Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
Research article
18 Sep 2018
Research article |  | 18 Sep 2018

Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading

Douglas Maraun and Martin Widmann

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Cited articles

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Short summary
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading, because it is typically dominated by internal variability. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted. We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations. Instead, one should evaluate temporal, spatial and process-based aspects.