Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jun 2018
Research article |
| 28 Jun 2018
| 28 Jun 2018
The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system
Karin Mostbauer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Roland Kaitna
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
David Prenner
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Markus Hrachowitz
Water Resources Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
No articles found.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-62, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) significantly changes over multiple decades reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Nienke Tessa Tempel, Laurene Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities thus on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Hongkai Gao, Markus Hrachowitz, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Fabrizio Fenicia, Qiaojuan Xi, Jianyang Xia, Wei Shao, Ge Sun, and Hubert Savenije
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-332, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of root zone is widely used, but still lacks a precise definition. Moreover, its importance in Earth system science is not well elaborated. Here, we clarified its definition with several similar terms, to bridge the multi-disciplinary gap. We underscore the key role of root zone in Earth system, which links biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere. To better represent root zone, we advocate a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-centered modelling.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-292, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their ability to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water, and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in a catchment, we showed that using solute concentrations for calibration improved the consistency of the model. This study demonstrates that hydrochemical data are useful for improving the representation of hydrological systems.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, Emanuele Di Carlo, Franco Catalano, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation largely controls land hydrology by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere through roots and is highly variable in space and time. However, current land surface models have limitations in capturing this variability at a global scale, limiting accurate modeling of land hydrology. We found that satellite-based vegetation variability considerably improved modeled land hydrology and therefore has potential to improve climate predictions of, for example, droughts.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2622, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via vegetation roots, which depends on the extent of the vegetation root system. In this study we quantified the effect of irrigation on the vegetation roots globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the root extent of vegetation, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Andrew Mitchell, Sophia Zubrycky, Scott McDougall, Jordan Aaron, Mylène Jacquemart, Johannes Hübl, Roland Kaitna, and Christoph Graf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1627–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are complex, surging movements of sediment and water. Discharge observations from well-studied debris-flow channels were used as inputs for a numerical modelling study of the downstream effects of chaotic inflows. The results show that downstream impacts are sensitive to inflow conditions. Inflow conditions for predictive modelling are highly uncertain, and our method provides a means to estimate the potential variability in future events.
Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the ability of non-parametric Bayesian networks to reproduce maximum daily discharge in a given month in a catchment when the remaining hydro-meteorological and catchment attributes are known. We show that a saturated network evaluated in an individual catchment can reproduce statistical characteristics of discharge in about ~ 40 % of the cases, while challenges remain when a saturated network considering all the catchments together is evaluated.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Markus Hrachowitz, Michael Stockinger, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, Heye Bogena, Andreas Lücke, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4887–4915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 725–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roots of vegetation largely control the Earth's water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere but are not adequately represented in land surface models, causing uncertainties in modeled water fluxes. We replaced the root parameters in an existing model with more realistic ones that account for a climate control on root development and found improved timing of modeled river discharge. Further extension of our approach could improve modeled water fluxes globally.
Sarah Hanus, Markus Hrachowitz, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Miren Vizcaino, and Roland Kaitna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the absence of discharge data in ungauged basins, remotely sensed river water level data, i.e. altimetry, may provide valuable information to calibrate hydrological models. This study illustrated that for large rivers in data-scarce regions, river altimetry data from multiple locations combined with GRACE data have the potential to fill this gap when combined with estimates of the river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions.
Hongkai Gao, Christian Birkel, Markus Hrachowitz, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Chris Soulsby, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 787–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Supported by large-sample ecological observations, a novel, simple and topography-driven runoff generation module (HSC-MCT) was created. The HSC-MCT is calibration-free, and therefore it can be used to predict in ungauged basins, and has great potential to be generalized at the global scale. Also, it allows us to reproduce the variation of saturation areas, which has great potential to be used for broader hydrological, ecological, climatological, and biogeochemical studies.
Laurène Bouaziz, Albrecht Weerts, Jaap Schellekens, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6415–6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify net intercatchment groundwater flows in the Meuse basin in a complementary three-step approach through (1) water budget accounting, (2) testing a set of conceptual hydrological models and (3) evaluating against remote sensing actual evaporation data. We show that net intercatchment groundwater flows can make up as much as 25 % of mean annual precipitation in the headwaters and should therefore be accounted for in conceptual models to prevent overestimating actual evaporation rates.
Markus Hrachowitz and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Physically based and conceptual models in hydrology are the two endpoints in the spectrum of modelling strategies, mostly differing in their degree of detail in resolving the model domain. Given the limitations both modelling strategies face, we believe that to achieve progress in hydrological modelling, a convergence of these methods is necessary. This would allow us to exploit the respective advantages of the bottom-up and top-down models while limiting their respective uncertainties.
Catchments as meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling
Hubert H. G. Savenije and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The natural environment that we live in is the result of evolution. This does not only apply to ecosystems, but also to the physical environment through which the water flows. This has resulted in the formation of flow patterns that obey sometimes surprisingly simple mathematical laws. Hydrological models should represent the physics of these patterns and should account for the fact that the ecosystem adjusts itself continuously to changing circumstances. Physics-based models are alive!
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
K. Schraml, B. Thomschitz, B. W. McArdell, C. Graf, and R. Kaitna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1483–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we used two different numerical simulation models to replicate two debris-flow events in Austria and compare the range and sensitivity of the model input parameters. We expect that our results contribute to a better application of simulation models for hazard and risk assessment in alpine regions.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
O. Fovet, L. Ruiz, M. Hrachowitz, M. Faucheux, and C. Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the annual hysteretic patterns observed between stream flow and water storage in the saturated and unsaturated zones of a hillslope and a riparian zone. We described these signatures using a hysteresis index and then used this to assess conceptual hydrological models. This led us to identify four hydrological periods and a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters and to provide new information about the model performances.
S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
H. Gao, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Gharari, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1895–1915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, 2014
T. Euser, H. C. Winsemius, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Uhlenbrook, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation based on multimodel structures – a case study over the Xiang River basin in China
A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Advancing understanding of lake–watershed hydrology: a fully coupled numerical model illustrated by Qinghai Lake
Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins
Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate
Deep learning for monthly rainfall–runoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia
On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow
Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems
Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California
Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau
Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records
On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfall–runoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration
Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings
Impacts of climate and land-surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951–2020 in Saxony, Germany
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
A framework for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis for holistic hydrologic modeling using SWAT+
On understanding mountainous carbonate basins of the Mediterranean using parsimonious modeling solutions
Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations
Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Modelling flood frequency and magnitude in a glacially conditioned, heterogeneous landscape: testing the importance of land cover and land use
Enhancing LSTM-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Direct integration of reservoirs' operations in a hydrological model for streamflow estimation: coupling a CLSTM model with MOHID-Land
Altitudinal Control of Isotopic Composition and Application in Understanding Hydrologic Processes in the mid Merced River Catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach
To what extent does river routing matter in hydrological modeling?
Calibrating macroscale hydrological models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins
An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume
airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 Large Ensemble
To What Extent Do Extreme Storm Events Change Future Flood Hazards?
Stable water isotopes and tritium tracers tell the same tale: no evidence for underestimation of catchment transit times inferred by stable isotopes in StorAge Selection (SAS)-function models
Uncertainty in water transit time estimation with StorAge Selection functions and tracer data interpolation
Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality
Metamorphic Testing of Machine Learning and Conceptual Hydrologic Models
Can the combining of wetlands with reservoir operation reduce the risk of future floods and droughts?
Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado
When best is the enemy of good – critical evaluation of performance criteria in hydrological models
The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment
Producing reliable hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs without resorting to meteorological observations
Afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Using normalised difference infrared index patterns to constrain semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models in tropical nested catchments
Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups
Reconstructing five decades of sediment export from two glacierized high-alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, using nonparametric regression
Water and energy budgets over hydrological basins on short and long timescales
Hydrological response to climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region
Incorporating experimentally derived streamflow contributions into model parameterization to improve discharge prediction
Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land-surface conditions influence the availability of fresh water resources. Their impact is quantified with data of 71 catchments in Saxony/Germany, for which distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff, that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Čerkasova, and Jungang Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research highlights.
1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.
2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.
3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.
4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Yuhang Zhang, Aizhong Ye, Bita Analui, Phu Nguyen, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, and Yuxuan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4529–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) models demonstrate similar proficiency in multipoint probabilistic predictions, QRF excels in smaller watersheds and CMAL-LSTM in larger ones. CMAL-LSTM performs better in single-point deterministic predictions, whereas QRF model is more efficient overall.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Pamela E. Tetford and Joseph R. Desloges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3977–3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An efficient regional flood frequency model relates drainage area to discharge, with a major assumption of similar basin conditions. In a landscape with variable glacial deposits and land use, we characterize varying hydrological function using 28 explanatory variables. We demonstrate that (1) a heterogeneous landscape requires objective model selection criteria to optimize the fit of flow data, and (2) incorporating land use as a predictor variable improves the drainage area to discharge model.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-237, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate the spatial distribution information of input variables when implementing LSTM models for streamflow prediction. This paper presents a novel hybrid modeling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise in predicting streamflow at large ungauged basin.
Ana Ramos Oliveira, Tiago Brito Ramos, Lígia Pinto, and Ramiro Neves
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3875–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper intends to demonstrate the adequacy of a hybrid solution to overcome the difficulties related to the incorporation of human behavior when modeling hydrological processes. Two models were implemented, one to estimate the outflow of a reservoir and the other to simulate the hydrological processes of the watershed. With both models feeding each other, results show that the proposed approach significantly improved the streamflow estimation downstream of the reservoir.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-230, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of water falls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow-rain transition (2,000–2,500m) and very vulnerable to shift in the snow-rain ratio.
Zhihua He, Kevin Shook, Christopher Spence, John W. Pomeroy, and Colin Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3525–3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow over the Canadian Prairies. The entire prairie region was divided into seven basin types. We found strong variations of hydrological sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes in different land covers and basins, which suggests that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the prairies.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Dung Trung Vu, Thanh Duc Dang, Francesca Pianosi, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The calibration of hydrological models over extensive spatial domains is often challenged by the lack of data on river discharge and the operations of hydraulic infrastructures. Here, we use satellite data to address the lack of data that could unintentionally bias the calibration process. Our study is underpinned by a computational framework that quantifies this bias and provides a safe approach to the calibration of models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins.
Francesco Fatone, Bartosz Szeląg, Przemysław Kowal, Arthur McGarity, Adam Kiczko, Grzegorz Wałek, Ewa Wojciechowska, Michał Stachura, and Nicolas Caradot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3329–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A novel methodology for the development of a stormwater network performance simulator including advanced risk assessment was proposed. The applied tool enables the analysis of the influence of spatial variability in catchment and stormwater network characteristics on the relation between (SWMM) model parameters and specific flood volume, as an alternative approach to mechanistic models. The proposed method can be used at the stage of catchment model development and spatial planning management.
Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.
Florian Willkofer, Raul Roger Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2019, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates about the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses and benefits from data from a RCM SMILE to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of the Hydrological Bavaria to exploit the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1969, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, flooding is expected to become more frequent globally in the coming decades. Locally, storm-induced channel geometry changes can drastically affect flood hazards, yet rivers are mostly treated as static elements in flood studies. This study tried to gain an understanding of the effects of major storm events on future flood hazards, promoting a framework for incorporating channel conveyance adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Arianna Borriero, Rohini Kumar, Tam V. Nguyen, Jan H. Fleckenstein, and Stefanie R. Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2989–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the uncertainty of the water transit time distribution (TTD) arising from model input (interpolated tracer data) and structure (StorAge Selection, SAS, functions). We found that uncertainty was mainly associated with temporal interpolation, choice of SAS function, nonspatial interpolation, and low-flow conditions. It is important to characterize the specific uncertainty sources and their combined effects on TTD, as this has relevant implications for both water quantity and quality.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-168, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine-learning hydrological models. We found that machine-learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Yanfeng Wu, Jingxuan Sun, Boting Hu, Y. Jun Xu, Alain N. Rousseau, and Guangxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs and wetlands are important regulators of watershed hydrology, which should be considered when projecting floods and droughts. We first coupled wetlands and reservoir operations into a semi-spatially-explicit hydrological model and then applied it in a case study involving a large river basin in northeast China. We found that, overall, the risk of future floods and droughts will increase further even under the combined influence of reservoirs and wetlands.
Peishi Jiang, Pin Shuai, Alexander Sun, Maruti K. Mudunuru, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2621–2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel deep learning approach to estimate the parameters of a computationally expensive hydrological model on only a few hundred realizations. Our approach leverages the knowledge obtained by data-driven analysis to guide the design of the deep learning model used for parameter estimation. We demonstrate this approach by calibrating a state-of-the-art hydrological model against streamflow and evapotranspiration observations at a snow-dominated watershed in Colorado.
Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2397–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2357–2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Powerful hybrid models (called δ or delta models) embrace the fundamental learning capability of AI and can also explain the physical processes. Here we test their performance when applied to regions not in the training data. δ models rivaled the accuracy of state-of-the-art AI models under the data-dense scenario and even surpassed them for the data-sparse one. They generalize well due to the physical structure included. δ models could be ideal candidates for global hydrologic assessment.
Simon Ricard, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Antoine Thiboult, and François Anctil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2375–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. Results confirm that the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. The proposed approach supports the participation of end-users in interpreting the impact of climate change on water resources.
Marcus Edmund Henry Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-138, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Nutchanart Sriwongsitanon, Wasana Jandang, James Williams, Thienchart Suwawong, Ekkarin Maekan, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2149–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed predictive semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models for nested sub-catchments in the upper Ping basin, which yielded better or similar performance compared to calibrated lumped models. The normalised difference infrared index proves to be an effective proxy for distributed root zone moisture capacity over sub-catchments and is well correlated with the percentage of evergreen forest. In validation, soil moisture simulations appeared to be highly correlated with the soil wetness index.
Yuchan Chen, Xiuzhi Chen, Meimei Xue, Chuanxun Yang, Wei Zheng, Jun Cao, Wenting Yan, and Wenping Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the quantification and estimation of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) in the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups. The results show that Pw is closely related to soil moisture and fractional vegetation cover, and the relationship varies across specific hydrologic similarity groups. The overall satisfactory performance of the Pw estimation model improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for global runoff estimation.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, Christoph Mayer, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1841–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a suitable method to reconstruct sediment export from decadal records of hydroclimatic predictors (discharge, precipitation, temperature) and shorter suspended sediment measurements. This lets us fill the knowledge gap on how sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas has responded to climate change. We find positive trends in sediment export from the two investigated nested catchments with step-like increases around 1981 which are linked to crucial changes in glacier melt.
Samantha Petch, Bo Dong, Tristan Quaife, Robert P. King, and Keith Haines
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1723–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravitational measurements of water storage from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) can improve understanding of the water budget. We produce flux estimates over large river catchments based on observations that close the monthly water budget and ensure consistency with GRACE on short and long timescales. We use energy data to provide additional constraints and balance the long-term energy budget. These flux estimates are important for evaluating climate models.
Ting Su, Chiyuan Miao, Qingyun Duan, Jiaojiao Gou, Xiaoying Guo, and Xi Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1477–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) plays an extremely important role in water resources security and ecological and environmental protection in China and even all of Southeast Asia. This study used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrologic model linked with the degree-day factor algorithm to simulate the runoff change in the TRSR. These results will help to guide current and future regulation and management of water resources in the TRSR.
Andreas Hartmann, Jean-Lionel Payeur-Poirier, and Luisa Hopp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We advance our understanding of including information derived from environmental tracers into hydrological modeling. We present a simple approach that integrates streamflow observations and tracer-derived streamflow contributions for model parameter estimation. We consider multiple observed streamflow components and their variation over time to quantify the impact of their inclusion for streamflow prediction at the catchment scale.
Cited articles
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng.
Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Anagnostopoulos, G. G., Fatichi, S., and Burlando, P.: An advanced
process-based distributed model for the investigation of rainfall-induced
landslides: The effect of process representation and boundary conditions,
Water Resour. Res., 51, 7501–7523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016909, 2015.
Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R.,
Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P. D.,
Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre,
O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V.,
Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar,
T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., and
Nieplova, E.: HISTALP – historical instrumental climatological surface time
series of the Greater Alpine Region, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 17–46,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1377, 2007.
Austrian Glacier Inventory: Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric
Sciences, University of Innsbruck, available at:
http://acinn.uibk.ac.at/research/ice-and-climate/projects/agi, last
access: 2 February 2016.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow
landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0, 2010.
Berenguer, M., Sempere-Torres, D., and Hürlimann, M.: Debris-flow
forecasting at regional scale by combining susceptibility mapping and radar
rainfall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 587–602,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-587-2015, 2015.
Berghuijs, W. R., Sivapalan, M., Woods, R. A., and Savenije, H. H.: Patterns
of similarity of seasonal water balances: A window into streamflow
variability over a range of time scales, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5638–5661,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015692, 2014.
Berti, M. and Simoni, A.: Experimental evidences and numerical modelling of
debris flow initiated by channel runoff, Landslides, 2, 171–182,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0062-4, 2005.
Berti, M., Genevois, R., Simoni, A., and Tecca, P. R.: Field observations of
a debris flow event in the Dolomites, Geomorphology 29, 265–274,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00018-5, 1999.
Berti, M., Martina, M. L. V., Franceschini, S., Pignone, S., Simoni, A., and
Pizziolo, M.: Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence
using a Bayesian approach, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F04006,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JF002367, 2012.
Beven, K.: Changing ideas in hydrology – the case of physically based
models, J. Hydrol., 105, 157–172, 1989.
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320,
18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006a.
Beven, K.: Searching for the Holy Grail of scientific hydrology:
Beven, K. J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 2nd Edn., John Wiley
& Sons Inc., Chichester, UK, ISBN: 978-0-470-71459-1, 2012.
Beven, K. J., Almeida, S., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Blazkova, S.,
Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P.
J., Stephenson, D. B., Wagener, T., Watson, M., and Wilkins, K. L.: Epistemic
uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different
natural hazard areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-250, in review, 2017a.
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J.
W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and
Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 2.
What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-251, in review, 2017b.
Bíl, M., Andrášik, R., Zahradníček, P., Kubeček,
J., Sedoník, J., and Štěpánek, P.: Total water content
thresholds for shallow landslides, Outer Western Carpathians, Landslides, 13,
337–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0570-9, 2015.
Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D.: Conceptual modelling to assess how
the interplay of hydrological connectivity, catchment storage and tracer
dynamics controls nonstationary water age estimates, Hydrol. Process., 29,
2956–2969, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10414, 2015.
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on
precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation:
proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18,
31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018.
Bogaard, T. A. and Greco, R.: Landslide hydrology: from hydrology to pore
pressure, WIREs Water, 3, 439–459, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1126, 2016.
Böhm, R., Schöner, W., Auer, I., Hynek, B., Kroisleitner, C., Weyss,
G., and Jurkovic, A.: Gletscher und Abflussverhalten, Bericht zu
Zielvereinbarung 2008/31, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik
(ZAMG), Austria, 2007.
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic
response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: flash floods and debris
flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014.
Braun, M. and Kaitna, R.: Analysis of meteorological trigger conditions for
debris flows on a daily time scale, in: Debris flows: risks, forecast,
protection: Materials of IV International Conference (Russia, Irkutsk –
Arshan village (The Republic of Buriatia), edited by: Makarov, S. A., Atutova, J. V.,
and Shekhovtsov, A. I., Publishing House of Sochava Institute of Geography SB
RAS, Irkutsk, ISBN: 978-5-94797-273-3, 2016.
BMLFUW: Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and
Water Management, inventory of documented mass movements in Austria, last
access: December 2015.
Chitu, Z., Bogaard, T. A., Busuioc, A., Burcea, S., Sandric, I., and Adler,
M. J.: Identifying hydrological pre-conditions and rainfall triggers of slope
failures at catchment scale for 2014 storm events in the Ialomita
Subcarpathians, Romania, Landslides, 14, 419–434,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0740-4, 2017.
Church, M. and Miles, M. J.: Meteorological antecedents to debris flow in
southwestern British Columbia: some case studies, in: Debris
flows/avalanches: Process, Recognition and Mitigation, edited by: Costa, J.
E. and Wieczorek, G. F., Reviews in Engineering Geology, 7, 63–80,
Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado, https://doi.org/10.1130/REG7-p63,
1987.
Ciavolella, M., Bogaard, T. A., Gargano, R., and Greco, R.: Is there
predictive power in hydrological catchment information for regional
landslides hazard assessment?, Proced. Earth Plan. Sc., 16, 195–203,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2016.10.021, 2016.
Clark, M. P., Slater, A. G., Rupp, D. E., Woods, R. A., Vrugt, J. A., Gupta,
H. V., Wagener, T., and Hay, L. E.: Framework for Understanding Structural
Errors (FUSE): A modular framework to diagnose differences between
hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 44, W00B02,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006735, 2008.
Clark, M. P., Kavetski, D., and Fenicia, F.: Pursuing the method of multiple
working hypotheses for hydrological modeling, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W09301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011.
Clark, M. P., Bierkens, M. F. P., Samaniego, L., Woods, R. A., Uijlenhoet,
R., Bennett, K. E., Pauwels, V. R. N., Cai, X., Wood, A. W., and
Peters-Lidard, C. D.: The evolution of process-based hydrologic models:
historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3427–3440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017,
2017.
Coe, J. A., Kinner, D. A., and Godt, J. W.: Initiation conditions for debris
flows generated by runoff at Chalk Cliffs, central Colorado, Geomorphology
96, 270–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.03.017, 2008.
Cohen, J., Ye, H., and Jones, J.: Trends and variability in rain-on-snow
events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7115–7122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065320, 2015.
Conway, H. and Raymond, C. F.: Snow stability during rain, J. Glaciol., 39,
635–642, 1993.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-1990-raster-3,
last access: 2 February 2016a.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-2000-raster-2,,
last access: 2 February 2016b.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-2006-raster-3,
last access: 2 February 2016c.
Criss, R. E. and Winston, W. E.: Do Nash values have value? Discussion and
alternate proposals, Hydrol. Process., 22, 2723–2725, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7072,
2008.
Crozier, M. J.: Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the
antecedent water status model, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 24, 825–833,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199908)24:9<825::AID-ESP14>3.0.CO;2-M, 1999.
Data.gv.at: Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
“b5de6975-417b-4320-afdb-eb2a9e2a1dbf”, available at:
http://data.gv.at/katalog/dataset/b5de6975-417b-4320-afdb-eb2a9e2a1dbf,
last access: 2 February 2016.
Decaulne, A., Sæmundsson, Þ., and Pétursson, O.: Debris flow
triggered by rapid snowmelt: a case study in the Gleiðarhjalli area,
northwestern Iceland, Geogr. Ann. A, 87, 487–500,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0435-3676.2005.00273.x, 2005.
Deganutti, A. M., Marchi, L., and Arattano, M.: Rainfall and debris-flow
occurrence in the Moscardo basin (Italian Alps), in: Debris-flow Hazards
Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, edited by: Wieczorek, G. F.
and Naeser, N. D., Proceedings of the second international conference on
debris flow hazards mitigation, Taipei, Taiwan, 62–72, 16–18 August 2000.
Dhakal, A. S. and Sidle, R. C.: Distributed simulations of landslides for
different rainfall conditions, Hydrol. Process., 18, 757–776,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1365, 2004.
Dooge, J. C.: Looking for hydrologic laws, Water Resour. Res., 22, 46–58,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i09Sp0046S, 1986.
Euser, T., Winsemius, H. C., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Uhlenbrook, S., and
Savenije, H. H. G.: A framework to assess the realism of model structures
using hydrological signatures, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013.
Euser, T., Hrachowitz, M., Winsemius, H. C., and Savenije, H. H. G.: The
effect of forcing and landscape distribution on performance and consistency
of model structures: Distribution of forcing and model structures, Hydrol.
Process., 29, 3727–3743, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10445, 2015.
Fan, L., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Effects of soil spatial variability at the
hillslope and catchment scales on characteristics of rainfall-induced
landslides, Water Resour. Res., 52, 1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017758,
2016.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Elements of a flexible
approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical
development, Water Resour. Res., 47, W11510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010174, 2011.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., Savenije, H. H. G., Clark, M. P., Schoups, G.,
Pfister, L., and Freer, J.: Catchment properties, function, and conceptual
model representation: is there a correspondence?, Hydrol. Process., 28,
2451–2467, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9726, 2014.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., Savenije, H. H. G., and Pfister, L.: From
spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of
key modeling decisions, Water Resour. Res., 52, 954–989,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017398, 2016.
Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., Hrachowitz, M., Faucheux, M., and Gascuel-Odoux, C.:
Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in
catchment conceptual models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015.
Gao, H., Ding, Y., Zhao, Q., Hrachowitz, M., and Savenije, H. H. G.: The
importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier
catchment in Central Asia, Hydrol. Process., 31, 2842–2859,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11224, 2017.
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Gao, H., and Savenije, H. H. G.:
Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can
dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18,
4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014.
Glade, T.: Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in different regions of
New Zealand – the soil water status model, Z. Geomorphol., 122, 63–84,
2000.
Glade, T., Crozier, M., and Smith, P.: Applying Probability Determination to
Refine Landslide-triggering Rainfall Thresholds Using an “Empirical
Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 1059–1079,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050017, 2000.
Gregoretti, C. and Fontana, G. D.: The triggering of debris flow due to
channel-bed failure in some alpine headwater basins of the Dolomites:
analyses of critical runoff, Hydrol. Process., 22, 2248–2263,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6821, 2008.
Gupta, H. V., Wagener, T., and Liu, Y.: Reconciling theory with observations:
Elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation, Hydrol. Process., 22,
3802–3813, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6989, 2008.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: Rainfall
thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98, 239–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7, 2007.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: The rainfall
intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an
update, Landslides, 5, 3–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1, 2008.
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from
temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773, 1985.
Harr, R. D.: Some characteristics and consequences of snowmelt during
rainfall in Western Oregon, J. Hydrol., 53, 277–304, 1981.
HD Tirol: Hydrographischer Dienst Tirol (Hydrographic Service Tyrol),
Sachgebiet Hydrographie und Hydrologie, Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung,
available at: http://tirol.gv.at, last access: 25 August
2015.
Hrachowitz, M. and Clark, M. P.: HESS Opinions: The complementary merits of
competing modelling philosophies in hydrology, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21,
3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017.
Hrachowitz, M. and Weiler, M.: Uncertainty of Precipitation Estimates Caused
by Sparse Gauging Networks in a Small, Mountainous Watershed, J. Hydrol.
Eng., 16, 460–471, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000331, 2011.
Hrachowitz, M., Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., Euser, T., Gharari, S., Nijzink, R.,
Freer, J., Savenije, H. H. G., and Gascuel-Odoux, C.: Process consistency in
models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process
complexity, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7445–7469, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015484,
2014.
Hrachowitz, M., Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., and Savenije, H. H.: Transit time
distributions, legacy contamination and variability in biogeochemical
1/fα scaling: how are hydrological response dynamics linked to water
quality at the catchment scale?, Hydrol. Process., 29, 5241–5256,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10546, 2015.
Hübl, J., Totschnig, R., Sitter, F., Mayer, B., and Schneider, A.:
Historische Ereignisse – Band 2: Auswertung von Wildbach Schadereignissen in
Westösterreich auf Grundlage der Wildbachaufnahmeblätter, IAN Report
111, Band 2, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 2008.
Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., and Picarelli, L.: The Varnes classification of
landslide types: an update, Landslides 11, 167–194,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y, 2014.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour.
Res., 36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27129-5_1, 2000.
Jakeman, A. J. and Hornberger, G. M.: How much complexity is warranted in a
rainfall-runoff model?, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2637–2649, 1993.
Johnson, K. and Sitar, N.: Hydrologic conditions leading to debris-flow
initiation, Can. Geotech. J., 27, 789–801, https://doi.org/10.1139/t90-092, 1990.
Kean, J. W., McCoy, S. W., Tucker, G. E., Staley, D. M., and Coe, J. A.:
Runoff-generated debris flows: Observations and modeling of surge initiation,
magnitude, and frequency, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 118, 2190–2207,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20148, 2013.
Kienholz, H.: Gefahrenbeurteilung und -bewertung – auf dem Weg zu einem
Gesamtkonzept, Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen, 146, 701–725,
1995.
Lambrecht, A. and Kuhn, M.: Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the
last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory, Ann.
Glaciol., 46, 177–184, 2007.
Leavesley, G. H., Markstrom, S. L., Brewer, M. S., and Viger, R. J.: The
modular modeling system (MMS) – The physical process modeling component of a
database-centered decision support system for water and power management, in:
Clean Water: Factors that Influence Its Availability, Quality and Its Use,
edited by: Chow, W., Brocksen, R. W., and Wisniewski, J., Springer the
Netherlands, 303–311, 1996.
Lehmann, P. and Or, D.: Hydromechanical triggering of landslides: From
progressive local failures to mass release, Water Resour. Res., 48, W03535,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010947, 2012.
Mader, H., Steidl, T., and Wimmer, R.: Abflussregime Österreichischer
Fließgewässer: Beitrag zu einer bundesweiten
Fließgewassertypologie, Umweltbundesamt, Monographien, Vol. 82, Wien,
ISBN: 3-85457-336-7, 1996.
Mancarella, D., Doglioni, A., and Simeone, V.: On capillary barrier effects
and debris slide triggering in unsaturated layered covers, Eng. Geol.,
147–148, 14–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.003, 2012.
Marchi, L., Arattano, M., and Deganutti, A. M.: Ten years of debris-flow
monitoring in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps), Geomorphology, 46, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00162-3, 2002.
Marra, F., Destro, E., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Zoccatelli, D., Creutin, J. D.,
Guzzetti, F., and Borga, M.: Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the
identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 21, 4525–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, 2017.
McArdell, B. W., Bartelt, P., and Kowalski, J.: Field observations of basal
forces and fluid pore pressure in a debris flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L07406, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029183, 2007.
McCoy, S. W., Kean, J. W., Coe, J. A., Tucker, G. E., Staley, D. M., and
Wasklewicz, T. A.: Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements
from the headwaters of a steep catchment, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117,
F03016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002278, 2012.
McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Vaché, K., Dunn, S., Grant, G.,
Haggerty, R., Hinz, C., Hooper, R., Kirchner, J., Roderick, M. L., Selker,
J., and Weiler, M.: Moving beyond heterogeneity and process complexity: A
new vision for watershed hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07301,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005467, 2007.
Mergili, M. and Kerschner, H.: Gridded precipitation mapping in mountainous
terrain combining GRASS and R, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 69, 2–17,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2014.992807, 2015.
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the
topographic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30,
1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979, 1994.
Montgomery, D. R., Schmidt, K. M., Dietrich, W. E., and McKean, J.:
Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall:
Implications for modeling slope stability, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114,
F01031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001078, 2009.
Moser, M. and Hohensinn, F.: Geotechnical aspects of soil slips in Alpine
regions, Eng. Geol., 19, 185–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(83)90003-0, 1983.
Nandi, A. and Shakoor, A.: Application of logistic regression model for slope
instability prediction in Cuyahoga River Watershed, Ohio, USA, Georisk, 2,
16–27, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499510701842221, 2008.
Napolitano, E., Fusco, F., Baum, R. L., Godt, J. W., and De Vita, P.: Effect
of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows
in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy),
Landslides, 13, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0647-5, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models: Part I, a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nijzink, R. C., Samaniego, L., Mai, J., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Zink, M.,
Schäfer, D., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: The importance of
topography-controlled sub-grid process heterogeneity and semi-quantitative
prior constraints in distributed hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016a.
Nijzink, R., Hutton, C., Pechlivanidis, I., Capell, R., Arheimer, B., Freer,
J., Han, D., Wagener, T., McGuire, K., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: The
evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step
towards hydrological predictions under change?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20,
4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016b.
Nikolopoulos, E. I., Crema, S., Marchi, L., Marra, F., Guzzetti, F., and
Borga, M.: Impact of uncertainty in rainfall estimation on the identification
of rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence, Geomorphology, 221,
286–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.06.015, 2014.
Oudin, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., and Anctil, F.: Locating the
sources of low-pass behavior within rainfall-runoff models, Water Resour.
Res., 40, W11101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003291, 2004.
Papa, M. N., Medina, V., Ciervo, F., and Bateman, A.: Derivation of critical
rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early
warning systems, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4095–4107,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4095-2013, 2013.
Prancevic, J. P., Lamb, M. P., and Fuller, B. M.: Incipient sediment motion
across the river to debris-flow transition, Geology, 42, 191–194,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G34927.1, 2014.
Reichenbach, P., Mondini, A. C., and Rossi, M.: The influence of land use
change on landslide susceptibility zonation: the Briga catchment test site
(Messina, Italy), Environ. Manage., 54, 1372–1384, 2014.
Rickenmann, D. and Zimmermann, M.: The 1987 debris flows in Switzerland:
documentation and analysis, Geomorphology, 8, 175–189, 1993.
Savenije, H. H. G. and Hrachowitz, M.: HESS Opinions “Catchments as
meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling”, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017.
Schimpf, H.: Untersuchung über das Auftreten beachtlicher
Niederschläge in Österreich, Österreichische Wasserwirtschaft,
22, 121–127, 1970.
Schoups, G., Hopmans, J. W., Young, C. A., Vrugt, J. A., and Wallender, W.
W.: Multi-criteria optimization of a regional spatially-distributed
subsurface water flow model, J. Hydrol., 311, 20–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.01.001, 2005.
Seibert, J.: Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff
model, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 98, 279–293, 1999.
Seibert, J. and Beven, K. J.: Gauging the ungauged basin: how many discharge
measurements are needed?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 883–892,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-883-2009, 2009.
Sidle, R. C. and Ziegler, A. D.: The canopy interception-landslide initiation
conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 651–667,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-651-2017, 2017.
Simoni, S., Zanotti, F., Bertoldi, G., and Rigon, R.: Modelling the
probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows
using GEOtop-FS, Hydrol. Process., 22, 532–545, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6886,
2008.
Sivapalan, M.: Pattern, process and function: Elements of a new unified
theory of hydrologic at the catchment scale, in: Encyclopedia of Hydrological
Sciences, edited by: Anderson, M. G., John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, UK,
1, 193–220, 2005.
Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., and Beniston, M.: Rainfall characteristics
for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences–potential
future evolutions, Climatic Change, 105, 263–280,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0036-6, 2011.
Takahashi, T.: Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous
zones: Soft countermeasures for a disaster, Natural Disaster science, 3,
57–89, 1981.
TIRIS: Tiroler Rauminformationssystem, State of Tyrol, available at:
http://tirol.gv.at/data/datenkatalog, last access: 29 July 2015.
TIWAG: Tiroler Wasserkraft AG (Tyrolean Hydropower Corporation), available
at: http://tiwag.at, last access: 11 September 2015.
Turkington, T., Remaître, A., Ettema, J., Hussin, H., and Westen, C.:
Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate, Climatic Change, 1,
1–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1657-6, 2016.
Valéry, A., Andréssian, V., and Perrin, C.: Regionalization of
precipitation and air temperature over high-altitude catchments – learning
from outliers, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 928–940,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.504676, 2010.
van den Heuvel, F., Goyette, S., Rahman, K., and Stoffel, M.: Circulation
patterns related to debris-flow triggering in the Zermatt valley in current
and future climates, Geomorphology, 272, 127–136,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.12.010, 2016.
von Ruette, J., Papritz, A., Lehmann, P., Rickli, C., and Or, D.: Spatial
statistical modeling of shallow landslides – Validating predictions for
different landslide inventories and rainfall events, Geomorphology, 133,
11–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.06.010, 2011.
von Ruette, J., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Rainfall-triggered shallow
landslides at catchment scale: Threshold mechanics-based modeling for
abruptness and localization, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6266–6285,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20418, 2013.
Wagener, T., Boyle, D. P., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S., Gupta, H. V., and
Sorooshian, S.: A framework for development and application of hydrological
models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 13–26,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-13-2001, 2001.
WGMS: Fluctuations of Glaciers Database, World Glacier Monitoring Service,
Zurich, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-06, 2017.
Wieczorek, G. F. and Glade, T.: Climatic factors influencing occurrence of
debris flows, in: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, edited by:
Jakob, M., and Hungr, O., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 325–362,
https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27129-5_14, 2005.
ZAMG: Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Central Institute
for Meteorology and Geodynamics, available at: http://zamg.ac.at, last
access: 6 October 2015.
Zehe, E., Elsenbeer, H., Lindenmaier, F., Schulz, K., and Blöschl, G.:
Patterns of predictability in hydrological threshold systems, Water Resour.
Res., 43, W07434, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005589, 2007.
Zehe, E., Ehret, U., Pfister, L., Blume, T., Schröder, B., Westhoff, M.,
Jackisch, C., Schymanski, S. J., Weiler, M., Schulz, K., Allroggen, N.,
Tronicke, J., van Schaik, L., Dietrich, P., Scherer, U., Eccard, J.,
Wulfmeyer, V., and Kleidon, A.: HESS Opinions: From response units to
functional units: a thermodynamic reinterpretation of the HRU concept to link
spatial organization and functioning of intermediate scale catchments,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014.
Short summary
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to predict. We applied a hydrological model to link not only precipitation, but also snowmelt, antecedent soil moisture, etc. with debris flow initiation in an Alpine watershed in Austria. Our results highlight the value of this more holistic perspective for developing a better understanding of debris flow initiation.
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to...
