Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
Research article
 | 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |  | 18 Sep 2018

Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading

Douglas Maraun and Martin Widmann

Related authors

Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy)
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Bhend, J. and Whetton, P.: Consistency of simulated and observed regional changes in temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation, Clim. Change, 118, 799–810, 2013. a
Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., and Phillips, A.: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775–779, 2012. a
Dosio, A. and Paruolo, P.: Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 116, D16106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015934, 2011. a
Efron, B. and Gong, G.: A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation, Am. Stat., 37, 36–48, 1983. a, b
Gangopadhyay, S., Pruitt, T., Brekke, L., and Raff, D.: Hydrologic projections for the Western United States, EOS, 92, 441–442, 2011. a
Download
Short summary
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading, because it is typically dominated by internal variability. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted. We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations. Instead, one should evaluate temporal, spatial and process-based aspects.