Articles | Volume 27, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2075-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 01 Jun 2023
| 01 Jun 2023
Uncertainty estimation of regionalised depth–duration–frequency curves in Germany
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Uwe Haberlandt
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany
Related authors
Anne Bartens, Bora Shehu, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1687–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River flow data are often provided as mean daily flows (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flows (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDF instead of IPF and identify means to predict IPF when only MDF data are available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Ross Pidoto, Nejc Bezak, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Bora Shehu, Ana Claudia Callau-Beyer, Katarina Zabret, and Uwe Haberlandt
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 851–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Erosion is a threat for soils with rainfall as the driving force. The annual rainfall erosivity factor quantifies rainfall impact by analysing high-resolution rainfall time series (~ 5 min). Due to a lack of measuring stations, alternatives for its estimation are analysed in this study. The best results are obtained for regionalisation of the erosivity factor itself. However, the identified minimum of 60-year time series length suggests using rainfall generators as in this study as well.
Bora Shehu and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1631–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1631-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate whether similar storms behave similarly and whether the information obtained from past similar storms can improve storm nowcast based on radar data. Here a nearest-neighbour approach is employed to first identify similar storms and later to issue either a single or an ensemble nowcast based on k most similar past storms. The results indicate that the information obtained from similar storms can reduce the errors considerably, especially for convective storm nowcast.
Golbarg Goshtasbpour and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
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We provide a method how to estimate extreme rainfall from radar observations. Extreme value statistic is applied for observed radar rainfall covering different areas from point size up to about 1000 km2. The rainfall extremes are supposed to be as higher as smaller the area is. This behaviour could not be confirmed by the radar observations. The reason is the limited single point sampling approach of the radar data. New multiple point sampling strategies are proposed to mitigate this problem.
Anne Bartens, Bora Shehu, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1687–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River flow data are often provided as mean daily flows (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flows (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDF instead of IPF and identify means to predict IPF when only MDF data are available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Ross Pidoto, Nejc Bezak, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Bora Shehu, Ana Claudia Callau-Beyer, Katarina Zabret, and Uwe Haberlandt
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 851–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Erosion is a threat for soils with rainfall as the driving force. The annual rainfall erosivity factor quantifies rainfall impact by analysing high-resolution rainfall time series (~ 5 min). Due to a lack of measuring stations, alternatives for its estimation are analysed in this study. The best results are obtained for regionalisation of the erosivity factor itself. However, the identified minimum of 60-year time series length suggests using rainfall generators as in this study as well.
Bora Shehu and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1631–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1631-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we investigate whether similar storms behave similarly and whether the information obtained from past similar storms can improve storm nowcast based on radar data. Here a nearest-neighbour approach is employed to first identify similar storms and later to issue either a single or an ensemble nowcast based on k most similar past storms. The results indicate that the information obtained from similar storms can reduce the errors considerably, especially for convective storm nowcast.
Anne Bartens and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-466, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
River flow data is often provided as mean daily flow (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flow (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDFs instead of IPFs and identify means to predict IPFs when only MDF data is available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
Anne Fangmann and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-447-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-flow events are little dynamic in space and time. Thus, it is hypothesized that models can be found, based on simple statistical relationships between low-flow metrics and meteorological states, that can help identify potential low-flow drivers. In this study we assess whether such relationships exist and whether they can be applied to predict future low flow within regional climate change impact assessment in the northwestern part of Germany.
Ehsan Rabiei, Uwe Haberlandt, Monika Sester, Daniel Fitzner, and Markus Wallner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3907–3922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3907-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The value of using moving cars for rainfall measurement purposes (RCs) was investigated with laboratory experiments by Rabiei et al. (2013). They analyzed the Hydreon and Xanonex optical sensors against different rainfall intensities. A continuous investigation of using RCs with the derived uncertainties from laboratory experiments for areal rainfall estimation as well as implementing the data in a hydrological model are addressed in this study.
Uwe Haberlandt and Christian Berndt
Proc. IAHS, 373, 81–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-81-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-81-2016, 2016
U. Haberlandt and I. Radtke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-353-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-353-2014, 2014
E. Rabiei, U. Haberlandt, M. Sester, and D. Fitzner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4701–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4701-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4701-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5373–5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5373-2022, 2022
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Hossein Foroozand and Steven V. Weijs
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In monitoring network design, we have to decide what to measure, where to measure, and when to measure. In this paper, we focus on the question of where to measure. Past literature has used the concept of information to choose a selection of locations that provide maximally informative data. In this paper, we look in detail at the proper mathematical formulation of the information concept as an objective. We argue that previous proposals for this formulation have been needlessly complicated.
Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3967–3982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, 2020
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Stochastically generated streamflow time series are used for various water management and hazard estimation applications. They provide realizations of plausible but yet unobserved streamflow time series with the same characteristics as the observed data. We propose a stochastic simulation approach in the frequency domain instead of the time domain. Our evaluation results suggest that the flexible, continuous simulation approach is valuable for a diverse range of water management applications.
Vincenzo Totaro, Andrea Gioia, and Vito Iacobellis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 473–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-473-2020, 2020
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We highlight the need for power evaluation in the application of null hypothesis significance tests for trend detection in extreme event analysis. In a wide range of conditions, depending on the underlying distribution of data, the test power may reach unacceptably low values. We propose the use of a parametric approach, based on model selection criteria, that allows one to choose the null hypothesis, to select the level of significance, and to check the test power using Monte Carlo experiments.
Phuong Dong Le, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4851–4867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019, 2019
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While conventional approaches focus on flood designs at individual locations, there are many situations requiring an understanding of spatial dependence of floods at multiple locations. This research describes a new framework for analyzing flood characteristics across civil infrastructure systems, including conditional and joint probabilities of floods. This work leads to a new flood estimation paradigm, which focuses on the risk of the entire system rather than each system element in isolation.
Manuela I. Brunner, András Bárdossy, and Reinhard Furrer
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Cong Jiang, Lihua Xiong, Lei Yan, Jianfan Dong, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1683–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019, 2019
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Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1993-2018, 2018
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A new method is proposed to solve the stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system in only one single simulation, as opposed to the many simulations usually done in the popular Monte Carlo approach. The derivation of this new method gave a deterministic and linear Fokker–Planck equation whose solution provided a powerful and effective approach for quantifying the ensemble behavior and variability of such a stochastic system, regardless of the number of parameters causing its uncertainty.
Alain Dib and M. Levent Kavvas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2007–2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2007-2018, 2018
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A newly proposed method is applied to solve a stochastic unsteady open-channel flow system (with an uncertain roughness coefficient) in only one simulation. After comparing its results to those of the Monte Carlo simulations, the new method was found to adequately predict the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density of the flow variables of the system. This revealed the effectiveness, strength, and time efficiency of this new method as compared to other popular approaches.
Liang Gao, Limin Zhang, and Mengqian Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4573–4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4573-2017, 2017
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Rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. However, the rainfall intensity is not uniform in space, which causes more landslides in the area of intense rainfall. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify spatial correlation characteristics of three landslide-triggering large storms in Hong Kong. The spatial maximum rolling rainfall is represented by a trend surface and a random field of residuals. The scales of fluctuation of the residuals are found between 5 km and 30 km.
Elena Shevnina, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Viktor Kovalenko, and Timo Vihma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017, 2017
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Eleni Maria Michailidi and Baldassare Bacchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2497–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2497-2017, 2017
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In this research, we explored how the sampling uncertainty of flood variables (flood peak, volume, etc.) can reflect on a structural variable, which in our case was the maximum water level (MWL) of a reservoir controlled by a dam. Next, we incorporated additional information from different sources for a better estimation of the uncertainty in the probability of exceedance of the MWL. Results showed the importance of providing confidence intervals in the risk assessment of a structure.
M. J. Machado, B. A. Botero, J. López, F. Francés, A. Díez-Herrero, and G. Benito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015
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L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
P. E. O'Connell and G. O'Donnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 155–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-155-2014, 2014
A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, and L. Garrote
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3023–3038, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013, 2013
S. Das and C. Cunnane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 819–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-819-2011, 2011
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2617–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2617-2010, 2010
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, 2010
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2465–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2465-2010, 2010
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 585–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010
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Short summary
Design rainfall volumes at different duration and frequencies are necessary for the planning of water-related systems and facilities. As the procedure for deriving these values is subjected to different sources of uncertainty, here we explore different methods to estimate how precise these values are for different duration, locations and frequencies in Germany. Combining local and spatial simulations, we estimate tolerance ranges from approx. 10–60% for design rainfall volumes in Germany.
Design rainfall volumes at different duration and frequencies are necessary for the planning of...
