Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2018
| 26 Apr 2018
Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model
Ewan Pinnington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Tristan Quaife
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Emily Black
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, Amos Lawless, Karina Williams, Tim Arkebauer, and Dave Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present LAVENDAR, a mathematical method for combining observations with models of the terrestrial environment. Here we use it to improve estimates of crop growth in the UK Met Office land surface model. However, the method is model agnostic, requires no modification to the underlying code and can be applied to any part of the model. In the example application we improve estimates of maize yield by 74 % by assimilating observations of leaf area, crop height and photosynthesis.
Richard Essery, Giulia Mazzotti, Sarah Barr, Tobias Jonas, Tristan Quaife, and Nick Rutter
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3583–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3583-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
How forests influence accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is of long-standing interest, but uncertainty remains in how best to model forest snow processes. We developed the Flexible Snow Model version 2 to quantify these uncertainties. In a first model demonstration, how unloading of intercepted snow from the forest canopy is represented is responsible for the largest uncertainty. Global mapping of forest distribution is also likely to be a large source of uncertainty in existing models.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Samantha Petch, Liang Feng, Paul Palmer, Robert P. King, Tristan Quaife, and Keith Haines
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173343481.12875858/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173343481.12875858/v1, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 varies year to year, mainly due to land ecosystems. Understanding factors controlling the land carbon uptake is crucial. Our study examines the link between terrestrial water storage and the CO2 growth rate from 2002–2023, revealing a strong negative correlation. We highlight the key role of tropical forests, especially in tropical America, and assess how regional contributions shift over time.
Simon Beylat, Nina Raoult, Cédric Bacour, Natalie Douglas, Tristan Quaife, Vladislav Bastrikov, Peter Julien Rayner, and Philippe Peylin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-109, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for understanding and predicting the land components of the carbon cycle. Atmospheric CO2 concentration data is a valuable source of information that can be used to improve the accuracy of these models. In this study, we present a statistical method named 4DEnVar to calibrate parameters of a land surface model using this data. We show that this method is easy to implement and more efficient and accurate than traditional methods.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Bethan L. Harris, Tristan Quaife, Christopher M. Taylor, and Phil P. Harris
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1019–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The response of vegetation productivity to rainfall is a crucial process linking the water and carbon cycles and influencing the evolution of the climate system. However, there are many uncertainties in its representation in Earth system models. We show that the vegetation productivity responses to short-term rainfall events are very different between models due to their differing sensitivities to water availability. We also evaluate the models against a range of observational products.
Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1295–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
Samantha Petch, Bo Dong, Tristan Quaife, Robert P. King, and Keith Haines
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1723–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravitational measurements of water storage from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) can improve understanding of the water budget. We produce flux estimates over large river catchments based on observations that close the monthly water budget and ensure consistency with GRACE on short and long timescales. We use energy data to provide additional constraints and balance the long-term energy budget. These flux estimates are important for evaluating climate models.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, Amos Lawless, Karina Williams, Tim Arkebauer, and Dave Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present LAVENDAR, a mathematical method for combining observations with models of the terrestrial environment. Here we use it to improve estimates of crop growth in the UK Met Office land surface model. However, the method is model agnostic, requires no modification to the underlying code and can be applied to any part of the model. In the example application we improve estimates of maize yield by 74 % by assimilating observations of leaf area, crop height and photosynthesis.
Dagmawi Asfaw, Emily Black, Matthew Brown, Kathryn Jane Nicklin, Frederick Otu-Larbi, Ewan Pinnington, Andrew Challinor, Ross Maidment, and Tristan Quaife
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
TAMSAT-ALERT is a framework for combining observational and forecast information into continually updated assessments of the likelihood of user-defined adverse events like low cumulative rainfall or lower than average crop yield. It is easy to use and flexible to accommodate any impact model that uses meteorological data. The results show that it can be used to monitor the meteorological impact on yield within a growing season and to test the value of routinely issued seasonal forecasts.
Robin J. Hogan, Tristan Quaife, and Renato Braghiere
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a fast new method for calculating how much sunlight is absorbed and reflected by forests and other types of vegetation, rigorously taking account of the complex 3-D structure. Careful evaluation shows it to perform well even in difficult scenes with snow on the ground. The method is suitable for use within the computer models used to make weather and climate forecasts, where it has the potential to improve predictions of near-surface temperature and photosynthesis rates.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
A. Loew, P. M. van Bodegom, J.-L. Widlowski, J. Otto, T. Quaife, B. Pinty, and T. Raddatz
Biogeosciences, 11, 1873–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States
Barriers to urban hydrometeorological simulation: a review
Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Implementation of global soil databases in the Noah-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Saudi Rainfall (SaRa): Hourly 0.1° Gridded Rainfall (1979–Present) for Saudi Arabia via Machine Learning Fusion of Satellite and Model Data
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Informativeness of teleconnections in local and regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Storyline Analytical Framework for Understanding Future Severe Low-Water Episodes and Their Consequences
Assessing multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations on various impact models under climate change
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3435–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3447–3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The review highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate events in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, Yannis Markonis, and Miroslav Trnka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3341–3358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, with clusters of 775 and 630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3073–3100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical or machine learning techniques. Our results show that this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote ungauged areas, suggesting that it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Prabhat Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2551–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global soil information introduces uncertainty into models that simulate soil hydrothermal changes. Using the Noah with Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model with two different global soil datasets, we find under-represented soil properties in wet loam, causing a dry bias in soil moisture. This bias is more pronounced and drought categories are more severe in the SoilGrids dataset. We conclude that models should incorporate detailed, region-specific soil information to minimize model uncertainties.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Xuetong Wang, Raied S. Alharbi, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Amy Green, Matthew F. McCabe, Yoshihide Wada, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Muhammad A. Abid, and Hylke Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper introduces Saudi Rainfall (SaRa), a high-resolution, near real-time rainfall product for the Arabian Peninsula. Using machine learning, SaRa combines multiple satellite and (re)analysis datasets with static predictors, outperforming existing products in the region. With the fast development and continuing growth in water demand over this region, SaRa could help to address water challenges and support resource management.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a new methodology to identify regional structures in the dependence of extreme rainfall on global climate indexes. The study area is north-central Italy, but the methods are highly adaptable to other regions. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index has a strong influence, whose geographical pattern is in line with other studies. We show also that the use of the Index may improve the estimation of the extreme rainfall depth with a given probability.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Kristelle Audet, Laurent Da Silva, Daniel Tarte, Rachel Parent, Élise Comeau, and Dominic Matte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 drought in Quebec showcased the province’s potential vulnerability. This study uses a storyline approach to explore impacts of future extreme droughts under +2 °C and +3 °C warming scenarios. By combining regional climate and hydrological simulations, it highlights the potential for severe water deficits. Collaboration with water management experts helped project the impacts of those future extreme droughts and their consequences for ecosystems and human activities.
Denis Allard, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric variables from climate models often present biases relative to the past. In order to use these models to assess the impact of climate change on processes of interest, it is necessary to correct these biases. We tested several Multivariate Bias Correction Methods (MBCMs) for 5 physical variables that are input variables for 4 process models. We provide recommendations regarding the use of MBCMs when multivariate and time dependent processes are involved.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Cited articles
Albergel, C., Rüdiger, C., Pellarin, T., Calvet, J.-C., Fritz, N., Froissard, F., Suquia, D., Petitpa,
A., Piguet, B., and Martin, E.: From near-surface to root-zone soil moisture using an exponential filter: an assessment of the method
based on in-situ observations and model simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1323–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1323-2008, 2008. a
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Ryu, D., Western, A. W., Crow, W. T., Su, C., and Robertson, D. R.: Dual assimilation of satellite soil
moisture to improve streamflow prediction in data-scarce catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 5357–5375,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018429, 2016. a
Bateni, S. M. and Entekhabi, D.: Relative efficiency of land surface
energy balance components, Water Resour. Res., 48, W04510,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011357, 2012. a
Beljaars, A. C. M., Viterbo, P., Miller, M. J., and
Betts, A. K.: The Anomalous Rainfall over the United States during July 1993: Sensitivity to Land Surface Parameterization and Soil
Moisture Anomalies, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 362–383, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0362:TAROTU>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Best,
M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A.,
Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land
Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011. a
Bolten, J. D., Crow, W. T., Zhan, X.,
Jackson, T. J., and Reynolds, C. A.: Evaluating the utility of remotely sensed soil moisture retrievals for operational agricultural
drought monitoring, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl., 3, 57–66, 2010. a
Braimoh, A. K. and Vlek, P. L. G.: The impact of land-cover change on soil properties
in northern Ghana, Land Degrad. Dev., 15, 65–74, https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.590, 2004. a
Brown, M., Black, E., Asfaw, D., and Otu-Larbi, F.:
Monitoring drought in Ghana using TAMSAT-ALERT: a new decision support system, Weather, 72, 201–205, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3033,
2017. a, b
Cappelaere, B., Descroix, L.,
Lebel, T., Boulain, N., Ramier, D., Laurent, J.-P., Favreau, G., Boubkraoui, S., Boucher, M., Moussa, I. B., Chaffard, V.,
Hiernaux, P., Issoufou, H., Breton, E. L., Mamadou, I., Nazoumou, Y., Oi, M., Ottlé, C., and Quantin, G.: The AMMA-CATCH
experiment in the cultivated Sahelian area of south-west Niger – Investigating water cycle response to a fluctuating climate and
changing environment, J. Hydrol., 375, 34–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.021, 2009. a
Clark, D. B.,
Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O.,
Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon
fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011. a
Cosby, B. J., Hornberger, G. M., Clapp, R. B., and
Ginn, T. R.: A Statistical Exploration of the Relationships of Soil Moisture Characteristics to the Physical Properties of Soils,
Water Resour. Res., 20, 682–690, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i006p00682, 1984. a
Crow, W. T.: Correcting Land Surface Model Predictions for the Impact of Temporally Sparse Rainfall
Rate Measurements Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and Surface Brightness Temperature Observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 960–973,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0960:CLSMPF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
De Lannoy, G. J. M. and Reichle, R. H.: Assimilation of SMOS brightness
temperatures or soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4895–4911,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4895-2016, 2016. a, b
Dorigo, W., Gruber, A., Jeu, R. D., Wagner, W., Stacke, T., Loew, A., Albergel, C., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Parinussa, R., and
Kidd, R.: Evaluation of the ESA CCI soil moisture product using ground-based observations, Remote Sens. Environ., 162, 380–395,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.07.023, 2015. a, b, c
Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D.,
Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, E., Hamer, P. D., Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., de Jeu, R., Kidd, R., Lahoz, W., Liu, Y. Y.,
Miralles, D., Mistelbauer, T., Nicolai-Shaw, N., Parinussa, R., Pratola, C., Reimer, C., van der Schalie, R., Seneviratne, S. I.,
Smolander, T., and Lecomte, P.: ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future
directions, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 185–215,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001, 2017. a
Draper, C. S., Reichle, R. H., De Lannoy, G. J. M., and
Liu, Q.: Assimilation of passive and active microwave soil moisture retrievals, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04401,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050655, 2012. a, b
Ghent, D., Kaduk, J., Remedios, J.,
Ardö, J., and Balzter, H.: Assimilation of land surface temperature into the land surface model JULES with an ensemble Kalman
filter, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D19112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014392, 2010. a
Gottschalck, J., Meng, J., Rodell, M., and
Houser, P.: Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation
System Land Surface States, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 573–598, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM437.1, 2005. a
Greatrex, H., Grimes, D., and Wheeler, T.: Advances in the
Stochastic Modeling of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates Using a Sparse Calibration Dataset, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1810–1831,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0145.1, 2014. a
Guo, Z., Dirmeyer, P. A., Hu, Z.-Z., Gao, X., and Zhao, M.:
Evaluation of the Second Global Soil Wetness Project soil moisture simulations: 2. Sensitivity to external meteorological forcing,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D22S03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007845, 2006. a
Kolassa, J., Reichle, R., and Draper, C.: Merging active and
passive microwave observations in soil moisture data assimilation, Remote Sens. Environ., 191, 117–130, 2017. a
Leenaars, J., van Oostrum, A., and
Ruiperez Gonzalez, M.: Africa Soil Profiles Database, Version 1.2. A compilation of georeferenced and standardised legacy soil
profile data for Sub-Saharan Africa (with dataset). Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS) project., Tech. rep., ISRIC-World Soil
Information, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 2014. a, b, c, d
Liu, C., Xiao, Q., and Wang, B.: An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional
Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part I: Technical Formulation and Preliminary Test, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3363–3373,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2312.1, 2008. a
Liu, C., Xiao, Q., and Wang, B.: An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional
Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part II: Observing System Simulation Experiments with Advanced Research WRF (ARW), Mon. Weather
Rev., 137, 1687–1704, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2699.1, 2009. a
Liu, Q., Reichle, R. H.,
Bindlish, R., Cosh, M. H., Crow, W. T., de Jeu, R., De Lannoy, G. J. M., Huffman, G. J., and Jackson, T. J.: The Contributions of
Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System,
J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 750–765, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05000.1, 2011. a, b, c
Maidment, R. I., Grimes, D. I. F.,
Allan, R. P., Greatrex, H., Rojas, O., and Leo, O.: Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for
Uganda, Meteorol. Appl., 20, 308–317, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1283, 2013. a
Maidment, R. I., Grimes, D., Allan, R. P., Tarnavsky, E., Stringer, M., Hewison, T., Roebeling, R., and Black, E.: The 30 year TAMSAT
African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT) data set, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 10619–10644,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021927, 2014. a
Maidment, R. I., Grimes, D., Black, E., Tarnavsky, E., Young, M., Greatrex, H., Allan, R. P.,
Stein, T., Nkonde, E., Senkunda, S., and Alcántara, E. M. U.: A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for
operational monitoring in Africa, Sci. Data, 4, 170063,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.63;, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
Martey, E., Wiredu, A.,
Etwire, P., Fosu, M., Buah, S. S., Bidzakin, J., Ahiabor, B., and Kusi, F.: Fertilizer Adoption and Use Intensity Among Smallholder
Farmers in Northern Ghana: A Case Study of the AGRA Soil Health Project, Sustainable Agriculture Research, 3, p. 24, https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v3n1p24, 2013. a
Massari, C., Brocca, L., Tarpanelli, A., and
Moramarco, T.: Data Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture into Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: A Complex Recipe?, Remote Sensing, 7,
11403–11433, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70911403, 2015. a
McDowell, N. G.: Mechanisms Linking Drought, Hydraulics, Carbon Metabolism, and Vegetation
Mortality, Plant Physiol., 155, 1051–1059, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.110.170704, 2011. a
Montzka, C.,
Moradkhani, H., Weihermüller, L., Franssen, H.-J. H., Canty, M., and Vereecken, H.: Hydraulic parameter estimation by
remotely-sensed top soil moisture observations with the particle filter, J. Hydrol., 399, 410–421,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.020, 2011. a, b, c
Moradkhani, H., Sorooshian, S.,
Gupta, H. V., and Houser, P. R.: Dual state–parameter estimation of hydrological models using ensemble Kalman filter, Adv. Water
Resour., 28, 135–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.09.002, 2005. a, b, c
Nachtergaele, F., van Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L., Batjes, N., Dijkshoorn,
K., van Engelen, V., Fischer, G., Jones, A., Montanarella, L., Petri, M., and
Prieler, S.: Harmonized world
soil database (version 1.0), Tech. rep., Food and Agric Organization of the UN (FAO); International Inst. for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA); ISRIC-World Soil Information; Institute of Soil Sciences – Chinese Acadamy of Sciences (ISS-CAS); EC-Joint
Research Centre (JRC), 2008. a
Navon, I.: Practical and theoretical aspects of adjoint parameter estimation and identifiability in
meteorology and oceanography, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 27, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0265(97)00032-8, 1998. a
Nelder, J. A. and Mead, R.: A Simplex Method for Function Minimization,
Comput. J., 7, 308–313, https://doi.org/10.1093/comjnl/7.4.308, 1965. a
Patil, N. G. P. and Singh, S. K.: Pedotransfer Functions for Estimating Soil Hydraulic
Properties: A Review, Pedosphere, 26, 417–430, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1002-0160(15)60054-6, 2016. a
Pitman, A. J., Henderson-Sellers, A., Desborough, C. E., Yang, Z.-L., Abramopoulos, F., Boone, A.,
Dickinson, R. E., Gedney, N., Koster, R., Kowalczyk, E., Lettenmaier, D., Liang, X., Mahfouf, J.-F., Noilhan, J., Polcher, J.,
Qu, W., Robock, A., Rosenzweig, C., Schlosser, C. A., Shmakin, A. B., Smith, J., Suarez, M., Verseghy, D., Wetzel, P., Wood, E., and
Xue, Y.: Key results and implications from phase 1(c) of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes,
Clim. Dynam., 15, 673–684, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050309, 1999. a
Qin, J., Liang, S., Yang, K., Kaihotsu, I., Liu, R.,
and Koike, T.: Simultaneous estimation of both soil moisture and model parameters using particle filtering method through the
assimilation of microwave signal, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D15103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011358, 2009. a, b, c
Raoult, N. M., Jupp, T. E., Cox, P. M., and Luke, C. M.:
Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2833–2852,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, 2016. a, b
Rodell, M., Houser, P. R., Jambor, U., Gottschalck, J., Mitchell, K., Meng, C.-J.,
Arsenault, K., Cosgrove, B., Radakovich, J., Bosilovich, M., Entin, J. K., Walker, J. P., Lohmann, D., and Toll, D.: The Global Land
Data Assimilation System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 381–394, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-381, 2004. a
Sawada, Y. and Koike, T.: Simultaneous estimation of both hydrological and ecological
parameters in an ecohydrological model by assimilating microwave signal, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 8839–8857,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021536, 2014. a, b, c
Sellers, P.,
Randall, D., Collatz, G., Berry, J., Field, C., Dazlich, D., Zhang, C., Collelo, G., and Bounoua, L.: A Revised Land Surface
Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCM S. Part I: Model Formulation, J. Climate, 9, 676–705,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0676:ARLSPF>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating
soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010. a
Tarnavsky, E., Grimes, D., Maidment, R., Black, E., Allan, R. P., Stringer, M., Chadwick, R., and Kayitakire, F.: Extension of the
TAMSAT Satellite-Based Rainfall Monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to Present, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53, 2805–2822,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0016.1, 2014. a
Walters, D. N., Williams, K. D., Boutle, I. A., Bushell, A. C., Edwards, J. M., Field, P. R., Lock, A. P.,
Morcrette, C. J., Stratton, R. A., Wilkinson, J. M., Willett, M. R., Bellouin, N., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Brooks, M. E., Copsey, D.,
Earnshaw, P. D., Hardiman, S. C., Harris, C. M., Levine, R. C., MacLachlan, C., Manners, J. C., Martin, G. M., Milton, S. F., Palmer,
M. D., Roberts, M. J., Rodríguez, J. M., Tennant, W. J., and Vidale, P. L.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 4.0
and JULES Global Land 4.0 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014.
a
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G.,
Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology
applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014. a, b
Yang, K., Zhu, L., Chen, Y., Zhao, L.,
Qin, J., Lu, H., Tang, W., Han, M., Ding, B., and Fang, N.: Land surface model calibration through microwave data assimilation for
improving soil moisture simulations, J. Hydrol., 533, 266–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.018, 2016. a, b, c, d
Short summary
This paper combines satellite observations of precipitation and soil moisture to understand what key information they offer to improve land surface model estimates of soil moisture over Ghana. When both observations are combined with the chosen land surface model we reduce the unbiased root-mean-squared error in a 5-year model hindcast by 27 %; this bodes well for the production of improved soil moisture estimates over sub-Saharan Africa where subsistence farming remains prevalent.
This paper combines satellite observations of precipitation and soil moisture to understand what...
