Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Compound flood impact forecasting: integrating fluvial and flash flood impact assessments into a unified system
Josias Láng-Ritter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center of Applied Research in Hydrometeorology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech, Jordi Girona 1-3 (C4-S1), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, 02150 Espoo, Finland
Marc Berenguer
Center of Applied Research in Hydrometeorology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech, Jordi Girona 1-3 (C4-S1), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Francesco Dottori
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Space, Security and Migration Directorate, Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy
Milan Kalas
Freelance consultant, Sladkovicova 228/8, 01401 Bytca, Slovakia
Daniel Sempere-Torres
Center of Applied Research in Hydrometeorology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech, Jordi Girona 1-3 (C4-S1), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-499, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15,000 potential floods riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events were reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Alessandra Bianchi, Jon Skoien, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1549–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of hazard maps for river flooding for Europe and the Mediterranean basin. The maps depict inundation extent and depth for flood probabilities for up to 1-in-500-year flood hazards and are based on hydrological and hydrodynamic models driven by observed climatology. The maps can identify two-thirds of the flood extent reported by official flood maps, with increasing skill for higher-magnitude floods. The maps are used for evaluating present and future impacts of river floods.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Rita Nogherotto, Adriano Fantini, Francesca Raffaele, Fabio Di Sante, Francesco Dottori, Erika Coppola, and Filippo Giorgi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Galateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Milan Kalas, Ilona Láng, Arnau Cangròs i Alonso, Tommaso Sabbatini, and Valerio Lorini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 507–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
First applications of the ANYCaRE experiment revealed that multi-model impact-based outputs help forecasters and civil protection to shape a holistic view of the situation and enhance their confidence in specific emergency activities. This interdisciplinary work is conducted in the frame of the ANYWHERE European project, which aims to provide institutions across Europe with a decision-support tool to better anticipate and respond to extreme weather and climate events.
Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, Peter Salamon, Alessandra Bianchi, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to use river flow forecasts to estimate the impacts of flood events in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage, cities and population at risk. We tested our method by simulating the catastrophic floods occurred in May 2014 in Southern Europe. Comparison with observed data shows that our simulations can predict flooded areas and flood impacts well in advance. The method is now being used for real-time risk forecasts to help emergency response and management.
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Francesco Dottori, Alessio Giardino, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessandra Bianchi, Peter Salamon, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Peter Salamon, Jutta Thielen, Alessandra Bianchi, Francesco Dottori, and Peter Burek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work couples recent advances in large scale flood hazard mapping into a pan-European flood risk model to estimate the impact of river floods in a seamless simulation, covering more than two decades.
Results of this research are an important contribution in the reconstruction of a complete dataset of flood impact data. Also, it has direct implications in the area of flood early warning with regard to the rapid risk assessment of flood impacts.
M. Berenguer, D. Sempere-Torres, and M. Hürlimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 587–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-587-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Global total precipitable water variations and trends during 1958–2021
Spatial variability of seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Simulating one century (1902–2009) of river discharges, low flow sequences and flood events of an alpine river from large-scale atmospheric information
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
Assessing decadal to centennial scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Modelling evaporation with local, regional and global BROOK90 frameworks: importance of parameterization and forcing
Hydrological concept formation inside long short-term memory (LSTM) networks
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
Exploring the possible role of satellite-based rainfall data in estimating inter- and intra-annual global rainfall erosivity
Critical transitions in the hydrological system: early-warning signals and network analysis
Testing a maximum evaporation theory over saturated land: implications for potential evaporation estimation
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-301, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.15 K dec-1, resulting in about 5 % K-1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1958 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced larger warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2:1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed larger variations of 5–11 % K-1 over oceans than over land. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3124, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation Lapse Rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with elevation, influence high-altitude precipitation estimation. This study presents an assessment of PLRs on 2,748 small catchments in France over four seasons. These evaluations emphasize the benefit of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to study the spatial variability of seasonal PLRs at a fine scale.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-147, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves across four seasons. From that, we could know the drought (or heatwave) starts on which day and ends on which day. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and the co-occurring droughts and heatwaves in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of co-occurring droughts and heatwaves.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the Upper Rhône alpine River, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Kyungmin Sung, Max Carl Arne Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-476, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is aims to analyze seasonal and long-term trend of meteorological drought trends under climate change. We merge tree-ring proxy with instrumental datasets to understand multi-centennial trends. We develop an approach for temporal downscaling from bi-annual time series to monthly scale, and develop a model for bias correction and trend analysis across all datasets. The model was applied to 14 sites in US, and found regions with recent wetting/drying trends and rapid seasonal shifts.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning for multi-source precipitation merging over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error in precipitation estimation. This method is robust and may be successfully applied to other areas even with scarce data.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors in soil erosion. A satellite-based global map of rainfall erosivity was constructed using data with a 30 min time interval. It was shown that the satellite-based precipitation products are an interesting option for estimating rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with limited ground data. However, ground-based high-frequency precipitation measurements are (still) essential for accurate estimates of rainfall erosivity.
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated potentially catastrophic transitions in hydrological processes by identifying the early-warning signals which manifest as a
critical slowing downin complex dynamic systems. We then analyzed the precipitation network of cities in the contiguous United States and found that key network parameters, such as the nodal density and the clustering coefficient, exhibit similar dynamic behaviour, which can serve as novel early-warning signals for the hydrological system.
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature, and evaporation over saturated land. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bio-climates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty for the hydrological community.
Cited articles
Aldridge, T., Gunawan, O., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., and Price, D.: A surface
water flooding impact library for flood risk assessment, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18006, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718006, 2016. a
Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., and Thielen, J.:
Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe,
Environ. Sci. Policy, 21, 35–49,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.01.008, 2012. a
Alfieri, L., Berenguer, M., Knechtl, V., Liechti, K., Sempere-Torres, D., and
Zappa, M.: Flash Flood Forecasting Based on Rainfall Thresholds, in:
Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, edited by: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L., and Schaake, J. C.,
Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1223–1260,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_49, 2019. a
AON: Global Catastrophe Recap – September 2019, Tech. rep., AON,
available at: http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/Documents/20191009_analytics-if-september-global-recap.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022),
2019. a
Apel, H., Martínez Trepat, O., Hung, N. N., Chinh, D. T., Merz, B., and Dung, N. V.: Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016. a, b
Arbáizar-Barrios, F.: Episodio de Inundaciones en la Región de
Murcia, 11–15 Septemer 2019, available at:
https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/agua/formacion/presentacion-18-jornada-implantacion-pgris-lecciones-aprendidas-inundaciones2019_regmurcia_tcm30-503800.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022),
2019. a, b
Basher, R.: Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and
people-centred, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 365, 2167–2182,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1819, 2006. a
Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sosa, J., Savage,
J., Olcese, G., Neal, J., Schumann, G., Giustarini, L., Coxon, G., Porter,
J. R., Amodeo, M. F., Chu, Z., Lewis‐Gruss, S., Freeman, N. B., Houser, T.,
Delgado, M., Hamidi, A., Bolliger, I., McCusker, K., Emanuel, K., Ferreira,
C. M., Khalid, A., Haigh, I. D., Couasnon, A., Kopp, R., Hsiang, S., and
Krajewski, W. F.: Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal
Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates, Water Resour. Res.,
57, e2020WR02867, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr028673, 2021. a
Bevington, J., Hankin, B., Berry, R., Gubbin, A., Lowis, A., Pinnell, M.,
Revilla-Romero, B., Shelton, K., and Wood, E.: Flood Foresight: Global Flood
Impact Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 21,
Abstract number EGU2019-15430, available at:
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-15430.pdf
(last access: 2 February 2022), 2019. a
Bolle, A., Das Neves, L., Smets, S., Mollaert, J., and Buitrago, S.: An
impact-oriented Early Warning and Bayesian-based Decision Support System for
flood risks in Zeebrugge harbour, Coast. Eng., 134, 191–202,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.006, 2018. a
Brown, E., Bachmann, D., Cranston, M., De Leeuw, A., Boelee, L., Diermanse,
F., Eilander, D., De Bruijn, K., Weerts, A., Hazlewood, C., and Beckers,
J.: Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting – A
UK pilot application, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18019, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718019, 2016. a
Camus, P., Haigh, I. D., Nasr, A. A., Wahl, T., Darby, S. E., and Nicholls, R. J.: Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021. a
Cassiraga, E., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., Berenguer, M.,
Sempere-Torres, D., and Rodrigo-Ilarri, J.: Spatiotemporal Precipitation
Estimation from Rain Gauges and Meteorological Radar Using Geostatistics,
Math. Geosci., 53, 499–516, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-020-09882-1, 2020. a
Chen, A. S., Djordjevic, S., Leandro, J., and Savic, D. A.: An analysis of the
combined consequences of pluvial and fluvial flooding, Water Sci.
Technol., 62, 1491–1498, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.486, 2010. a, b
CHS: Marco físico, available at:
https://www.chsegura.es/es/cuenca/caracterizacion/marco-fisico/ (last access: 2 February 2022),
2020a. a
CHS: Listado de embalses, available at:
https://www.chsegura.es/es/cuenca/infraestructuras/embalses/listado-de-embalses/ (last access: 2 February 2022),
2020b. a
Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review,
J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005,
2009. a
Cole, S. J., Moore, R. J., Wells, S. C., and Mattingley, P. S.: Real-time
forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences, E3S Web
Conf., 7, 18015,
https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718015,
2016. a
Corral, C., Velasco, D., Forcadell, D., Sempere-Torres, D., and Velasco, E.:
Advances in radar-based flood warning systems. The EHIMI system and the
experience in the Besòs flash-flood pilot basin, in: Flood risk
management: research and practice, edited by: Samuels, P., Huntington, S., Allsop, W., and Harrop, J., Taylor and Francis Group, p. 309, ISBN 9780203883020, 2009. a, b
Corral, C., Berenguer, M., Sempere-Torres, D., Poletti, L., Silvestro, F., and
Rebora, N.: Comparison of two early warning systems for regional flash flood
hazard forecasting, J. Hydrol., 572, 603–619,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.026, 2019. a, b, c, d
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020. a
CRED: Natural Disasters 2018, Tech. rep., Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels, Belgium, available at:
https://www.cred.be/natural-disasters-2018 (last access: 2 February 2022), 2019. a
Croux, C. and Dehon, C.: Influence functions of the Spearman and Kendall
correlation measures, Stat. Method. Appl., 19, 497–515,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-010-0142-z, 2010. a, b
Dale, M., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Laeger, S., and Taylor, S.:
Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative
risk-based approach, Nat. Hazards, 70, 159–172,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z, 2014. a
Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J. C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L., Hirabayashi,
Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., and Feyen, L.:
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic
warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 781–786, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z, 2018. a
Dottori, F., Alfieri, L., Bianchi, A., Skoien, J., and Salamon, P.: A new dataset of river flood hazard maps for Europe and the Mediterranean Basin region, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-313, in review, 2021. a, b, c
European Commission: Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 23 October 2007 on the Assessment and Management of Flood
Risks, Tech. rep., The European Parliament and the Council of the European
Union, available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32007L0060 (last access: 2 February 2022), 2007. a, b, c
Fernández-Montblanc, T., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ciavola, P., Voukouvalas, E.,
Mentaschi, L., Breyiannis, G., Feyen, L., and Salamon, P.: Towards robust
pan-European storm surge forecasting, Ocean Model., 133, 129–144,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.12.001, 2019. a
Ferreira, O., Viavattene, C., Jiménez, J. A., Bolle, A., das Neves, L.,
Plomaritis, T. A., McCall, R., and van Dongeren, A. R.: Storm-induced risk
assessment: Evaluation of two tools at the regional and hotspot scale,
Coast. Eng., 134, 241–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.005,
2018. a
Ferreira, R. N.: Cut-Off Lows and Extreme Precipitation in Eastern Spain:
Current and Future Climate, Atmosphere, 12, 835, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070835,
2021. a
Freire, S., Halkia, M., and Pesaresi, M.: GHS population grid, derived from
EUROSTAT census data (2011) and ESM R2016, European Commission, Joint
Research Centre (JRC) [data set], available at:
http://data.europa.eu/89h/jrc-ghsl-ghs_pop_eurostat_europe_r2016a (last access: 2 February 2022),
2016. a, b, c
García, L., Bermejo, J., Sánchez, J., and Guerrero, J.: Dana 2019
y aspectos relativos a la estimación y tratamiento del riesgo asociado
a inundaciones, in: Riesgo de inundación en España:
análisis y soluciones para la generación de territorios
resilientes, Universidad de Alicante, 143–166, available at:
https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7578902 (last access: 2 February 2022),
2020. a
Georgakakos, K. P.: On the Design of National, Real-Time Warning Systems with
Capability for Site-Specific, Flash-Flood Forecasts, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 67, 1233–1239,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1986)067<1233:OTDONR>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Goldscheider, N., Chen, Z., Auler, A. S., Bakalowicz, M., Broda, S., Drew, D.,
Hartmann, J., Jiang, G., Moosdorf, N., Stevanovic, Z., Veni, G., and De,
C. Z.: Global distribution of carbonate rocks and karst water resources,
Hydrogeol. J., 28, 1661–1677,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02139-5, 2020. a
Guimarães Nobre, G., Moel, H., Giuliani, M., Bischiniotis, K., Aerts,
J. C., and Ward, P. J.: What Will the Weather Do? Forecasting Flood Losses
Based on Oscillation Indices, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001450, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001450,
2020. a
Hapuarachchi, H. A. P., Wang, Q. J., and Pagano, T. C.: A review of advances
in flash flood forecasting, Hydrol. Process., 25, 2771–2784,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8040, 2011. a
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016. a
Hartmann, A., Goldscheider, N., Wagener, T., Lange, J., and Weiler, M.: Karst
water resources in a changing world: Review of hydrological modeling
approaches, Rev. Geophys., 52, 218–242, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000443,
2014. a
Henonin, J., Russo, B., Mark, O., and Gourbesville, P.: Real-time urban flood
forecasting and modelling – a state of the art, J. Hydroinform.,
15, 717–736, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.132, 2013. a
Hofmann, J. and Schüttrumpf, H.: Risk-Based Early Warning System for
Pluvial Flash Floods: Approaches and Foundations, Geosciences, 9, 127,
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9030127, 2019. a
Huizinga, J., de Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W.: Global flood depth-damage
functions: Methodology and the Database with Guidelines, Tech. rep., Joint
Research Centre (JRC), https://doi.org/10.2760/16510, 2017. a, b
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K.,
Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA, ISBN 978-1-107-02506-6, 2018. a, b
Jain, S. K., Mani, P., Jain, S. K., Prakash, P., Singh, V. P., Tullos, D.,
Kumar, S., Agarwal, S. P., and Dimri, A. P.: A Brief review of flood
forecasting techniques and their applications, International Journal of
River Basin Management, 16, 329–344, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1411920,
2018. a
Javelle, P., Organde, D., Demargne, J., Saint-Martin, C., de Saint-Aubin, C.,
Garandeau, L., and Janet, B.: Setting up a French national flash flood
warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18010, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718010, 2016. a
Kirpich, Z.: Time of concentration of small agricultural watersheds, Civil
Eng. 10, 362, 1940. a
Kohno, N., Dube, S. K., Entel, M., Fakhruddin, S., Greenslade, D., Leroux,
M.-D., Rhome, J., and Thuy, N. B.: Recent Progress in Storm Surge
Forecasting, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 7, 128–139,
https://doi.org/10.6057/2018TCRR02.04, 2018. a
Le Bihan, G., Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., Moncoulon, D., and Pons, F.: The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5911–5928, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5911-2017, 2017. a
Martín León, F.: Las gotas frías/DANAs: ideas y conceptos
básicos, Tech. rep., INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGÍA, Madrid, ISBN 84-8320-247-6,
2003. a
Mazzetti, C. and Harrigan, S.: What's new in EFAS 4.0?, available at:
https://www.efas.eu/sites/default/files/AM/AM2020/EFAS_AM_2020_2_What is new in EFAS4.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022), 2020. a
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., V
Domeisen, D. I., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F.,
Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H.-J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K.,
Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support
Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020. a, b, c, d
Munich Re: Flood risk: Underestimated natural hazards, available at:
https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards/floods-and-flash-floods-underestimated-natural-hazards.html (last access: 2 February 2022),
2020. a
Nazemi, A. and Wheater, H. S.: On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models – Part 2: Representation of water supply and allocation and opportunities for improved modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 63–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-63-2015, 2015. a
Niemi, T., Baugh, C., Berenguer, M., Berruezo, A., Leinonen, M., von Lerber, A., Park, S., Prudhomme, C., Pulkkinen, S., and Ritvanen, J.: Advanced Tools for pro-Active Management of Impacts and Risks Induced by Convective Weather, Heavy Rain and Flash floods in Europe – TAMIR project, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8194, 2021. a
Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Parker, D. J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson,
D. S., and Thielen, J.: The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in
Europe, Environ. Sci. Policy, 51, 278–291,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016, 2015. a
Park, S., Berenguer, M., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Long-term analysis of
gauge-adjusted radar rainfall accumulations at European scale, J.
Hydrol., 573, 768–777,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.093, 2019. a
Rebora, N., Vicente, C., De Ferrari, R., Cangros, A., Sutanto, S., van Lanen,
H. A., Karvonen, M., Von Lerber, A., Bergman, T., Peter, A., Moy, J. S.,
Botey, P., Torres, R. M., and Santiago, A.: ANYWHERE Project Deliverable
6.5: Final report compiling the results of the A4EU in each pilot site,
Tech. rep., available at:
http://www.anywhere-h2020.eu/wp-content/uploads/docs/D6.5_submitted.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022),
2019. a
Ritter, J., Corzo, G., Solomatine, D., and Angarita, H.: Multiobjective Direct
Policy Search Using Physically Based Operating Rules in Multireservoir
Systems, J. Water Res. Pl., 146, 05020002,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001159, 2020b. a
Ritter, J., Berenguer, M., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Real-time
Assessment of Flash Flood Impacts at pan-European scale: The ReAFFINE
method, J. Hydrol., 603, 127022,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127022, 2021a. a, b
Ritter, J., Berenguer, M., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Rapid flash flood impact assessments at different spatial scales, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14444, 2021b. a, b
Roo, A. P. J. D., Wesseling, C. G., and Deursen, W. P. A. V.: Physically based
river basin modelling within a GIS: the LISFLOOD model, Hydrol.
Process., 14, 1981–1992,
https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-1085(20000815/30)14:11/12<1981::AID-HYP49>3.0.CO;2-F,
2000. a
Rözer, V., Peche, A., Berkhahn, S., Feng, Y., Fuchs, L., Graf, T.,
Haberlandt, U., Kreibich, H., Sämann, R., Sester, M., Shehu, B., Wahl,
J., and Neuweiler, I.: Impact‐Based Forecasting for Pluvial Floods,
Earth's Future, 9, 2020EF001851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001851, 2021. a
Saint-Martin, C., Fouchier, C., Javelle, P., Douvinet, J., and Vinet, F.:
Assessing the exposure to floods to estimate the risk of flood-related
damage in French Mediterranean basins, E3S Web Conf., 7,
04013, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160704013, 2016. a
Saltikoff, E., Haase, G., Delobbe, L., Gaussiat, N., Martet, M., Idziorek, D.,
Leijnse, H., Novák, P., Lukach, M., and Stephan, K.: OPERA the radar
project, Atmosphere, 10, 320, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060320, 2019. a
Santiago-Collazo, F. L., Bilskie, M. V., and Hagen, S. C.: A comprehensive
review of compound inundation models in low-gradient coastal watersheds,
Environ. Modell. Softw., 119, 166–181,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.002, 2019. a, b
Silvestro, F., Rossi, L., Campo, L., Parodi, A., Fiori, E., Rudari, R., and
Ferraris, L.: Impact-based flash-flood forecasting system: Sensitivity to
high resolution numerical weather prediction systems and soil moisture,
J. Hydrol., 572, 388–402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.055,
2019. a
Speight, L., Cole, S. J., Moore, R. J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B.,
Cranston, M., Tavendale, A., Dhondia, J., and Ghimire, S.: Developing
surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational
pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, J. Flood Risk
Manag., 11, S884–S901, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12281, 2018. a
Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L., Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C.,
Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M., and Zsoter, E.: Key factors influencing the
severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones, J.
Hydrometeorol., 22, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0250.1, 2021. a
UNISDR: Developing Early Warning Systems: A checklist. The conclusions of the
third international conference on early warning, Tech. rep., United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Bonn, Germany, available at: https://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/info-resources/ewc3/checklist/English.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022), 2006. a
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Making
Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management, Tech. rep.,
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction,
available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/gar-pdf/GAR2015_EN.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022), 2015a. a
UNISDR: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Tech. rep.,
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, available at: https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030
(last access: 2 February 2022),
2015b. a
Van Der Knijff, J. M., Younis, J., and De Roo, A. P. J.: LISFLOOD: a
GIS‐based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood
simulation, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 24,
189–212, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810802549154, 2010. a
Vaz, N.: Visualizing the Impacts of NWS Coastal Flood Forecasts using NWS
Impacts Catalogs and NOAA Coastal Inundation Viewer, available at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/coastalflood/Understanding Coastal Impacts.pdf (last access: 2 February 2022), 2017.
a
Velasco-Forero, C. A., Sempere-Torres, D., Cassiraga, E. F., and
Gómez-Hernández, J. J.: A non-parametric automatic blending
methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data,
Adv. Water Resour., 32, 986–1002,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.10.004, 2009. a
Versini, P.-A., Gaume, E., and Andrieu, H.: Application of a distributed hydrological model to the design of a road inundation warning system for flash flood prone areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 805–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-805-2010, 2010. a
Wahl, T., Jain, S., Bender, J., Meyers, S. D., and Luther, M. E.: Increasing
risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities,
Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1093–1097, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2736, 2015. a, b
WMO: Guidelines on the Definition and Monitoring of Extreme Weather and
Climate Events – Final draft, Tech. rep., World Meteorological Organiation, available at:
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/event/related_docs/DraftversionoftheGuidelinesonthe DefinitionandMonitoringofExtremeWeatherandClimateEvents.pdf?h2Kr0f7dXp6CXZzoclQYveoEQ9FNoO5r (last access: 2 February 2022),
2018a. a
WMO: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems: A Checklist. Outcome of the first
Multi-hazard Early Warning Conference, Tech. rep., World Meteorological
Organization, Cancún, Mexico, available at: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4463 (last access: 2 February 2022), 2018b. a
World Bank: Natural hazards, unnatural disasters: the economics of
effective prevention, World Bank, available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2512 (last access: 2 February 2022), 2010. a
Zanchetta, A. D. and Coulibaly, P.: Recent advances in real-time pluvial flash
flood forecasting, Water (Switzerland), 12, 570, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020570,
2020. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M., Maraun, D., Ramos, A., Ridder, N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-8572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8572, 2020. a
Short summary
During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood...