Articles | Volume 27, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 2: Comparative assessment of a mixed probability vs. copula-based dependence framework
Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute of Statistics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter Jordan-Straße 82/I, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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Knowing the severity of an extreme event is of particular importance to hydrology and water policies. In this paper we propose a mixed distribution approach for low flows. It provides one consistent approach to quantify the severity of summer, winter, and annual low flows based on their respective annualities (or return periods). We show that the new method is much more accurate than existing methods and should therefore be used by engineers and water agencies.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4553–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Our study uses a statistical boosting model for estimating low flows on a monthly basis, which can be applied to estimate low flows at sites without measurements. We use an extensive dataset of 260 stream gauges in Austria for model development. As we are specifically interested in low-flow events, our method gives specific weight to such events. We found that our method can considerably improve the predictions of low-flow events and yields accurate estimates of the seasonal low-flow variation.
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
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This study aims to predict long-term averages of low flow on a hydrologically diverse dataset in Austria. We compared seven statistical learning methods and included a backward variable selection approach. We found that separating the low-flow processes into winter and summer low flows leads to good performance for all the models. Variable selection results in more parsimonious and more interpretable models. Linear approaches for prediction and variable selection are sufficient for our dataset.
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Short summary
In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes so that return periods used as a measure of event severity will be inaccurate. We propose a novel mixed copula estimator that is shown to outperform previous calculation methods. The new method is highly relevant for a wide range of European river flow regimes and should be used by default.
In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different...