Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jun 2018
Research article |
| 28 Jun 2018
| 28 Jun 2018
The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow-dominated system
Karin Mostbauer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Roland Kaitna
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
David Prenner
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Markus Hrachowitz
Water Resources Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
No articles found.
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, Arjan Droste, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rain gauge networks from personal weather stations (PWSs) have a network density 100 times higher than dedicated rain gauge networks in the Netherlands. However, PWSs are prone to several sources of error, as they are generally not installed and maintained according to international guidelines. This study systematically quantifies and describes the uncertainties arising from PWS rainfall estimates. In particular, the focus is on the highest rainfall accumulations.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Hongkai Gao, Markus Hrachowitz, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Fabrizio Fenicia, Qiaojuan Xi, Jianyang Xia, Wei Shao, Ge Sun, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4477–4499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of the root zone is widely used but lacks a precise definition. Its importance in Earth system science is not well elaborated upon. Here, we clarified its definition with several similar terms to bridge the multi-disciplinary gap. We underscore the key role of the root zone in the Earth system, which links the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere. To better represent the root zone, we advocate for a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-centred modelling.
Wouter R. Berghuijs, Ross A. Woods, Bailey J. Anderson, Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2954, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water balances of catchments will often strongly depend on their state in the recent past but such memory effects may persist at annual timescales. We use global datasets to show that annual memory is typically absent in precipitation but strong in terrestrial water stores and also present evaporation and streamflow (including low flows and floods). Our experiments show that hysteretic models provide behavior that is consistent with these observed memory behaviors.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Magali Ponds, Sarah Hanus, Harry Zekollari, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Gerrit Schoups, Roland Kaitna, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-260, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research examines how future climate changes impact root zone storage, a crucial hydrological model parameter. Root zone storage—the soil water accessible to plants—adapts to climate but is often treated as constant in models. We estimated climate-adapted storage for six Austrian Alps catchments. Although storage increased, streamflow projections showed minimal change, indicating that dynamic root zone representation is less critical in humid regions but warrants more study in arid areas.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-120, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Quantification of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is vital for water resources management. The Budyko Framework, based on aridity and evaporative indices of a catchment, can be an ideal tool for that. However, Recent research highlights deviations of catchments from the expected evaporative index, casting doubt on its reliability. This study quantified deviations of 2387 catchments, finding them minor and predictable. Integrating these into predictions upholds the framework's efficacy.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-292, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their ability to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water, and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in a catchment, we showed that using solute concentrations for calibration improved the consistency of the model. This study demonstrates that hydrochemical data are useful for improving the representation of hydrological systems.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, Emanuele Di Carlo, Franco Catalano, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation largely controls land hydrology by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere through roots and is highly variable in space and time. However, current land surface models have limitations in capturing this variability at a global scale, limiting accurate modeling of land hydrology. We found that satellite-based vegetation variability considerably improved modeled land hydrology and therefore has potential to improve climate predictions of, for example, droughts.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Andrew Mitchell, Sophia Zubrycky, Scott McDougall, Jordan Aaron, Mylène Jacquemart, Johannes Hübl, Roland Kaitna, and Christoph Graf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1627–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are complex, surging movements of sediment and water. Discharge observations from well-studied debris-flow channels were used as inputs for a numerical modelling study of the downstream effects of chaotic inflows. The results show that downstream impacts are sensitive to inflow conditions. Inflow conditions for predictive modelling are highly uncertain, and our method provides a means to estimate the potential variability in future events.
Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the ability of non-parametric Bayesian networks to reproduce maximum daily discharge in a given month in a catchment when the remaining hydro-meteorological and catchment attributes are known. We show that a saturated network evaluated in an individual catchment can reproduce statistical characteristics of discharge in about ~ 40 % of the cases, while challenges remain when a saturated network considering all the catchments together is evaluated.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Markus Hrachowitz, Michael Stockinger, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, Heye Bogena, Andreas Lücke, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4887–4915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 725–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roots of vegetation largely control the Earth's water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere but are not adequately represented in land surface models, causing uncertainties in modeled water fluxes. We replaced the root parameters in an existing model with more realistic ones that account for a climate control on root development and found improved timing of modeled river discharge. Further extension of our approach could improve modeled water fluxes globally.
Sarah Hanus, Markus Hrachowitz, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Miren Vizcaino, and Roland Kaitna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the absence of discharge data in ungauged basins, remotely sensed river water level data, i.e. altimetry, may provide valuable information to calibrate hydrological models. This study illustrated that for large rivers in data-scarce regions, river altimetry data from multiple locations combined with GRACE data have the potential to fill this gap when combined with estimates of the river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions.
Hongkai Gao, Christian Birkel, Markus Hrachowitz, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Chris Soulsby, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 787–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-787-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Supported by large-sample ecological observations, a novel, simple and topography-driven runoff generation module (HSC-MCT) was created. The HSC-MCT is calibration-free, and therefore it can be used to predict in ungauged basins, and has great potential to be generalized at the global scale. Also, it allows us to reproduce the variation of saturation areas, which has great potential to be used for broader hydrological, ecological, climatological, and biogeochemical studies.
Laurène Bouaziz, Albrecht Weerts, Jaap Schellekens, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6415–6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6415-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify net intercatchment groundwater flows in the Meuse basin in a complementary three-step approach through (1) water budget accounting, (2) testing a set of conceptual hydrological models and (3) evaluating against remote sensing actual evaporation data. We show that net intercatchment groundwater flows can make up as much as 25 % of mean annual precipitation in the headwaters and should therefore be accounted for in conceptual models to prevent overestimating actual evaporation rates.
Markus Hrachowitz and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Physically based and conceptual models in hydrology are the two endpoints in the spectrum of modelling strategies, mostly differing in their degree of detail in resolving the model domain. Given the limitations both modelling strategies face, we believe that to achieve progress in hydrological modelling, a convergence of these methods is necessary. This would allow us to exploit the respective advantages of the bottom-up and top-down models while limiting their respective uncertainties.
Catchments as meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling
Hubert H. G. Savenije and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The natural environment that we live in is the result of evolution. This does not only apply to ecosystems, but also to the physical environment through which the water flows. This has resulted in the formation of flow patterns that obey sometimes surprisingly simple mathematical laws. Hydrological models should represent the physics of these patterns and should account for the fact that the ecosystem adjusts itself continuously to changing circumstances. Physics-based models are alive!
Remko Nijzink, Christopher Hutton, Ilias Pechlivanidis, René Capell, Berit Arheimer, Jim Freer, Dawei Han, Thorsten Wagener, Kevin McGuire, Hubert Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is typically treated as a calibration parameter in hydrological models and often considered to remain constant in time. In this paper we test the potential of a recently introduced method to robustly estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities exclusively based on climate data to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage under change (deforestation).
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
K. Schraml, B. Thomschitz, B. W. McArdell, C. Graf, and R. Kaitna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1483–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we used two different numerical simulation models to replicate two debris-flow events in Austria and compare the range and sensitivity of the model input parameters. We expect that our results contribute to a better application of simulation models for hazard and risk assessment in alpine regions.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
O. Fovet, L. Ruiz, M. Hrachowitz, M. Faucheux, and C. Gascuel-Odoux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the annual hysteretic patterns observed between stream flow and water storage in the saturated and unsaturated zones of a hillslope and a riparian zone. We described these signatures using a hysteresis index and then used this to assess conceptual hydrological models. This led us to identify four hydrological periods and a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters and to provide new information about the model performances.
S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
H. Gao, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Gharari, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1895–1915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, 2014
T. Euser, H. C. Winsemius, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, S. Uhlenbrook, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: A large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify the hydrological and climatic drivers
The Significance of the Leaf-Area-Index on the Evapotranspiration Estimation in SWAT-T for Characteristic Land Cover Types of Western Africa
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation based on multimodel structures – a case study over the Xiang River basin in China
A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Advancing understanding of lake–watershed hydrology: a fully coupled numerical model illustrated by Qinghai Lake
Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins
Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate
Deep learning for monthly rainfall–runoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow
Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems
Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California
Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau
Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records
On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfall–runoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration
Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-131, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
ET is computed from vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In Western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented with the leaf-area-index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of LAI for the ET calculation. We take a close look at the LAI-ET interaction and show the relevance to consider both, LAI and ET. Our work contributes to the understanding of the processes of the terrestrial water cycle.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. In this work we investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analysis indicate that adding two vegetation is enough to improve the representation of evaporation, and the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Cited articles
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng.
Geol., 73, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.
Anagnostopoulos, G. G., Fatichi, S., and Burlando, P.: An advanced
process-based distributed model for the investigation of rainfall-induced
landslides: The effect of process representation and boundary conditions,
Water Resour. Res., 51, 7501–7523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016909, 2015.
Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R.,
Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P. D.,
Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre,
O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V.,
Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar,
T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z., and
Nieplova, E.: HISTALP – historical instrumental climatological surface time
series of the Greater Alpine Region, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 17–46,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1377, 2007.
Austrian Glacier Inventory: Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric
Sciences, University of Innsbruck, available at:
http://acinn.uibk.ac.at/research/ice-and-climate/projects/agi, last
access: 2 February 2016.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow
landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0, 2010.
Berenguer, M., Sempere-Torres, D., and Hürlimann, M.: Debris-flow
forecasting at regional scale by combining susceptibility mapping and radar
rainfall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 587–602,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-587-2015, 2015.
Berghuijs, W. R., Sivapalan, M., Woods, R. A., and Savenije, H. H.: Patterns
of similarity of seasonal water balances: A window into streamflow
variability over a range of time scales, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5638–5661,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015692, 2014.
Berti, M. and Simoni, A.: Experimental evidences and numerical modelling of
debris flow initiated by channel runoff, Landslides, 2, 171–182,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0062-4, 2005.
Berti, M., Genevois, R., Simoni, A., and Tecca, P. R.: Field observations of
a debris flow event in the Dolomites, Geomorphology 29, 265–274,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00018-5, 1999.
Berti, M., Martina, M. L. V., Franceschini, S., Pignone, S., Simoni, A., and
Pizziolo, M.: Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence
using a Bayesian approach, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F04006,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JF002367, 2012.
Beven, K.: Changing ideas in hydrology – the case of physically based
models, J. Hydrol., 105, 157–172, 1989.
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320,
18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006a.
Beven, K.: Searching for the Holy Grail of scientific hydrology:
Beven, K. J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 2nd Edn., John Wiley
& Sons Inc., Chichester, UK, ISBN: 978-0-470-71459-1, 2012.
Beven, K. J., Almeida, S., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Blazkova, S.,
Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P.
J., Stephenson, D. B., Wagener, T., Watson, M., and Wilkins, K. L.: Epistemic
uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different
natural hazard areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-250, in review, 2017a.
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J.
W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and
Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 2.
What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-251, in review, 2017b.
Bíl, M., Andrášik, R., Zahradníček, P., Kubeček,
J., Sedoník, J., and Štěpánek, P.: Total water content
thresholds for shallow landslides, Outer Western Carpathians, Landslides, 13,
337–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0570-9, 2015.
Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D.: Conceptual modelling to assess how
the interplay of hydrological connectivity, catchment storage and tracer
dynamics controls nonstationary water age estimates, Hydrol. Process., 29,
2956–2969, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10414, 2015.
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on
precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation:
proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18,
31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018.
Bogaard, T. A. and Greco, R.: Landslide hydrology: from hydrology to pore
pressure, WIREs Water, 3, 439–459, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1126, 2016.
Böhm, R., Schöner, W., Auer, I., Hynek, B., Kroisleitner, C., Weyss,
G., and Jurkovic, A.: Gletscher und Abflussverhalten, Bericht zu
Zielvereinbarung 2008/31, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik
(ZAMG), Austria, 2007.
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic
response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: flash floods and debris
flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014.
Braun, M. and Kaitna, R.: Analysis of meteorological trigger conditions for
debris flows on a daily time scale, in: Debris flows: risks, forecast,
protection: Materials of IV International Conference (Russia, Irkutsk –
Arshan village (The Republic of Buriatia), edited by: Makarov, S. A., Atutova, J. V.,
and Shekhovtsov, A. I., Publishing House of Sochava Institute of Geography SB
RAS, Irkutsk, ISBN: 978-5-94797-273-3, 2016.
BMLFUW: Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and
Water Management, inventory of documented mass movements in Austria, last
access: December 2015.
Chitu, Z., Bogaard, T. A., Busuioc, A., Burcea, S., Sandric, I., and Adler,
M. J.: Identifying hydrological pre-conditions and rainfall triggers of slope
failures at catchment scale for 2014 storm events in the Ialomita
Subcarpathians, Romania, Landslides, 14, 419–434,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0740-4, 2017.
Church, M. and Miles, M. J.: Meteorological antecedents to debris flow in
southwestern British Columbia: some case studies, in: Debris
flows/avalanches: Process, Recognition and Mitigation, edited by: Costa, J.
E. and Wieczorek, G. F., Reviews in Engineering Geology, 7, 63–80,
Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado, https://doi.org/10.1130/REG7-p63,
1987.
Ciavolella, M., Bogaard, T. A., Gargano, R., and Greco, R.: Is there
predictive power in hydrological catchment information for regional
landslides hazard assessment?, Proced. Earth Plan. Sc., 16, 195–203,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2016.10.021, 2016.
Clark, M. P., Slater, A. G., Rupp, D. E., Woods, R. A., Vrugt, J. A., Gupta,
H. V., Wagener, T., and Hay, L. E.: Framework for Understanding Structural
Errors (FUSE): A modular framework to diagnose differences between
hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 44, W00B02,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006735, 2008.
Clark, M. P., Kavetski, D., and Fenicia, F.: Pursuing the method of multiple
working hypotheses for hydrological modeling, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W09301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011.
Clark, M. P., Bierkens, M. F. P., Samaniego, L., Woods, R. A., Uijlenhoet,
R., Bennett, K. E., Pauwels, V. R. N., Cai, X., Wood, A. W., and
Peters-Lidard, C. D.: The evolution of process-based hydrologic models:
historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3427–3440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017,
2017.
Coe, J. A., Kinner, D. A., and Godt, J. W.: Initiation conditions for debris
flows generated by runoff at Chalk Cliffs, central Colorado, Geomorphology
96, 270–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.03.017, 2008.
Cohen, J., Ye, H., and Jones, J.: Trends and variability in rain-on-snow
events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7115–7122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065320, 2015.
Conway, H. and Raymond, C. F.: Snow stability during rain, J. Glaciol., 39,
635–642, 1993.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-1990-raster-3,
last access: 2 February 2016a.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-2000-raster-2,,
last access: 2 February 2016b.
CORINE Land cover: European Environment Agency, European Union, available at:
http://eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/corine-land-cover-2006-raster-3,
last access: 2 February 2016c.
Criss, R. E. and Winston, W. E.: Do Nash values have value? Discussion and
alternate proposals, Hydrol. Process., 22, 2723–2725, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7072,
2008.
Crozier, M. J.: Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the
antecedent water status model, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 24, 825–833,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199908)24:9<825::AID-ESP14>3.0.CO;2-M, 1999.
Data.gv.at: Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
“b5de6975-417b-4320-afdb-eb2a9e2a1dbf”, available at:
http://data.gv.at/katalog/dataset/b5de6975-417b-4320-afdb-eb2a9e2a1dbf,
last access: 2 February 2016.
Decaulne, A., Sæmundsson, Þ., and Pétursson, O.: Debris flow
triggered by rapid snowmelt: a case study in the Gleiðarhjalli area,
northwestern Iceland, Geogr. Ann. A, 87, 487–500,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0435-3676.2005.00273.x, 2005.
Deganutti, A. M., Marchi, L., and Arattano, M.: Rainfall and debris-flow
occurrence in the Moscardo basin (Italian Alps), in: Debris-flow Hazards
Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, edited by: Wieczorek, G. F.
and Naeser, N. D., Proceedings of the second international conference on
debris flow hazards mitigation, Taipei, Taiwan, 62–72, 16–18 August 2000.
Dhakal, A. S. and Sidle, R. C.: Distributed simulations of landslides for
different rainfall conditions, Hydrol. Process., 18, 757–776,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1365, 2004.
Dooge, J. C.: Looking for hydrologic laws, Water Resour. Res., 22, 46–58,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i09Sp0046S, 1986.
Euser, T., Winsemius, H. C., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Uhlenbrook, S., and
Savenije, H. H. G.: A framework to assess the realism of model structures
using hydrological signatures, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013.
Euser, T., Hrachowitz, M., Winsemius, H. C., and Savenije, H. H. G.: The
effect of forcing and landscape distribution on performance and consistency
of model structures: Distribution of forcing and model structures, Hydrol.
Process., 29, 3727–3743, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10445, 2015.
Fan, L., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Effects of soil spatial variability at the
hillslope and catchment scales on characteristics of rainfall-induced
landslides, Water Resour. Res., 52, 1781–1799, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017758,
2016.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Elements of a flexible
approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical
development, Water Resour. Res., 47, W11510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010174, 2011.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., Savenije, H. H. G., Clark, M. P., Schoups, G.,
Pfister, L., and Freer, J.: Catchment properties, function, and conceptual
model representation: is there a correspondence?, Hydrol. Process., 28,
2451–2467, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9726, 2014.
Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., Savenije, H. H. G., and Pfister, L.: From
spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of
key modeling decisions, Water Resour. Res., 52, 954–989,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017398, 2016.
Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., Hrachowitz, M., Faucheux, M., and Gascuel-Odoux, C.:
Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in
catchment conceptual models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 105–123,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-105-2015, 2015.
Gao, H., Ding, Y., Zhao, Q., Hrachowitz, M., and Savenije, H. H. G.: The
importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier
catchment in Central Asia, Hydrol. Process., 31, 2842–2859,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11224, 2017.
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Gao, H., and Savenije, H. H. G.:
Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can
dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18,
4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014.
Glade, T.: Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in different regions of
New Zealand – the soil water status model, Z. Geomorphol., 122, 63–84,
2000.
Glade, T., Crozier, M., and Smith, P.: Applying Probability Determination to
Refine Landslide-triggering Rainfall Thresholds Using an “Empirical
Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model”, Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 1059–1079,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050017, 2000.
Gregoretti, C. and Fontana, G. D.: The triggering of debris flow due to
channel-bed failure in some alpine headwater basins of the Dolomites:
analyses of critical runoff, Hydrol. Process., 22, 2248–2263,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6821, 2008.
Gupta, H. V., Wagener, T., and Liu, Y.: Reconciling theory with observations:
Elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation, Hydrol. Process., 22,
3802–3813, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6989, 2008.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: Rainfall
thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98, 239–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7, 2007.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: The rainfall
intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an
update, Landslides, 5, 3–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1, 2008.
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from
temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773, 1985.
Harr, R. D.: Some characteristics and consequences of snowmelt during
rainfall in Western Oregon, J. Hydrol., 53, 277–304, 1981.
HD Tirol: Hydrographischer Dienst Tirol (Hydrographic Service Tyrol),
Sachgebiet Hydrographie und Hydrologie, Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung,
available at: http://tirol.gv.at, last access: 25 August
2015.
Hrachowitz, M. and Clark, M. P.: HESS Opinions: The complementary merits of
competing modelling philosophies in hydrology, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21,
3953–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3953-2017, 2017.
Hrachowitz, M. and Weiler, M.: Uncertainty of Precipitation Estimates Caused
by Sparse Gauging Networks in a Small, Mountainous Watershed, J. Hydrol.
Eng., 16, 460–471, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000331, 2011.
Hrachowitz, M., Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., Euser, T., Gharari, S., Nijzink, R.,
Freer, J., Savenije, H. H. G., and Gascuel-Odoux, C.: Process consistency in
models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process
complexity, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7445–7469, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015484,
2014.
Hrachowitz, M., Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., and Savenije, H. H.: Transit time
distributions, legacy contamination and variability in biogeochemical
1/fα scaling: how are hydrological response dynamics linked to water
quality at the catchment scale?, Hydrol. Process., 29, 5241–5256,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10546, 2015.
Hübl, J., Totschnig, R., Sitter, F., Mayer, B., and Schneider, A.:
Historische Ereignisse – Band 2: Auswertung von Wildbach Schadereignissen in
Westösterreich auf Grundlage der Wildbachaufnahmeblätter, IAN Report
111, Band 2, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 2008.
Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., and Picarelli, L.: The Varnes classification of
landslide types: an update, Landslides 11, 167–194,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y, 2014.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour.
Res., 36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27129-5_1, 2000.
Jakeman, A. J. and Hornberger, G. M.: How much complexity is warranted in a
rainfall-runoff model?, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2637–2649, 1993.
Johnson, K. and Sitar, N.: Hydrologic conditions leading to debris-flow
initiation, Can. Geotech. J., 27, 789–801, https://doi.org/10.1139/t90-092, 1990.
Kean, J. W., McCoy, S. W., Tucker, G. E., Staley, D. M., and Coe, J. A.:
Runoff-generated debris flows: Observations and modeling of surge initiation,
magnitude, and frequency, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 118, 2190–2207,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20148, 2013.
Kienholz, H.: Gefahrenbeurteilung und -bewertung – auf dem Weg zu einem
Gesamtkonzept, Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen, 146, 701–725,
1995.
Lambrecht, A. and Kuhn, M.: Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the
last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory, Ann.
Glaciol., 46, 177–184, 2007.
Leavesley, G. H., Markstrom, S. L., Brewer, M. S., and Viger, R. J.: The
modular modeling system (MMS) – The physical process modeling component of a
database-centered decision support system for water and power management, in:
Clean Water: Factors that Influence Its Availability, Quality and Its Use,
edited by: Chow, W., Brocksen, R. W., and Wisniewski, J., Springer the
Netherlands, 303–311, 1996.
Lehmann, P. and Or, D.: Hydromechanical triggering of landslides: From
progressive local failures to mass release, Water Resour. Res., 48, W03535,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010947, 2012.
Mader, H., Steidl, T., and Wimmer, R.: Abflussregime Österreichischer
Fließgewässer: Beitrag zu einer bundesweiten
Fließgewassertypologie, Umweltbundesamt, Monographien, Vol. 82, Wien,
ISBN: 3-85457-336-7, 1996.
Mancarella, D., Doglioni, A., and Simeone, V.: On capillary barrier effects
and debris slide triggering in unsaturated layered covers, Eng. Geol.,
147–148, 14–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.003, 2012.
Marchi, L., Arattano, M., and Deganutti, A. M.: Ten years of debris-flow
monitoring in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps), Geomorphology, 46, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00162-3, 2002.
Marra, F., Destro, E., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Zoccatelli, D., Creutin, J. D.,
Guzzetti, F., and Borga, M.: Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the
identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 21, 4525–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, 2017.
McArdell, B. W., Bartelt, P., and Kowalski, J.: Field observations of basal
forces and fluid pore pressure in a debris flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L07406, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029183, 2007.
McCoy, S. W., Kean, J. W., Coe, J. A., Tucker, G. E., Staley, D. M., and
Wasklewicz, T. A.: Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements
from the headwaters of a steep catchment, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117,
F03016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002278, 2012.
McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Vaché, K., Dunn, S., Grant, G.,
Haggerty, R., Hinz, C., Hooper, R., Kirchner, J., Roderick, M. L., Selker,
J., and Weiler, M.: Moving beyond heterogeneity and process complexity: A
new vision for watershed hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07301,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005467, 2007.
Mergili, M. and Kerschner, H.: Gridded precipitation mapping in mountainous
terrain combining GRASS and R, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 69, 2–17,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2014.992807, 2015.
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the
topographic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30,
1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979, 1994.
Montgomery, D. R., Schmidt, K. M., Dietrich, W. E., and McKean, J.:
Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall:
Implications for modeling slope stability, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114,
F01031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001078, 2009.
Moser, M. and Hohensinn, F.: Geotechnical aspects of soil slips in Alpine
regions, Eng. Geol., 19, 185–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(83)90003-0, 1983.
Nandi, A. and Shakoor, A.: Application of logistic regression model for slope
instability prediction in Cuyahoga River Watershed, Ohio, USA, Georisk, 2,
16–27, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499510701842221, 2008.
Napolitano, E., Fusco, F., Baum, R. L., Godt, J. W., and De Vita, P.: Effect
of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows
in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy),
Landslides, 13, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0647-5, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models: Part I, a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nijzink, R. C., Samaniego, L., Mai, J., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Zink, M.,
Schäfer, D., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: The importance of
topography-controlled sub-grid process heterogeneity and semi-quantitative
prior constraints in distributed hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016a.
Nijzink, R., Hutton, C., Pechlivanidis, I., Capell, R., Arheimer, B., Freer,
J., Han, D., Wagener, T., McGuire, K., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: The
evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step
towards hydrological predictions under change?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20,
4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016b.
Nikolopoulos, E. I., Crema, S., Marchi, L., Marra, F., Guzzetti, F., and
Borga, M.: Impact of uncertainty in rainfall estimation on the identification
of rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence, Geomorphology, 221,
286–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.06.015, 2014.
Oudin, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., and Anctil, F.: Locating the
sources of low-pass behavior within rainfall-runoff models, Water Resour.
Res., 40, W11101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003291, 2004.
Papa, M. N., Medina, V., Ciervo, F., and Bateman, A.: Derivation of critical
rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides as a tool for debris flow early
warning systems, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4095–4107,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4095-2013, 2013.
Prancevic, J. P., Lamb, M. P., and Fuller, B. M.: Incipient sediment motion
across the river to debris-flow transition, Geology, 42, 191–194,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G34927.1, 2014.
Reichenbach, P., Mondini, A. C., and Rossi, M.: The influence of land use
change on landslide susceptibility zonation: the Briga catchment test site
(Messina, Italy), Environ. Manage., 54, 1372–1384, 2014.
Rickenmann, D. and Zimmermann, M.: The 1987 debris flows in Switzerland:
documentation and analysis, Geomorphology, 8, 175–189, 1993.
Savenije, H. H. G. and Hrachowitz, M.: HESS Opinions “Catchments as
meta-organisms – a new blueprint for hydrological modelling”, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 21, 1107–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1107-2017, 2017.
Schimpf, H.: Untersuchung über das Auftreten beachtlicher
Niederschläge in Österreich, Österreichische Wasserwirtschaft,
22, 121–127, 1970.
Schoups, G., Hopmans, J. W., Young, C. A., Vrugt, J. A., and Wallender, W.
W.: Multi-criteria optimization of a regional spatially-distributed
subsurface water flow model, J. Hydrol., 311, 20–48,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.01.001, 2005.
Seibert, J.: Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff
model, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 98, 279–293, 1999.
Seibert, J. and Beven, K. J.: Gauging the ungauged basin: how many discharge
measurements are needed?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 883–892,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-883-2009, 2009.
Sidle, R. C. and Ziegler, A. D.: The canopy interception-landslide initiation
conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 651–667,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-651-2017, 2017.
Simoni, S., Zanotti, F., Bertoldi, G., and Rigon, R.: Modelling the
probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows
using GEOtop-FS, Hydrol. Process., 22, 532–545, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6886,
2008.
Sivapalan, M.: Pattern, process and function: Elements of a new unified
theory of hydrologic at the catchment scale, in: Encyclopedia of Hydrological
Sciences, edited by: Anderson, M. G., John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, UK,
1, 193–220, 2005.
Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., and Beniston, M.: Rainfall characteristics
for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences–potential
future evolutions, Climatic Change, 105, 263–280,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0036-6, 2011.
Takahashi, T.: Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous
zones: Soft countermeasures for a disaster, Natural Disaster science, 3,
57–89, 1981.
TIRIS: Tiroler Rauminformationssystem, State of Tyrol, available at:
http://tirol.gv.at/data/datenkatalog, last access: 29 July 2015.
TIWAG: Tiroler Wasserkraft AG (Tyrolean Hydropower Corporation), available
at: http://tiwag.at, last access: 11 September 2015.
Turkington, T., Remaître, A., Ettema, J., Hussin, H., and Westen, C.:
Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate, Climatic Change, 1,
1–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1657-6, 2016.
Valéry, A., Andréssian, V., and Perrin, C.: Regionalization of
precipitation and air temperature over high-altitude catchments – learning
from outliers, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 928–940,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.504676, 2010.
van den Heuvel, F., Goyette, S., Rahman, K., and Stoffel, M.: Circulation
patterns related to debris-flow triggering in the Zermatt valley in current
and future climates, Geomorphology, 272, 127–136,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.12.010, 2016.
von Ruette, J., Papritz, A., Lehmann, P., Rickli, C., and Or, D.: Spatial
statistical modeling of shallow landslides – Validating predictions for
different landslide inventories and rainfall events, Geomorphology, 133,
11–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.06.010, 2011.
von Ruette, J., Lehmann, P., and Or, D.: Rainfall-triggered shallow
landslides at catchment scale: Threshold mechanics-based modeling for
abruptness and localization, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6266–6285,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20418, 2013.
Wagener, T., Boyle, D. P., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S., Gupta, H. V., and
Sorooshian, S.: A framework for development and application of hydrological
models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 13–26,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-13-2001, 2001.
WGMS: Fluctuations of Glaciers Database, World Glacier Monitoring Service,
Zurich, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-06, 2017.
Wieczorek, G. F. and Glade, T.: Climatic factors influencing occurrence of
debris flows, in: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, edited by:
Jakob, M., and Hungr, O., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 325–362,
https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27129-5_14, 2005.
ZAMG: Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Central Institute
for Meteorology and Geodynamics, available at: http://zamg.ac.at, last
access: 6 October 2015.
Zehe, E., Elsenbeer, H., Lindenmaier, F., Schulz, K., and Blöschl, G.:
Patterns of predictability in hydrological threshold systems, Water Resour.
Res., 43, W07434, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005589, 2007.
Zehe, E., Ehret, U., Pfister, L., Blume, T., Schröder, B., Westhoff, M.,
Jackisch, C., Schymanski, S. J., Weiler, M., Schulz, K., Allroggen, N.,
Tronicke, J., van Schaik, L., Dietrich, P., Scherer, U., Eccard, J.,
Wulfmeyer, V., and Kleidon, A.: HESS Opinions: From response units to
functional units: a thermodynamic reinterpretation of the HRU concept to link
spatial organization and functioning of intermediate scale catchments,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014.
Short summary
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to predict. We applied a hydrological model to link not only precipitation, but also snowmelt, antecedent soil moisture, etc. with debris flow initiation in an Alpine watershed in Austria. Our results highlight the value of this more holistic perspective for developing a better understanding of debris flow initiation.
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions and so far remain difficult to...
