Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
R. Srikanthan
Environment and Research Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia
T. A. McMahon
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
D. J. Karoly
School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Viewed
Total article views: 3,947 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 05 May 2014)
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2,049 | 1,764 | 134 | 3,947 | 326 | 135 | 141 |
- HTML: 2,049
- PDF: 1,764
- XML: 134
- Total: 3,947
- Supplement: 326
- BibTeX: 135
- EndNote: 141
Total article views: 2,780 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 08 Apr 2015)
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1,498 | 1,177 | 105 | 2,780 | 200 | 116 | 122 |
- HTML: 1,498
- PDF: 1,177
- XML: 105
- Total: 2,780
- Supplement: 200
- BibTeX: 116
- EndNote: 122
Total article views: 1,167 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 05 May 2014)
HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
551 | 587 | 29 | 1,167 | 19 | 19 |
- HTML: 551
- PDF: 587
- XML: 29
- Total: 1,167
- BibTeX: 19
- EndNote: 19
Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Correcting streamflow bias considering its spatial structure for impact assessment of climate change on floods using d4PDF in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand A. Budhathoki et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101150
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- The time of emergence of climate-induced hydrologic change in Australian rivers A. John et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129371
- Projecting climate change impacts on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau with model calibration against the glacier inventory data and observed streamflow Q. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.043
- Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability A. Gelfan et al. 10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
- Can annual streamflow volumes be characterised by flood events alone? C. Dykman et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128884
- Uncertainties in runoff projections in southwestern Australian catchments using a global climate model with perturbed physics P. Barria et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.040
- Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia B. Henley et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
- A modified Gould-Dincer method to assess yield of carry-over reservoirs with environmental water requirements P. Ren et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129065
- Modeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change A. Leroux et al. 10.3982/QE1597
- Evaluation of statistical downscaling methods for climate change projections over Spain: Present conditions with perfect predictors A. Hernanz et al. 10.1002/joc.7271
- Water supply sensitivity to climate change: An R package for implementing reservoir storage analysis in global and regional impact studies S. Turner & S. Galelli 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.11.007
- Evaluating four downscaling methods for assessment of climate change impact on ecological indicators J. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.016
- Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change R. Nathan et al. 10.1007/s10584-019-02497-4
- ‘Literature review on the analysis of climate change risks in the environmental impact assessment of dams’ A. Loza & T. Fidélis 10.1080/14615517.2021.1893928
- Assessment of rainwater resources in urban areas of reception basins of south-to-north water diversion project under climate change W. Shao et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143898
- Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need? P. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al. 10.1002/joc.5069
- Disaggregated monthly hydrological models can outperform daily models in providing daily flow statistics and extrapolate well to a drying climate A. John et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126471
- Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America J. Tamayo et al. 10.5194/asr-19-105-2022
- Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation T. McMahon et al. 10.5194/hess-19-361-2015
- Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia N. Lockart et al. 10.3354/cr01596
- Generation of multi-site stochastic daily rainfall with four weather generators: a case study of Gloucester catchment in Australia G. Fu et al. 10.1007/s00704-017-2306-3
- Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management A. Horne et al. 10.1093/biosci/biz087
- Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk A. John et al. 10.1002/wcc.692
- Developing flood risk curves of agricultural economic damage under climate change in the Lower Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand A. Budhathoki et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13031
- Nonstationary Runoff Responses Can Interact With Climate Change to Increase Severe Outcomes for Freshwater Ecology A. John et al. 10.1029/2021WR030192
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al. 10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016
- Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature Variations over the Canadian Prairie Provinces under Climate Change X. Zhou et al. 10.3390/rs13214350
- Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters, eastern Tien Shan (1980s–2017) H. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.001
- Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? C. Chadwick et al. 10.3390/w13010064
- Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment B. Soundharajan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.051
- Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India B. Soundharajan et al. 10.5194/piahs-371-49-2015
- Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia M. Haque et al. 10.1002/hyp.10492
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Correcting streamflow bias considering its spatial structure for impact assessment of climate change on floods using d4PDF in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand A. Budhathoki et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101150
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- The time of emergence of climate-induced hydrologic change in Australian rivers A. John et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129371
- Projecting climate change impacts on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau with model calibration against the glacier inventory data and observed streamflow Q. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.043
- Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability A. Gelfan et al. 10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
- Can annual streamflow volumes be characterised by flood events alone? C. Dykman et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128884
- Uncertainties in runoff projections in southwestern Australian catchments using a global climate model with perturbed physics P. Barria et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.040
- Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia B. Henley et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
- A modified Gould-Dincer method to assess yield of carry-over reservoirs with environmental water requirements P. Ren et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129065
- Modeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change A. Leroux et al. 10.3982/QE1597
- Evaluation of statistical downscaling methods for climate change projections over Spain: Present conditions with perfect predictors A. Hernanz et al. 10.1002/joc.7271
- Water supply sensitivity to climate change: An R package for implementing reservoir storage analysis in global and regional impact studies S. Turner & S. Galelli 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.11.007
- Evaluating four downscaling methods for assessment of climate change impact on ecological indicators J. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.016
- Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change R. Nathan et al. 10.1007/s10584-019-02497-4
- ‘Literature review on the analysis of climate change risks in the environmental impact assessment of dams’ A. Loza & T. Fidélis 10.1080/14615517.2021.1893928
- Assessment of rainwater resources in urban areas of reception basins of south-to-north water diversion project under climate change W. Shao et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143898
- Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need? P. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al. 10.1002/joc.5069
- Disaggregated monthly hydrological models can outperform daily models in providing daily flow statistics and extrapolate well to a drying climate A. John et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126471
- Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America J. Tamayo et al. 10.5194/asr-19-105-2022
- Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation T. McMahon et al. 10.5194/hess-19-361-2015
- Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia N. Lockart et al. 10.3354/cr01596
- Generation of multi-site stochastic daily rainfall with four weather generators: a case study of Gloucester catchment in Australia G. Fu et al. 10.1007/s00704-017-2306-3
- Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management A. Horne et al. 10.1093/biosci/biz087
- Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk A. John et al. 10.1002/wcc.692
- Developing flood risk curves of agricultural economic damage under climate change in the Lower Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand A. Budhathoki et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13031
- Nonstationary Runoff Responses Can Interact With Climate Change to Increase Severe Outcomes for Freshwater Ecology A. John et al. 10.1029/2021WR030192
- Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections J. Vidal et al. 10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016
- Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature Variations over the Canadian Prairie Provinces under Climate Change X. Zhou et al. 10.3390/rs13214350
- Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters, eastern Tien Shan (1980s–2017) H. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.001
- Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? C. Chadwick et al. 10.3390/w13010064
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment B. Soundharajan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.051
- Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India B. Soundharajan et al. 10.5194/piahs-371-49-2015
- Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia M. Haque et al. 10.1002/hyp.10492
Saved (final revised paper)
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 09 Dec 2024
Short summary
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary...