Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North
Jessica E. Cherry1,Corrie Knapp2,Sarah Trainor3,Andrea J. Ray4,Molly Tedesche5,and Susan Walker6Jessica E. Cherry et al.Jessica E. Cherry1,Corrie Knapp2,Sarah Trainor3,Andrea J. Ray4,Molly Tedesche5,and Susan Walker6
Received: 11 Apr 2016 – Discussion started: 24 May 2016 – Revised: 04 Nov 2016 – Accepted: 27 Nov 2016 – Published: 09 Jan 2017
Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of studies on hydrologic impacts suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.
We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic). Hydropower continues to grow in this region because water resources are perceived to be plentiful. However, with changes in glacier extent and permafrost, and more extreme events, will those resources prove reliable into the future? This study amasses the evidence that quantitative hydrology modeling and uncertainty assessment have matured to the point where they should be used in water resource planning.
We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic)....