Articles | Volume 28, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2024
Research article |
| 15 May 2024
| 15 May 2024
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Caroline Legrand
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Benoît Hingray
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Bruno Wilhelm
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
deceased, 5 April 2022
Martin Ménégoz
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-15, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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This work provides a relevant analysis of changes in extreme precipitation over the Caribbean and their link with warming in different ocean basins. It also improves our understanding of the impact of warming on extreme precipitation events, which can cause devastating damage to economic sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, health, and energy.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
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Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
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A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Catherine Ottlé, and Frédérique Cheruy
The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the impact of topography on snow cover parameterizations using models and observations. Parameterizations without topography-based considerations overestimate snow cover. Incorporating topography reduces snow overestimation by 5–10 % in mountains, in turn reducing cold biases. However, some biases remain, requiring further calibration and more data. Assessing snow cover parameterizations is challenging due to limited and uncertain data in mountainous regions.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
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High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
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We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
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This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021
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Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Damien Raynaud, Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Jérémy Chardon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4339–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, 2020
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This research paper proposes a weather generator combining two sampling approaches. A first generator recombines large-scale atmospheric situations. A second generator is applied to these atmospheric trajectories in order to simulate long time series of daily regional precipitation and temperature. The method is applied to daily time series in Switzerland. It reproduces adequately the observed climatology and improves the reproduction of extreme precipitation values.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
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We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Mario Acosta, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Eleftheria Exarchou, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, 2020
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Earth system models (ESMs) are one of the cornerstones of modern climate science. They are usually run on high-performance computers (HPCs). Whether the choice of HPC can affect the model results is a question of importance for optimizing the design of scientific studies. Here, we introduce a protocol for testing the replicability of the EC-Earth3 ESM across different HPCs. We find the simulation results to be replicable only if specific precautions are taken at the compilation stage.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Benoit Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, 2018
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This research paper proposes a multi-site daily precipitation model, named GWEX, which aims to reproduce the statistical features of extremely rare events at different temporal and spatial scales. Recent advances and various statistical methods (regionalization, disaggregation) are considered in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. Performances are shown with an application to 105 stations, covering a large region in Switzerland.
Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, 2018
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We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day.
The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
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Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
A. Kuentz, T. Mathevet, J. Gailhard, and B. Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2717–2736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, 2015
B. François, B. Hingray, F. Hendrickx, and J. D. Creutin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3787–3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell lifecycles with a copula-based approach
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Observation-driven model for calculating water harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Review of Gridded Climate Products and Their Use in Hydrological Analyses Reveals Overlaps, Gaps, and Need for More Objective Approach to Model Forcings
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
Downscaling precipitation over High Mountain Asia using Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Processes: Improved estimates from ERA5
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
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Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
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Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
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We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
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Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
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Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
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The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
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We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
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Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
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The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
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Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
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We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
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The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, 2024
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The paper presents a method for deriving the chance of heavy downpour, the maximum amount expected at various intervals, and explain how the rainfall changes. It suggests that increases are more due to increased amounts on wet days rather than more wet days, and the rainfall intensity is found to be sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, 2024
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This study presents a new algorithm to better model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and to reconstruct storm cell lifecycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential model for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
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Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
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This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
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This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo de Rio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Water resources are fundamental for social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligates us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting emerges as a complementary one in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate fog harvesting potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where fog harvesting could be a viable water source.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
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Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We assess 60 gridded climate datasets [ground- (G), satellite- (S), reanalysis-based (R)]. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; but R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, though better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
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A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
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We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
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We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
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Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
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Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
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Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2145, 2023
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This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High Mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 2 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows comparable or better accuracy to existing benchmark datasets.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
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Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
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Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
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High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
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In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
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This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
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Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
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For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
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We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
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We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
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Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
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The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
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Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
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Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
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Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
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Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
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Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
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Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
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Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
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The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
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We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
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Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
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Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically...
