Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, 2015
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, 2015

Research article 08 Apr 2015

Research article | 08 Apr 2015

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

M. C. Peel et al.


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Oct 2014) by Asaad Shamseldin
AR by Murray Peel on behalf of the Authors (08 Dec 2014)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (17 Mar 2015) by Asaad Shamseldin
Short summary
We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty