Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4867-2018
Research article
 | 
18 Sep 2018
Research article |  | 18 Sep 2018

Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading

Douglas Maraun and Martin Widmann

Viewed

Total article views: 3,566 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
2,457 1,036 73 3,566 73 74
  • HTML: 2,457
  • PDF: 1,036
  • XML: 73
  • Total: 3,566
  • BibTeX: 73
  • EndNote: 74
Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Apr 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Apr 2018)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 3,566 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 3,388 with geography defined and 178 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Discussed (final revised paper)

Latest update: 14 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
Cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading, because it is typically dominated by internal variability. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted. We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations. Instead, one should evaluate temporal, spatial and process-based aspects.