Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Apr 2015
Research article |
| 08 Apr 2015
Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
R. Srikanthan
Environment and Research Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia
T. A. McMahon
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
D. J. Karoly
School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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- Uncertainties in runoff projections in southwestern Australian catchments using a global climate model with perturbed physics P. Barria et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.040
- Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia B. Henley et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
- A modified Gould-Dincer method to assess yield of carry-over reservoirs with environmental water requirements P. Ren et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129065
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- Disaggregated monthly hydrological models can outperform daily models in providing daily flow statistics and extrapolate well to a drying climate A. John et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126471
- Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America J. Tamayo et al. 10.5194/asr-19-105-2022
- Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation T. McMahon et al. 10.5194/hess-19-361-2015
- Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia N. Lockart et al. 10.3354/cr01596
- Generation of multi-site stochastic daily rainfall with four weather generators: a case study of Gloucester catchment in Australia G. Fu et al. 10.1007/s00704-017-2306-3
- Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management A. Horne et al. 10.1093/biosci/biz087
- Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk A. John et al. 10.1002/wcc.692
- Nonstationary Runoff Responses Can Interact With Climate Change to Increase Severe Outcomes for Freshwater Ecology A. John et al. 10.1029/2021WR030192
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al. 10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016
- Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature Variations over the Canadian Prairie Provinces under Climate Change X. Zhou et al. 10.3390/rs13214350
- Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? C. Chadwick et al. 10.3390/w13010064
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing Long-Term Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Using an Ensemble Approach and Comparison with Global Gridded Model-A Case Study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed S. Gautam et al. 10.3390/w10050564
- Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment B. Soundharajan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.051
- Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India B. Soundharajan et al. 10.5194/piahs-371-49-2015
- Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia M. Haque et al. 10.1002/hyp.10492
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Short summary
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary...
