Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Research article 14 Aug 2015
Research article | 14 Aug 2015
Measurement and interpolation uncertainties in rainfall maps from cellular communication networks
M. F. Rios Gaona et al.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Aart Overeem, Timothy H. Raupach, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4465–4476,Short summary
Rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The results show the potential of such networks as complementary rainfall measurements for more robust networks (e.g. radars, gauges, satellites).
Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, Klaas-Jan van Heeringen, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, Albrecht Weerts, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4061–4080,Short summary
Significant biases in real-time radar rainfall products limit the use for hydrometeorological forecasting. We introduce CARROTS (Climatology-based Adjustments for Radar Rainfall in an OperaTional Setting), a set of fixed bias reduction factors to correct radar rainfall products and to benchmark other correction algorithms. When tested for 12 Dutch basins, estimated rainfall and simulated discharges with CARROTS generally outperform those using the operational mean field bias adjustments.
Simone Gelsinari, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Edoardo Daly, Jos van Dam, Remko Uijlenhoet, Nicholas Fewster-Young, and Rebecca Doble
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2261–2277,Short summary
Estimates of recharge to groundwater are often driven by biophysical processes occurring in the soil column and, particularly in remote areas, are also always affected by uncertainty. Using data assimilation techniques to merge remotely sensed observations with outputs of numerical models is one way to reduce this uncertainty. Here, we show the benefits of using such a technique with satellite evapotranspiration rates and coupled hydrogeological models applied to a semi-arid site in Australia.
Wagner Wolff, Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for AMTShort summary
The existing infrastructure for cellular communication is promising for ground-based rainfall remote sensing. The rain-induced signal attenuation is used in dedicated algorithms for retrieving rainfall depth along commercial microwave links (CMLs) between cellphone towers. This processing is source of many uncertainties about input data, algorithm structures, parameters, CML network, and local climate. Application of a stochastic optimization method leads to improved CML rainfall estimates.
Jolijn van Engelenburg, Erik van Slobbe, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Petra Hellegers
Drink. Water Eng. Sci., 14, 1–43,Short summary
This study analysed the impact of extreme weather events, water quality deterioration, and a growing drinking water demand on the sustainability of drinking water supply in the Netherlands. The results of the case studies were compared to sustainability issues for drinking water supply that are experienced worldwide. This resulted in a set of sustainability characteristics describing drinking water supply on a local scale in terms of hydrological, technical, and socio-economic characteristics.
Thomas C. van Leth, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1797–1815,Short summary
We present a method of using collocated microwave link instruments to estimate the average size distribution of raindrops along a path of several kilometers. Our method is validated using simulated fields as well as five laser disdrometers installed along a path. We also present preliminary results from an experimental setup measuring at 26 and 38 GHz along a 2.2 km path. We show that a retrieval on the basis of microwave links can be highly accurate, provided the base power level is stable.
Adrien Guyot, Jayaram Pudashine, Alain Protat, Remko Uijlenhoet, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Alan Seed, and Jeffrey P. Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4737–4761,Short summary
We characterised for the first time the rainfall microphysics for Southern Hemisphere temperate latitudes. Co-located instruments were deployed to provide information on the sampling effect and spatio-temporal variabilities at micro scales. Substantial differences were found across the instruments, increasing with increasing values of the rain rate. Specific relations for reflectivity–rainfall are presented together with related uncertainties for drizzle and stratiform and convective rainfall.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1609,Short summary
This study describes how the spatial resolution of hydrological models affects the model results. The high-resolution model allowed for more spatial variability than the low-resolution model. As a result, the low-resolution model failed to capture most variability that was simulated with the high-resolution model. This has implications for the interpretation of results carried out at coarse resolutions, as they may fail to represent the local small-scale variability.
Bart van Osnabrugge, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Albrecht Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1467,Short summary
A correct estimate of the amount of future precipitation is the most important factor in making a good streamflow forecast, but evaporation is also an important component that determines the discharge of a river. However, in this study for the Rhine River we found that evaporation forecasts only give an almost negligible improvement compared to methods that use statistical information on climatology for a 10-day streamflow forecast. This is important to guide research on low flow forecasts.
Tjitske J. Geertsema, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5599–5613,Short summary
This study investigate the processes and effects of simultaneous flood peaks at a lowland confluence. The flood peaks are analyzed with the relatively new dynamic time warping method, which offers a robust means of tracing flood waves in discharge time series at confluences. The time lag between discharge peaks in the main river and its lowland tributaries is small compared to the wave duration; therefore the exact timing of discharge peaks may be little relevant to flood risk.
Thomas C. van Leth, Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4645–4669,Short summary
We present a campaign to address several error sources associated with rainfall estimates from microwave links in cellular communication networks. The set-up consists of three co-located links, complemented with reference instruments. We investigate events covering different attenuating phenomena: Rainfall, solid precipitation, temperature, fog, antenna wetting due to rain or dew, and clutter.
Manuel F. Rios Gaona, Aart Overeem, Timothy H. Raupach, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4465–4476,Short summary
Rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The results show the potential of such networks as complementary rainfall measurements for more robust networks (e.g. radars, gauges, satellites).
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791,Short summary
Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Joost Buitink, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
We compared the hydrological response simulated at two different spatial resolutions. The low resolution model was not able to simulate the complex response as was simulated with the high resolution model. The low resolution model underestimated the anomalies when compared with the high resolution model. This has implications on the interpretation of global scale impact studies (low resolution) on local or regional scales (high resolution).
Matthew F. McCabe, Matthew Rodell, Douglas E. Alsdorf, Diego G. Miralles, Remko Uijlenhoet, Wolfgang Wagner, Arko Lucieer, Rasmus Houborg, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Trenton E. Franz, Jiancheng Shi, Huilin Gao, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3914,Short summary
We examine the opportunities and challenges that technological advances in Earth observation will present to the hydrological community. From advanced space-based sensors to unmanned aerial vehicles and ground-based distributed networks, these emergent systems are set to revolutionize our understanding and interpretation of hydrological and related processes.
Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Martyn Clark, Luis Samaniego, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Tim van Emmerik, Remko Uijlenhoet, Kevin Achieng, Trenton E. Franz, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3701–3713,Short summary
In this synthesis of hydrologic scaling and similarity, we assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modeling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological hypotheses. We call upon the community to develop a focused effort towards a fourth paradigm for hydrology.
Martyn P. Clark, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Luis Samaniego, Ross A. Woods, Remko Uijlenhoet, Katrina E. Bennett, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Xitian Cai, Andrew W. Wood, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3427–3440,Short summary
The diversity in hydrologic models has led to controversy surrounding the “correct” approach to hydrologic modeling. In this paper we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, summarize modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs.
Hidayat Hidayat, Adriaan J. Teuling, Bart Vermeulen, Muh Taufik, Karl Kastner, Tjitske J. Geertsema, Dinja C. C. Bol, Dirk H. Hoekman, Gadis Sri Haryani, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Robert M. Delinom, Roel Dijksma, Gusti Z. Anshari, Nining S. Ningsih, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2579–2594,Short summary
Hydrological prediction is crucial but in tropical lowland it is difficult, considering data scarcity and river system complexity. This study offers a view of the hydrology of two tropical lowlands in Indonesia. Both lowlands exhibit the important role of upstream wetlands in regulating the flow downstream. We expect that this work facilitates a better prediction of fire-prone conditions in these regions.
Lotte de Vos, Hidde Leijnse, Aart Overeem, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 765–777,Short summary
Recent developments have made it possible to easily crowdsource meteorological measurements from automatic personal weather stations worldwide. This has offered free access to rainfall ground measurements at spatial and temporal resolutions far exceeding those of national operational sensor networks, especially in cities. This paper is the first step to make optimal use of this promising source of rainfall measurements and identify challenges for future implementation for urban applications.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650,Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
C. Z. van de Beek, H. Leijnse, P. Hazenberg, and R. Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3837–3850,Short summary
Quantitative precipitation estimation using weather radar is affected by many sources of error. This study is an attempt to separate and quantify sources of error very close to the radar. A 3-day event is analyzed using radar, rain gauge and disdrometer data. Without correction, the radar severely underestimates the total rain amount by more than 50 %. After correction for the errors, a good match with rain gauge measurements is found, with 5 to 8 % difference.
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226,Short summary
In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2425–2444,Short summary
Microwave links in commercial cellular communication networks hold a promise for areal rainfall monitoring and could complement rainfall estimates from ground-based weather radars, rain gauges, and satellites. It has been shown that country-wide rainfall maps can be derived from the signal attenuations of microwave links in such a network. Here we give a detailed description of the employed rainfall retrieval algorithm and the corresponding code, which is freely provided at GitHub.
Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Naoki Mizukami, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1079,Short summary
A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of a land surface model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution.
O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, J. Sumihar, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2911–2924,Short summary
This is the first analysis of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter in hydrological forecasting. The results of discharge assimilation into a hydrological model for the catchment show that including past predictions and observations in the filter improves model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between soil moisture and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting.
C. C. Brauer, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. J. Teuling, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4007–4028,
C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and R. Uijlenhoet
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2313–2332,
A. I. Gevaert, A. J. Teuling, R. Uijlenhoet, S. B. DeLong, T. E. Huxman, L. A. Pangle, D. D. Breshears, J. Chorover, J. D. Pelletier, S. R. Saleska, X. Zeng, and P. A. Troch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3681–3692,
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysisUncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate changeBias-correcting input variables enhances forecasting of reference crop evapotranspirationChoosing between post-processing precipitation forecasts or chaining several uncertainty quantification tools in hydrological forecasting systemsUncertainty of gridded precipitation and temperature reference datasets in climate change impact studiesAt which timescale does the complementary principle perform best in evaporation estimation?Uncertainty in nonstationary frequency analysis of South Korea's daily rainfall peak over threshold excesses associated with covariatesAssessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variabilityThe accuracy of weather radar in heavy rain: a comparative study for Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and SwedenA new uncertainty estimation approach with multiple datasets and implementation for various precipitation productsA crash-testing framework for predictive uncertainty assessment when forecasting high flows in an extrapolation contextRequired sampling density of ground-based soil moisture and brightness temperature observations for calibration and validation of L-band satellite observations based on a virtual realityResponse of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulationsCross-validating precipitation datasets in the Indus River basinSelection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metricsAssessment of spatial uncertainty of heavy rainfall at catchment scale using a dense gauge networkInfluence of three phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on daily 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quantitative sensitivity analysisDo probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge networkErrors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correctionElusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projectionsQuantifying the uncertainty in estimates of surface–atmosphere fluxes through joint evaluation of the SEBS and SCOPE modelsBenefits from using combined dynamical-statistical downscaling approaches – lessons from a case study in the Mediterranean region
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257,Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Kirsti Hakala, and Yating Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4773–4788,Short summary
Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
Emixi Sthefany Valdez, François Anctil, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
We investigated how a precipitation post-processor interacts with other tools for uncertainty quantification in a hydrometeorological forecasting chain. Four systems were implemented to generate 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts, which vary from partial to total uncertainties estimation. Overall analysis showed that post-processing and initial condition estimation ensure the most skill improvements, in some cases, even better than a system that considers all sources of uncertainty.
Mostafa Tarek, François Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3331–3350,Short summary
It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
Liming Wang, Songjun Han, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 375–386,Short summary
It remains unclear at which timescale the complementary principle performs best in estimating evaporation. In this study, evaporation estimation was assessed over 88 eddy covariance monitoring sites at multiple timescales. The results indicate that the generalized complementary functions perform best in estimating evaporation at the monthly scale. This study provides a reference for choosing a suitable time step for evaporation estimations in relevant studies.
Okjeong Lee, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jeongeun Won, and Sangdan Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5077–5093,Short summary
The uncertainty of the model interpreting rainfall extremes with temperature is analyzed. The performance of the model focuses on the reliability of the output. It has been found that the selection of temperatures suitable for extreme levels plays an important role in improving model reliability. Based on this, a methodology is proposed to quantify the degree of uncertainty inherent in the change in rainfall extremes due to global warming.
Chao Gao, Martijn J. Booij, and Yue-Ping Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269,Short summary
This paper studies the impact of climate change on high and low flows and quantifies the contribution of uncertainty sources from representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs) and internal climate variability in extreme flows. Internal climate variability was reflected in a stochastic rainfall model. The results show the importance of internal climate variability and GCM uncertainty in high flows and GCM and RCP uncertainty in low flows especially for the far future.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188,Short summary
A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, and Ching-Sheng Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2061–2081,Short summary
This article proposes a new estimation approach for assessing the uncertainty with multiple datasets by fully considering all variations in temporal and spatial dimensions. Comparisons demonstrate that classical metrics may underestimate the uncertainties among datasets due to an averaging process in their algorithms. This new approach is particularly suitable for overall assessment of multiple climatic products, but can be easily applied to other spatiotemporal products in related fields.
Lionel Berthet, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Julie Viatgé, Renaud Marty, and Olivier Piotte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2017–2041,Short summary
An increasing number of flood forecasting services assess and communicate the uncertainty associated with their forecasts. We present a crash-testing framework that evaluates the quality of hydrological forecasts in an extrapolation context. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of uncertainty quantification when forecasting high flows. They show a significant drop in reliability when forecasting high flows and considerable variability among catchments and across lead times.
Shaoning Lv, Bernd Schalge, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1957–1973,Short summary
Passive remote sensing of soil moisture has good potential to improve weather forecasting via data assimilation in theory. We use the virtual reality data set (VR01) to infer the impact of sampling density on soil moisture ground cal/val activity. It shows how the sampling error is growing with an increasing sampling distance for a SMOS–SMAP scale footprint in about 40 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The conclusion will help in understanding the passive remote sensing soil moisture products.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1131–1143,Short summary
Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main climate modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, while the impacts of NAO and IOD are substantial. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and, hence, may help to improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 427–450,Short summary
The amount of precipitation falling in the Indus River basin remains uncertain while its variability impacts 100 million inhabitants. A comparison of datasets from diverse sources (ground remote observations, model outputs) reduces this uncertainty significantly. Grounded observations offer the most reliable long-term variability but with important underestimation in winter over the mountains. By contrast, recent model outputs offer better estimations of total amount and short-term variability.
Kamal Ahmed, Dhanapala A. Sachindra, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mehmet C. Demirel, and Eun-Sung Chung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4803–4824,Short summary
This study evaluated the performance of 36 CMIP5 GCMs in simulating seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using spatial metrics (SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman–Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling–Gupta efficiency) for the period 1961–2005. NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 were identified as the most suitable GCMs for simulating all three climate variables over Pakistan.
Sungmin O and Ulrich Foelsche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2863–2875,Short summary
We analyze heavy local rainfall to address questions regarding the spatial uncertainty due to the approximation of areal rainfall using point measurements. Ten years of rainfall data from a dense network of 150 rain gauges in southeastern Austria are employed, which permits robust examination of small-scale rainfall at various horizontal resolutions. Quantitative uncertainty information from the study can guide both data users and producers to estimate uncertainty in their own rainfall dataset.
Aifeng Lv, Bo Qu, Shaofeng Jia, and Wenbin Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 883–896,Short summary
ENSO-related changes in daily precipitation regimes are currently ignored by the scientific community. We analyzed the anomalies of daily precipitation and hydrological extremes caused by different phases of ENSO events, as well as the possible driving mechanisms, to reveal the influence of ENSO on China's daily precipitation regimes. Our results provide a valuable tool for daily precipitation prediction and enable the prioritization of adaptation efforts ahead of extreme events in China.
Micheal J. Simpson and Neil I. Fox
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3375–3389,Short summary
Many researchers have expressed that one of the main difficulties in modeling watershed hydrology is that of obtaining continuous, widespread weather input data, especially precipitation. The overarching objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive study of three weather radars as a function of range. We found that radar-estimated precipitation was best at ranges between 100 and 150 km from the radar, with different radar parameters being superior at varying distances from the radar.
Vimal Mishra, Reepal Shah, Syed Azhar, Harsh Shah, Parth Modi, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2269–2284,
Sanjib Sharma, Ridwan Siddique, Seann Reed, Peter Ahnert, Pablo Mendoza, and Alfonso Mejia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1831–1849,Short summary
We investigate the relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1–7). For this purpose, we develop and implement a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS). Overall analysis shows that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a competitive alternative.
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 127–141,Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
Fan Yang, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Jie He, Wei Wang, Jonathon S. Wright, Chengwei Li, Menglei Han, and Yishan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5805–5821,Short summary
In this paper, we show that CLDAS has the highest spatial and temporal resolution, and it performs best in terms of precipitation, while it overestimates the shortwave radiation. CMFD also has high resolution and its shortwave radiation data match well with the station data; its annual-mean precipitation is reliable but its monthly precipitation needs improvements. Both GLDAS and CN05.1 over mainland China need to be improved. The results can benefit researchers for forcing data selection.
Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762,Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Judith Eeckman, Pierre Chevallier, Aaron Boone, Luc Neppel, Anneke De Rouw, Francois Delclaux, and Devesh Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4879–4893,Short summary
The central part of the Himalayan Range presents tremendous heterogeneity in terms of topography and climatology, but the representation of hydro-climatic processes for Himalayan catchments is limited due to a lack of knowledge in such poorly instrumented environments. The proposed approach is to characterize the effect of altitude on precipitation by considering ensembles of acceptable altitudinal factors. Ensembles of acceptable values for the components of the water cycle are then provided.
Jefferson S. Wong, Saman Razavi, Barrie R. Bonsal, Howard S. Wheater, and Zilefac E. Asong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2185,Short summary
This study was conducted to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of the errors associated with various gridded precipitation products in Canada. Overall, WFDEI [GPCC] and CaPA performed best with respect to different performance measures, followed by ANUSPLIN and WEDEI [CRU]. Princeton and NARR demonstrated the lowest quality. Comparing the climate model-simulated products, PCIC ensembles generally performed better than NA-CORDEX ensembles in terms of reliability in four seasons.
Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, and Holger R. Maier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126,Short summary
This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
Vojtěch Svoboda, Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, and Jan Kyselý
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 963–980,Short summary
The study presents validation of precipitation events as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models for the Czech Republic. While the number of events per season, seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events and the distribution of rainfall depths are simulated relatively well, event maximum precipitation and event intensity are strongly underestimated. This underestimation cannot be explained by scale mismatch between point observations and area average (climate model simulations).
Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, Petr Bašta, Radek Vlnas, and Pavel Pech
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4307–4322,Short summary
The paper is focused on assessment of the contribution of various sources of uncertainty to the estimated rainfall erosivity factor. It is shown that the rainfall erosivity factor can be estimated with reasonable precision even from records shorter than recommended, provided good spatial coverage and reasonable explanatory variables are available. The research was done as an update of the R factor estimates for the Czech Republic, which were later used for climate change assessment.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672,Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128,Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
K. Sunilkumar, T. Narayana Rao, and S. Satheeshkumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1735,
Vincent Roth and Tatenda Lemann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–934,Short summary
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) suggests using the CFSR global rainfall data for modelling discharge and soil erosion in data-scarce parts of the world. These data are freely available and ready to use for SWAT modelling. However, simulations with the CFSR data in the Ethiopian Highlands were unable to represent the specific regional climates and showed high discrepancies. This article compares SWAT simulations with conventional rainfall data and with CFSR rainfall data.
J. Kim and S. K. Park
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 651–658,Short summary
This study examined the uncertainty in climatological precipitation in East Asia, calculated from five gridded analysis data sets based on in situ rain gauge observations from 1980 to 2007. It is found that the regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or very high elevations. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over such regions in East Asia.
S. H. Alemohammad, K. A. McColl, A. G. Konings, D. Entekhabi, and A. Stoffelen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3489–3503,Short summary
This paper introduces a new variant of the triple collocation technique with multiplicative error model. The method is applied, for the first time, to precipitation products across the central part of continental USA. Results show distinctive patterns of error variance in each product that are estimated without a priori assumption of any of the error distributions. The correlation coefficients between each product and the truth are also estimated, which provides another performance perspective.
M. S. Raleigh, J. D. Lundquist, and M. P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3153–3179,Short summary
A sensitivity analysis is used to examine how error characteristics (type, distributions, and magnitudes) in meteorological forcing data impact outputs from a physics-based snow model in four climates. Bias and error magnitudes were key factors in model sensitivity and precipitation bias often dominated. However, the relative importance of forcings depended somewhat on the selected model output. Forcing uncertainty was comparable to model structural uncertainty as found in other studies.
S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, J. C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Lafont, S. Moulin, A. Chanzy, O. Marloie, S. Buis, V. Desfonds, N. Bertrand, and D. Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3109–3131,Short summary
Land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. Evapotranspiration mainly results from soil evaporation when it is simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This leads to a high sensitivity to the soil parameters. Errors on soil hydraulic properties can lead to a large bias in cumulative evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Accounting for uncertainties in soil properties is essential for land surface modelling.
W. Gong, Q. Duan, J. Li, C. Wang, Z. Di, Y. Dai, A. Ye, and C. Miao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2409–2425,
S. O. Los
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1713–1725,Short summary
The study evaluates annual precipitation (largely rainfall) amounts for the tropics and subtropics; precipitation was obtained from ground observations, satellite observations and numerical weather forecasting models. - Annual precipitation amounts from ground and satellite observations were the most realistic. - Newer weather forecasting models better predicted annual precipitation than older models. - Weather forecasting models predicted inaccurate precipitation amounts for Africa.
A. Kann, I. Meirold-Mautner, F. Schmid, G. Kirchengast, J. Fuchsberger, V. Meyer, L. Tüchler, and B. Bica
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1547–1559,Short summary
The paper introduces a high resolution precipitation analysis system which operates on 1 km x 1 km resolution with high frequency updates of 5 minutes. The ability of such a system to adequately assess the convective precipitation distribution is evaluated by means of an independant, high resolution station network. This dense station network allows for a thorough evaluation of the analyses under different convective situations and of the representativeness error of raingaue measurements.
C. H. Wu, G. R. Huang, and H. J. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1385–1399,
T. Antofie, G. Naumann, J. Spinoni, and J. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 177–193,
P. López López, J. S. Verkade, A. H. Weerts, and D. P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428,
G. Naumann, E. Dutra, P. Barbosa, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, and J. V. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625–1640,
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869,
J. Li, Q. Y. Duan, W. Gong, A. Ye, Y. Dai, C. Miao, Z. Di, C. Tong, and Y. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3279–3293,
M. H. Ramos, S. J. van Andel, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219–2232,
N. Peleg, M. Ben-Asher, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2195–2208,
E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2147–2159,
B. Orlowsky and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765–1781,
J. Timmermans, Z. Su, C. van der Tol, A. Verhoef, and W. Verhoef
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1561–1573,
N. Guyennon, E. Romano, I. Portoghese, F. Salerno, S. Calmanti, A. B. Petrangeli, G. Tartari, and D. Copetti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 705–720,
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Commercial cellular networks are built for telecommunication purposes. These kinds of networks have lately been used to obtain rainfall maps at country-wide scales. From previous studies, we now quantify the uncertainties associated with such maps. To do so, we divided the sources or error into two categories: from microwave link measurements and from mapping. It was found that the former is the source that contributes the most to the overall error in rainfall maps from microwave link network.
Commercial cellular networks are built for telecommunication purposes. These kinds of networks...