Silvan Leinss, Matthias Huss, Christoph Haemmig, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 11, 723–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, 2017
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Recent surging of Kyagar Glacier (Karakoram) caused a hazardous ice-dammed lake to form and burst in 2015 and 2016. We use remotely sensed glacier surface velocities and surface elevation to observe dramatic changes in speed and mass distribution during the surge. The surge was hydrologically controlled with rapid summer onset and dramatic termination following lake outburst. Since the surge, the potential outburst hazard has remained high, and continued remote monitoring is crucial.
Manuel Antonetti, Rahel Buss, Simon Scherrer, Michael Margreth, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2929–2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, 2016
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We evaluated three automatic mapping approaches of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) with different complexity using similarity measures and synthetic runoff simulations. The most complex DRP maps were the most similar to the reference maps. Runoff simulations derived from the simpler DRP maps were more uncertain due to inaccuracies in the input data and rather coarse simplifications in the mapping criteria. It would thus be worthwhile trying to obtain DRP maps that are as realistic as possible.
Mauro Fischer, Matthias Huss, Mario Kummert, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 10, 1279–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1279-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1279-2016, 2016
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This study provides the first thorough validation of geodetic glacier mass changes derived from close-range high-resolution remote sensing techniques, and highlights the potential of terrestrial laser scanning for repeated mass balance monitoring of very small alpine glaciers. The presented methodology is promising, as laborious and potentially dangerous in situ measurements as well as the spatial inter- and extrapolation of point measurements over the entire glacier can be circumvented.
James S. Douglas, Matthias Huss, Darrel A. Swift, Julie M. Jones, and Franco Salerno
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-116, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Glacier behaviour in high-mountain Asia is different from other regions due to debris cover and ice stagnation. This study incorporates these factors into a glacio-hydrological model for the first time at the Khumbu Glacier, Nepal. We show that including debris provides a more realistic representation of the Khumbu Glacier than in previous runoff models, and that changes to the debris surface significantly influence glacier and runoff evolution, with impacts on downstream water resources.
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
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In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, 2016
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We quantified how long snowmelt affects runoff, and we estimated the sensitivity of catchments to changes in snowpack. This is relevant as the increase of air temperature might cause decreased snow storage. We used time series from 14 catchments in Switzerland. On average, a decrease of maximum snow storage by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 2 to 9 %. The results showed a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow in alpine catchments compared to pre-alpine catchments.
J. Gabbi, M. Huss, A. Bauder, F. Cao, and M. Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 9, 1385–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1385-2015, 2015
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Light-absorbing impurities in snow and ice increase the absorption of solar radiation and thus enhance melting. We investigated the effect of Saharan dust and black carbon on the mass balance of an Alpine glacier over 1914-2014. Snow impurities increased melt by 15-19% depending on the location on the glacier. From the accumulation area towards the equilibrium line, the effect of impurities increased as more frequent years with negative mass balance led to a re-exposure of dust-enriched layers.
M. Zappa, T. Vitvar, A. Rücker, G. Melikadze, L. Bernhard, V. David, M. Jans-Singh, N. Zhukova, and M. Sanda
Proc. IAHS, 369, 25–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, 2015
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A research effort involving Switzerland, Georgia and the Czech Republic has been launched to evaluate the relation between snowpack and summer low flows. Two rainfall-runoff models will simulate over 10 years of snow hydrology and runoff in nested streams. Processes involved will be also evaluated by mean by means of high frequency sampling of the environmental isotopes 18O and 2H. The paper presents first analysis of available datasets of 18O, 2H, discharge, snowpack and modelling experiments.
M. Zappa, N. Andres, P. Kienzler, D. Näf-Huber, C. Marti, and M. Oplatka
Proc. IAHS, 370, 235–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, 2015
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The most severe threat for the city of Zürich (Switzerland) are flash-floods from the small Sihl river. An assessment using a rainfall-runoff model evaluated more than 40000 extreme flood scenarios. These scenarios identified deficits for the safety of Zürich. The combination of different structural and flood management measures can lead to an optimal safety also in case of unfavorable initial conditions. Pending questions concern the costs, political decisions and the environmental matters.
L. Sold, M. Huss, A. Eichler, M. Schwikowski, and M. Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 9, 1075–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1075-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1075-2015, 2015
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This study presents a method for estimating annual accumulation rates on a temperate Alpine glacier based on the interpretation of internal reflection horizons in helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. In combination with a simple model for firn densification and refreezing of meltwater, GPR can be used not only to complement existing mass balance monitoring programmes but also to retrospectively extend newly initiated time series.
P. Ronco, M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and A. Marcomini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, 2015
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The aim of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying in the Sihl river valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by means of a calibration process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features.
M. Fischer, M. Huss, and M. Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 9, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-525-2015, 2015
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
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Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
H. Machguth and M. Huss
The Cryosphere, 8, 1741–1755, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1741-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1741-2014, 2014
M. Huss and D. Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 8, 1261–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1261-2014, 2014
S. Jörg-Hess, F. Fundel, T. Jonas, and M. Zappa
The Cryosphere, 8, 471–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, 2014
M. Huss, A. Voinesco, and M. Hoelzle
Geogr. Helv., 68, 227–237, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-227-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-227-2013, 2013
D. Farinotti and M. Huss
The Cryosphere, 7, 1707–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1707-2013, 2013
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, 2013
D. Finger, A. Hugentobler, M. Huss, A. Voinesco, H. Wernli, D. Fischer, E. Weber, P.-Y. Jeannin, M. Kauzlaric, A. Wirz, T. Vennemann, F. Hüsler, B. Schädler, and R. Weingartner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3261–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013, 2013
M. Zemp, E. Thibert, M. Huss, D. Stumm, C. Rolstad Denby, C. Nuth, S. U. Nussbaumer, G. Moholdt, A. Mercer, C. Mayer, P. C. Joerg, P. Jansson, B. Hynek, A. Fischer, H. Escher-Vetter, H. Elvehøy, and L. M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1227–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1227-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1227-2013, 2013
M. Huss
The Cryosphere, 7, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-877-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-877-2013, 2013
F. Fundel, S. Jörg-Hess, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 395–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Technical note: RAT – a robustness assessment test for calibrated and uncalibrated hydrological models
Reduction of vegetation-accessible water storage capacity after deforestation affects catchment travel time distributions and increases young water fractions in a headwater catchment
Combining split-sample testing and hidden Markov modelling to assess the robustness of hydrological models
Hydrologically informed machine learning for rainfall–runoff modelling: towards distributed modelling
Development and evaluation of 0.05° terrestrial water storage estimates using Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and assimilation of GRACE data
Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times
Technical note: Hydrology modelling R packages – a unified analysis of models and practicalities from a user perspective
A new fractal-theory-based criterion for hydrological model calibration
The value of water isotope data on improving process understanding in a glacierized catchment on the Tibetan Plateau
Machine learning deciphers CO2 sequestration and subsurface flowpaths from stream chemistry
Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria
Using hydrologic landscape classification and climatic time series to assess hydrologic vulnerability of the western U.S. to climate
Evaluation of random forests for short-term daily streamflow forecasting in rainfall- and snowmelt-driven watersheds
Performance of automated methods for flash flood inundation mapping: a comparison of a digital terrain model (DTM) filling and two hydrodynamic methods
How is Baseflow Index (BFI) impacted by water resource management practices?
A novel method for cold-region streamflow hydrograph separation using GRACE satellite observations
A Bayesian approach to understanding the key factors influencing temporal variability in stream water quality – a case study in the Great Barrier Reef catchments
Projected changes in Rhine River flood seasonality under global warming
Technical note: Diagnostic efficiency – specific evaluation of model performance
How catchment characteristics influence hydrological pathways and travel times in a boreal landscape
Rainfall–runoff prediction at multiple timescales with a single Long Short-Term Memory network
User-oriented hydrological indices for early warning systems with validation using post-event surveys: flood case studies in the Central Apennine District
Space–time variability in soil moisture droughts in the Himalayan region
A multi-sourced assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil moisture in the MARINE flash flood model
Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity – implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation
Impact of karst areas on runoff generation, lateral flow and interbasin groundwater flow at the storm-event timescale
Benchmarking Data-Driven Rainfall-Runoff Models in Great Britain: A comparison of LSTM-based models with four lumped conceptual models
Triple oxygen isotope systematics of evaporation and mixing processes in a dynamic desert lake system
Irrigation, damming, and streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River
Behind the scenes of streamflow model performance
Learning from satellite observations: increased understanding of catchment processes through stepwise model improvement
Diagnosis toward predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins
The era of infiltration
A time-varying parameter estimation approach using split-sample calibration based on dynamic programming
Numerical daemons of hydrological models are summoned by extreme precipitation
A history of TOPMODEL
Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile
A comparison of catchment travel times and storage deduced from deuterium and tritium tracers using StorAge Selection functions
The role and value of distributed precipitation data in hydrological models
Flood spatial coherence, triggers, and performance in hydrological simulations: large-sample evaluation of four streamflow-calibrated models
Effects of spatial resolution of terrain models on modelled discharge and soil loss in Oaxaca, Mexico
Flexible vector-based spatial configurations in land models
Two-stage variational mode decomposition and support vector regression for streamflow forecasting
Predicting probabilities of streamflow intermittency across a temperate mesoscale catchment
Importance of the informative content in the study area when regionalising rainfall-runoff model parameters: the role of nested catchments and gauging station density
Which rainfall score is more informative about the performance in river discharge simulation? A comprehensive assessment on 1318 basins over Europe
Assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) brightness temperature into a large-scale distributed conceptual hydrological model to improve soil moisture predictions: the Murray–Darling basin in Australia as a test case
Frequency and magnitude variability of Yalu River flooding: numerical analyses for the last 1000 years
Assessing the degree of detail of temperature-based snow routines for runoff modelling in mountainous areas in central Europe
Adaptive clustering: reducing the computational costs of distributed (hydrological) modelling by exploiting time-variable similarity among model elements
Pierre Nicolle, Vazken Andréassian, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Charles Perrin, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Coron, and Léonard Santos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5013–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, 2021
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In this note, a new method (RAT) is proposed to assess the robustness of hydrological models. The RAT method is particularly interesting because it does not require multiple calibrations (it is therefore applicable to uncalibrated models), and it can be used to determine whether a hydrological model may be safely used for climate change impact studies. Success at the robustness assessment test is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition of model robustness.
Markus Hrachowitz, Michael Stockinger, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, Heye Bogena, Andreas Lücke, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4887–4915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, 2021
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Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Etienne Guilpart, Vahid Espanmanesh, Amaury Tilmant, and François Anctil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4611–4629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021, 2021
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The stationary assumption in hydrology has become obsolete because of climate changes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. In this paper, numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified by a hidden Markov model (HMM) are used in a differential split-sample testing framework to assess the robustness of a hydrologic model. We illustrate the method on the Senegal River.
Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath, Jayashree Chadalawada, and Vladan Babovic
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4373–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4373-2021, 2021
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Existing hydrological knowledge has been integrated with genetic programming based on a machine learning algorithm (MIKA-SHA) to induce readily interpretable distributed rainfall–runoff models. At present, the model building components of two flexible modelling frameworks (FUSE and SUPERFLEX) represent the elements of hydrological knowledge. The proposed toolkit captures spatial variabilities and automatically induces semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models without any explicit user selections.
Natthachet Tangdamrongsub, Michael F. Jasinski, and Peter J. Shellito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4185-2021, 2021
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Accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is essential for reliable water resource assessments. TWS can be estimated from the Community Atmosphere–Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE), but the resolution is limited to 0.5°. We reconfigure CABLE to improve TWS spatial details from 0.5° to 0.05°. GRACE satellite data are assimilated into CABLE to improve TWS accuracy. Our workflow relies only on publicly accessible data, allowing reproduction of 0.05° TWS in any region.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
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The R programming language has become an important tool for many applications in hydrology. In this study, we provide an analysis of some of the R tools providing hydrological models. In total, two aspects are uniformly investigated, namely the conceptualisation of the models and the practicality of their implementation for end-users. These comparisons aim at easing the choice of R tools for users and at improving their usability for hydrology modelling to support more transferable research.
Zhixu Bai, Yao Wu, Di Ma, and Yue-Ping Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3675–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3675-2021, 2021
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To test our hypothesis that the fractal dimensions of streamflow series can be used to improve the calibration of hydrological models, we designed the E–RD efficiency ratio of fractal dimensions strategy and examined its usability in the calibration of lumped models. The results reveal that, in most aspects, introducing RD into model calibration makes the simulation of streamflow components more reasonable. Also, pursuing a better RD during calibration leads to only a minor decrease in E.
Yi Nan, Lide Tian, Zhihua He, Fuqiang Tian, and Lili Shao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3653–3673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3653-2021, 2021
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This study integrated a water isotope module into the hydrological model THREW. The isotope-aided model was subsequently applied for process understanding in the glacierized watershed of Karuxung river on the Tibetan Plateau. The model was used to quantify the contribution of runoff component and estimate the water travel time in the catchment. Model uncertainties were significantly constrained by using additional isotopic data, improving the process understanding in the catchment.
Andrew R. Shaughnessy, Xin Gu, Tao Wen, and Susan L. Brantley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3397–3409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3397-2021, 2021
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It is often difficult to determine the sources of solutes in streams and how much each source contributes. We developed a new method of unmixing stream chemistry via machine learning. We found that sulfate in three watersheds is related to groundwater flowpaths. Our results emphasize that acid rain reduces a watershed's capacity to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, a key geological control on climate. Our method will help scientists unmix stream chemistry in watersheds where sources are unknown.
Sarah Hanus, Markus Hrachowitz, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Miren Vizcaino, and Roland Kaitna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021
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This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
Chas E. Jones Jr., Scott G. Leibowitz, Keith A. Sawicz, Randy L. Comeleo, Laurel E. Stratton, Philip E. Morefield, and Christopher P. Weaver
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3179–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3179-2021, 2021
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Our research assesses the hydrologic vulnerability of the western U.S. to climate by classifying the landscape based on its physical and climatic characteristics and analyzing climate data. We also apply the approach to examine the vulnerabilities of case studies in the ski and wine industries. We show that the west and its ski areas are vulnerable to changes in snow, while vineyard vulnerability varies. This allows us to consider climatic impacts across landscapes, industries, and stakeholders.
Leo Triet Pham, Lifeng Luo, and Andrew Finley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2997–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2997-2021, 2021
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Model evaluation metrics suggest that RF performs better in snowmelt-driven watersheds. The largest improvements in forecasts compared to benchmark models are found among rainfall-driven watersheds. RF performance deteriorates with increases in catchment slope and soil sandiness. We note disagreement between two popular measures of RF variable importance and recommend jointly considering these measures with the physical processes under study.
Nabil Hocini, Olivier Payrastre, François Bourgin, Eric Gaume, Philippe Davy, Dimitri Lague, Lea Poinsignon, and Frederic Pons
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2979–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2979-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2979-2021, 2021
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Efficient flood mapping methods are needed for large-scale, comprehensive identification of flash flood inundation hazards caused by small upstream rivers. An evaluation of three automated mapping approaches of increasing complexity, i.e., a digital terrain model (DTM) filling and two 1D–2D hydrodynamic approaches, is presented based on three major flash floods in southeastern France. The results illustrate some limits of the DTM filling method and the value of using a 2D hydrodynamic approach.
John P. Bloomfield, Mengyi Gong, Benjamin P. Marchant, Gemma Coxon, and Nans Addor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-259, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Groundwater provides flow, known as baseflow, to surface streams and rivers. It is important as it sustains the flow of many rivers at times of water stress. However, it may be affected by water management practices. Statistical models have been used to show that in particular abstraction of groundwater influences baseflow. Consequently, it is recommended that information and data on groundwater abstraction is explicitly included in future assessments and predictions of baseflow.
Shusen Wang, Junhua Li, and Hazen A. J. Russell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2649-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2649-2021, 2021
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Separating river flow into baseflow and surface runoff provides useful information for hydrology and climate studies, but traditional methods have critical limitations in the lack of physics, identifying snowmelt runoff and watershed size. This study developed a novel model using the GRACE satellite observations to address these limitations. It also includes estimates for watershed hydraulic conductivity and drainable water storage, which help assess aquifer properties and water resources.
Shuci Liu, Dongryeol Ryu, J. Angus Webb, Anna Lintern, Danlu Guo, David Waters, and Andrew W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2663–2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2663-2021, 2021
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Riverine water quality can change markedly at one particular location. This study developed predictive models to represent the temporal variation in stream water quality across the Great Barrier Reef catchments, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which is useful for identifying important factors determining temporal changes in water quality and, in turn, providing critical information for developing management strategies.
Erwin Rottler, Axel Bronstert, Gerd Bürger, and Oldrich Rakovec
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2353-2021, 2021
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The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios was used to assess potential future changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River basin. Results indicate that future changes in flood characteristics are controlled by increases in precipitation sums and diminishing snowpacks. The decreases in snowmelt can counterbalance increasing precipitation, resulting in only small and transient changes in streamflow maxima.
Robin Schwemmle, Dominic Demand, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2187–2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2187-2021, 2021
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A better understanding of the reasons why model performance is unsatisfying represents a crucial part for meaningful model evaluation. We propose the novel diagnostic efficiency (DE) measure and diagnostic polar plots. The proposed evaluation approach provides a diagnostic tool for model developers and model users and facilitates interpretation of model performance.
Elin Jutebring Sterte, Fredrik Lidman, Emma Lindborg, Ylva Sjöberg, and Hjalmar Laudon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2133–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2133-2021, 2021
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A numerical model was used to estimate annual and seasonal mean travel times across 14 long-term nested monitored catchments in the boreal region. The estimated travel times and young water fractions were consistent with observed variations of base cation concentration and stable water isotopes, δ18O. Soil type was the most important factor regulating the variation in mean travel times among sub-catchments, while the areal coverage of mires increased the young water fraction.
Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Grey Nearing, Jimmy Lin, and Sepp Hochreiter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2045-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2045-2021, 2021
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We present multi-timescale Short-Term Memory (MTS-LSTM), a machine learning approach that predicts discharge at multiple timescales within one model. MTS-LSTM is significantly more accurate than the US National Water Model and computationally more efficient than an individual LSTM model per timescale. Further, MTS-LSTM can process different input variables at different timescales, which is important as the lead time of meteorological forecasts often depends on their temporal resolution.
Annalina Lombardi, Valentina Colaiuda, Marco Verdecchia, and Barbara Tomassetti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1969–1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1969-2021, 2021
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The paper presents a modelling approach for the assessment of extremes in the hydrological cycle at a multi-catchment scale. It describes two new hydrological stress indices, innovative instruments that could be used by Civil Protection operators, for flood mapping in early warning systems. The main advantage in using the proposed indices is the possibility of displaying hydrological-stress information over any geographical domain.
Santosh Nepal, Saurav Pradhananga, Narayan Kumar Shrestha, Sven Kralisch, Jayandra P. Shrestha, and Manfred Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1761–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1761-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1761-2021, 2021
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This paper examines soil moisture drought in the central Himalayan region by applying a process-based hydrological model. Our results suggest that both the occurrence and severity of droughts have increased over the last 3 decades, especially in the winter and
pre-monsoon seasons. The insights provided into the frequency, spatial coverage, and severity of the drought conditions can provide valuable inputs towards improved management of water resources and greater agricultural productivity.
Judith Eeckman, Hélène Roux, Audrey Douinot, Bertrand Bonan, and Clément Albergel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, 2021
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The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Lieke Anna Melsen and Björn Guse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021, 2021
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Certain hydrological processes become more or less relevant when the climate changes. This should also be visible in the models that are used for long-term predictions of river flow as a consequence of climate change. We investigated this using three different models. The change in relevance should be reflected in how the parameters of the models are determined. In the different models, different processes become more relevant in the future: they disagree with each other.
Martin Le Mesnil, Roger Moussa, Jean-Baptiste Charlier, and Yvan Caballero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1259–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1259-2021, 2021
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We present an innovative approach consisting of the statistical analysis and comparison of 15 hydrological descriptors, characterizing catchment response to rainfall events. The distribution of these descriptors is analysed according to the occurrence of karst areas inside 108 catchments. It shows that karst impacts on storm events mainly result in river losses and that interbasin groundwater flows can represent a significant part of the catchment water budget ah the event timescale.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-127, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We used deep learning models to simulate the amount of water travelling through a river channel (discharge), based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We compared the performance of these deep learning models to four models that are currently used by hydrologists and engineers. We tested how these different methods simulate discharge at 518 points around Great Britain. Ultimately, we found that the deep learning models produced more accurate simulations.
Claudia Voigt, Daniel Herwartz, Cristina Dorador, and Michael Staubwasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1211–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1211-2021, 2021
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Evaporation trends in the stable isotope composition (18O/16O, 17O/16O, 2H/1H) of throughflow ponds in a hydrologically complex and seasonally dynamic lake system can be reliably predicted by the classic Craig–Gordon isotope evaporation model. We demonstrate that the novel 17O-excess parameter is capable of resolving different types of evaporation with and without recharge and of identifying mixing processes that cannot be resolved using the classic δ2H–δ18O system alone.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
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We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
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We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Yuan Gao, Lili Yao, Ni-Bin Chang, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 945–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-945-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-945-2021, 2021
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Mean annual runoff prediction is of great interest but still poses a challenge in ungauged basins. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the data requirement for predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins based on a water balance model, in which the effects of climate variability are explicitly represented. The performance of predicting mean annual runoff can be improved by employing better estimation of soil water storage capacity including the effects of soil, topography, and bedrock.
Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 851–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-851-2021, 2021
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Inspired by a quotation from Howard Cook in 1946, this paper traces the evolution of the infiltration theory of runoff from the work of Robert Horton and LeRoy Sherman in the 1930s to the early digital computer models of the 1970s and 1980s. Reconsideration of the perceptual model for many catchments, partly as a result of the greater appreciation of the contribution of subsurface flows to the hydrograph indicated by tracer studies, suggests a reconsideration of hydrological nomenclature.
Xiaojing Zhang and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 711–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-711-2021, 2021
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Rainfall–runoff models are useful tools for streamflow simulation. However, efforts are needed to investigate how their parameters vary in response to climate changes and human activities. Thus, this study proposes a new method for estimating time-varying parameters, by considering both simulation accuracy and parameter continuity. The results show the proposed method is effective for identifying temporal variations of parameters and can simultaneously provide good streamflow simulation.
Peter T. La Follette, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nans Addor, Martyn Clark, Koen Jansen, and Lieke A. Melsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-28, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Hydrological models are useful tools that allow us to predict distributions and movement of water. A variety of numerical methods are used by these models. We demonstrate which numerical methods yield large errors when subject to extreme precipitation. As the climate is changing such that extreme precipitation is more common, we find that some numerical methods are better suited for use in hydrological models. Also, we find that many current hydrological models use relatively inaccurate methods.
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
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The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021
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The megadrought experienced in Chile (2010–2020) has led to larger than expected water deficits. By analysing 106 basins with snow-/rainfall regimes, we relate such intensification with the hydrological memory of the basins, explained by snow and groundwater. Snow-dominated basins have larger memory and thus accumulate the effect of persistent precipitation deficits more strongly than pluvial basins. This notably affects central Chile, a water-limited region where most of the population lives.
Nicolas Björn Rodriguez, Laurent Pfister, Erwin Zehe, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 401–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-401-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-401-2021, 2021
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Different parts of water have often been used as tracers to determine the age of water in streams. The stable tracers, such as deuterium, are thought to be unable to reveal old water compared to the radioactive tracer called tritium. We used both tracers, measured in precipitation and in a stream in Luxembourg, to show that this is not necessarily true. It is, in fact, advantageous to use the two tracers together, and we recommend systematically using tritium in future studies.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
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This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
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Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Sergio Naranjo, Francelino A. Rodrigues Jr., Georg Cadisch, Santiago Lopez-Ridaura, Mariela Fuentes, and Carsten Marohn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-641, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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This study pioneers in the integration of a spatially explicit soil erosion model with plot and watershed scale characterization and high resolution drone imagery to assess the effect of spatial resolution DTM on discharge and soil loss. Results showed reduction of slope due to resampling-down of DTM. High resolution translates into higher slope, denser fluvial system, and extremer values of soil loss reducing time of concentration and increasing soil loss at the outlet. Best resolution was 4 m.
Shervan Gharari, Martyn P. Clark, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jefferson S. Wong, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5953–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5953-2020, 2020
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This work explores the trade-off between the accuracy of the representation of geospatial data, such as land cover, soil type, and elevation zones, in a land (surface) model and its performance in the context of modeling. We used a vector-based setup instead of the commonly used grid-based setup to identify this trade-off. We also assessed the often neglected parameter uncertainty and its impact on the land model simulations.
Ganggang Zuo, Jungang Luo, Ni Wang, Yani Lian, and Xinxin He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5491–5518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5491-2020, 2020
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A two-stage variational mode decomposition and support vector regression is designed to reduce the influence of boundary effects without removing or correcting boundary-affected decompositions. The proposed model significantly reduces the boundary effect consequences, saves modeling time and computation resources, barely overfits the calibration samples, and forecasts monthly runoff reasonably well compared to the benchmark models.
Nils Hinrich Kaplan, Theresa Blume, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5453–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5453-2020, 2020
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In recent decades the demand for detailed information of spatial and temporal dynamics of the stream network has grown in the fields of eco-hydrology and extreme flow prediction. We use temporal streamflow intermittency data obtained at various sites using innovative sensing technology as well as spatial predictors to predict and map probabilities of streamflow intermittency. This approach has the potential to provide intermittency maps for hydrological modelling and management practices.
Mattia Neri, Juraj Parajka, and Elena Toth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5149–5171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5149-2020, 2020
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One of the most informative ways to gain information on ungauged river sections is through the implementation of a rainfall-runoff model, exploiting the information collected in gauged catchments in the study area. This study analyses how the performances of different model regionalisation approaches are influenced by the informative content of the available regional data set, in order to identify the methods that are more suitable for the data availability in the region.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, 2020
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The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
Renaud Hostache, Dominik Rains, Kaniska Mallick, Marco Chini, Ramona Pelich, Hans Lievens, Fabrizio Fenicia, Giovanni Corato, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Patrick Matgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4793–4812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, 2020
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Our objective is to investigate how satellite microwave sensors, particularly Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), may help to reduce errors and uncertainties in soil moisture simulations with a large-scale conceptual hydro-meteorological model. We assimilated a long time series of SMOS observations into a hydro-meteorological model and showed that this helps to improve model predictions. This work therefore contributes to the development of faster and more accurate drought prediction tools.
Hui Sheng, Xiaomei Xu, Jian Hua Gao, Albert J. Kettner, Yong Shi, Chengfeng Xue, Ya Ping Wang, and Shu Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4743–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4743-2020, 2020
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This paper investigates the variability of past flooding by applying a numerical model coupled with historical records of regional climate and anthropogenic activity under the deficiency of observations. We conclude that trends in flooding frequency were predominantly modulated by the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events, which highlights the need for the implementation of effective river engineering measures to counteract increasing flood risks as a result of the future.
Marc Girons Lopez, Marc J. P. Vis, Michal Jenicek, Nena Griessinger, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020
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Snow processes are crucial for runoff in mountainous areas, but their complexity makes water management difficult. Temperature models are widely used as they are simple and do not require much data, but not much thought is usually given to which model to use, which may lead to bad predictions. We studied the impact of many model alternatives and found that a more complex model does not necessarily perform better. Finding which processes are most important in each area is a much better strategy.
Uwe Ehret, Rik van Pruijssen, Marina Bortoli, Ralf Loritz, Elnaz Azmi, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4389–4411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4389-2020, 2020
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In this paper we propose adaptive clustering as a new method for reducing the computational efforts of distributed modelling. It consists of identifying similar-acting model elements during the runtime, clustering them, running the model for just a few representatives per cluster, and mapping their results to the remaining model elements in the cluster. With the example of a hydrological model, we show that this saves considerable computation time, while largely maintaining the output quality.
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Short summary
River flow regimes are expected to change and so are extreme flow regimes. We propose two methods for estimating extreme flow regimes and show on a data set from Switzerland how these extreme regimes are expected to change. Our results show that changes in low- and high-flow regimes are distinct for rainfall- and melt-dominated regions. Our findings provide guidance in water resource planning and management.
River flow regimes are expected to change and so are extreme flow regimes. We propose two...
