Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
Research article
 | 
08 Apr 2015
Research article |  | 08 Apr 2015

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly

Related authors

Explaining changes in rainfall–runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) v2.1: an object-oriented implementation of 47 established hydrological models for improved speed and readability
Luca Trotter, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Margarita Saft, and Murray C. Peel
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6359–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022, 2022
Short summary
CAMELS-AUS: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 222 catchments in Australia
Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Suwash Chandra Acharya, Nans Addor, Chihchung Chou, and Murray C. Peel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3847–3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3847-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3847-2021, 2021
Short summary
Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) v1.2: an open-source, extendable framework providing implementations of 46 conceptual hydrologic models as continuous state-space formulations
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jim E. Freer, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Murray C. Peel, and Ross A. Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2463–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate
Z. K. Tesemma, Y. Wei, M. C. Peel, and A. W. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2821–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2821-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2821-2015, 2015

Related subject area

Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Actionable human–water system modelling under uncertainty
Laura Gil-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín, Ángel Sánchez-Daniel, Pablo Saiz-Santiago, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Julio Pindado, and Carlos Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4501–4520, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Robust multi-objective optimization under multiple uncertainties using the CM-ROPAR approach: case study of water resources allocation in the Huaihe River basin
Jitao Zhang, Dimitri Solomatine, and Zengchuan Dong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3739–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System
Gwyneth Matthews, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, Toni Jurlina, Cinzia Mazzetti, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Coupled effects of observation and parameter uncertainty on urban groundwater infrastructure decisions
Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1319–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A.: A test of goodness of fit, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 49, 765–769, 1954.
Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., and Michel, C.: Impact of imperfect potential evapotranspiration knowledge on the efficiency and parameters of watershed models, J. Hydrol., 286, 19–35, 2004.
Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Berthet, L., Le Moine, N., Lerat, J., Loumagne, C., Oudin, L., Mathevet, T., Ramos, M.-H., and Valéry, A.: HESS Opinions "Crash tests for a standardized evaluation of hydrological models", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1757–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1757-2009, 2009.
Arora, V.: Streamflow simulations for continental-scale river basins in a global atmospheric general circulation model, Adv. Water Resour., 24, 775–791, 2001.
Bárdossy, A. and Pegram, G.: Downscaling precipitation using regional climate models and circulation patterns toward hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 47, W04505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009689, 2011.
Download
Short summary
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty