Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-320
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-320
04 Feb 2025
 | 04 Feb 2025
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Technical note on incorporating natural variability in master recession curves

Thomas A. McMahon, Rory Nathan, and Richard George

Abstract. In this technical note, we hypothesise that the master recession curve (MRC) is a continuum rather than a single average curve and the natural variability as evidenced in the range of MRCs represents aleatory uncertainty across the continuum and is the result of antecedent hydroclimatic conditions and heterogenous storage conditions in the unconfined aquifer/s feeding the streamflow. For four streams, representing the range of Australian hydrology, master recession curves were computed for five aleatory conditions (90, 75, 50, 25 and 10 percentiles) using the correlation technique. Observed recessions were superimposed on the plots confirming that the continuum of MRCs represented the observed conditions. For one stream, the Northern Arthur River (a 437 km2 in Western Australia yielding 2.7 mm runoff per year), a qualitative model based on field observations supports the continuum concept.

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Thomas A. McMahon, Rory Nathan, and Richard George

Status: open (until 18 Mar 2025)

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Thomas A. McMahon, Rory Nathan, and Richard George
Thomas A. McMahon, Rory Nathan, and Richard George

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Short summary
Master Recession Curves have long been used to estimate the decline in streamflows following rainfall. Although the approach has wide practical application in water management, it can be overly simple and not match all observations. We propose an approach that represents the changes in streamflow behaviour due to variations in climate and geology. The approach matches observed behaviour well, is consistent with field observations, and is well suited to uncertainty analysis.
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