Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 18 Sep 2018
| 18 Sep 2018
Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading
Douglas Maraun
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria
Martin Widmann
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading, because it is typically dominated by internal variability. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted. We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations. Instead, one should evaluate temporal, spatial and
process-based aspects.
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations...
