Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
Research article
 | 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |  | 18 Sep 2018

Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading

Douglas Maraun and Martin Widmann

Viewed

Total article views: 4,807 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
3,466 1,228 113 4,807 124 158
  • HTML: 3,466
  • PDF: 1,228
  • XML: 113
  • Total: 4,807
  • BibTeX: 124
  • EndNote: 158
Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Apr 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Apr 2018)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 4,807 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 4,643 with geography defined and 164 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 06 Nov 2025
Download
Short summary
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading, because it is typically dominated by internal variability. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted. We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations. Instead, one should evaluate temporal, spatial and process-based aspects.
Read more
Share