Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 17 Jun 2021
| 17 Jun 2021
Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8006 Zurich, Switzerland
Markus Hrachowitz
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Harry Zekollari
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Gerrit Schoups
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Miren Vizcaino
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, the Netherlands
Roland Kaitna
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Related authors
Magali Ponds, Sarah Hanus, Harry Zekollari, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Gerrit Schoups, Roland Kaitna, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3545–3568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This research examines how future climate changes impact root zone storage, a key hydrological model parameter. Root zone storage – the soil water accessible to plants – adapts to climate but is often kept constant in models. We estimated climate-adapted storage in six Austrian Alps catchments. While storage increased, streamflow projections showed minimal change, which suggests that dynamic root zone representation is less critical in humid regions but warrants further study in arid areas.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Samar Minallah, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter Leguy, and Harry Zekollari
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5467-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new modeling framework within an Earth system model to study mountain glacier evolution under different climate scenarios, applied here to the European Alps. Substantial Alpine glacier mass loss is projected under current climate conditions, with near-total loss under further warming. This is the first use of a 3D, higher-order ice-flow model for regional glacier simulations, enabling assessment of coupled land ice–Earth system processes.
Hatice Türk, Christine Stumpp, Markus Hrachowitz, Karsten Schulz, Peter Strauss, Günter Blöschl, and Michael Stockinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3935–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3935-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3935-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using advances in transit time estimation and tracer data, we tested if fast-flow transit times are controlled solely by soil moisture or if they are also controlled by precipitation intensity. We used soil-moisture-dependent and precipitation-intensity-conditional transfer functions. We showed that a significant portion of event water bypasses the soil matrix through fast flow paths (overland flow, tile drains, preferential-flow paths) in dry soil conditions for both low- and high-intensity precipitation.
Magali Ponds, Sarah Hanus, Harry Zekollari, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Gerrit Schoups, Roland Kaitna, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3545–3568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This research examines how future climate changes impact root zone storage, a key hydrological model parameter. Root zone storage – the soil water accessible to plants – adapts to climate but is often kept constant in models. We estimated climate-adapted storage in six Austrian Alps catchments. While storage increased, streamflow projections showed minimal change, which suggests that dynamic root zone representation is less critical in humid regions but warrants further study in arid areas.
Roya Mourad, Gerrit Schoups, Vinnarasi Rajendran, and Wim Bastiaanssen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3047, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Water balance data are affected by various errors (bias and noise). To reduce these errors, this study presents a water balance data fusion approach that combines multi-scale data (from satellites and in-situ sensors) for each water balance variable and jointly calibrates them, resulting in consistent, bias-corrected and noise-filtered, water balance estimates, along with uncertainty bands. These estimates are useful for constraining process-based models and informing water management decisions.
Hatice Türk, Christine Stumpp, Markus Hrachowitz, Peter Strauss, Günter Blöschl, and Michael Stockinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2597, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that stream flow isotope data (δ2H) were inadequate for distinguishing preferential groundwater flow. Large passive groundwater storage dampened δ2H variations, obscuring signals of fast groundwater flow and complicating the estimation of older water fractions in the streams. Further, weekly-resolution δ2H sampling yielded deceptively high model performance, highlighting the need for complementary and groundwater-level data to improve catchment-scale transit-time estimates.
Thirza Feenstra, Miren Vizcaino, Bert Wouters, Michele Petrini, Raymond Sellevold, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
The Cryosphere, 19, 2289–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first evaluation of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and climate feedbacks with a CMIP model. Under 4×CO2 forcing, lower elevations reduce GrIS summer blocking and incoming solar radiation and increase precipitation. Simulated increases of near-surface summer temperature are much lower than the 6 K km-1 lapse rate that is commonly used in non-coupled simulations. CO2 reduction to pre-industrial (PI) halts GrIS mass loss regardless of higher global warming and albedo than PI control.
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1502, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
On 29 October 2024 Valencia (Spain) was struck by torrential rainfall, triggering devastating floods in this area. In this study, we quantify and describe the spatial and temporal structure of this rainfall event using personal weather stations (PWSs). These PWSs provide near real-time observations at a temporal resolution of ~5 min. This study shows the potential of PWSs for real-time rainfall monitoring and potentially flood early warning systems by complementing dedicated rain gauge networks.
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1703–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The quantification of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is vital for water resources management. The Budyko framework, based on aridity and evaporative indices of a catchment, can be an ideal tool for that. However, recent research highlights deviations of catchments from the expected evaporative index, casting doubt on its reliability. This study quantifies deviations of 2387 catchments, finding them minor and predictable. Integrating these into predictions upholds the framework's efficacy.
Wouter R. Berghuijs, Ross A. Woods, Bailey J. Anderson, Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1319–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water balances of catchments will often strongly depend on their state in the recent past, but such memory effects may persist at annual timescales. We use global data sets to show that annual memory is typically absent in precipitation but strong in terrestrial water stores and also present in evaporation and streamflow (including low flows and floods). Our experiments show that hysteretic models provide behaviour that is consistent with these observed memory behaviours.
Thiago Victor Medeiros do Nascimento, Julia Rudlang, Sebastian Gnann, Jan Seibert, Markus Hrachowitz, and Fabrizio Fenicia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-739, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-sample hydrological studies often overlook the importance of detailed landscape data in explaining river flow variability. Analyzing over 4,000 European catchments, we found that geology becomes a dominant factor—especially for baseflow—when using detailed regional maps. This highlights the need for high-resolution geological data to improve river flow regionalization, particularly in non-monitored areas.
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Nathalie Rombeek, Markus Hrachowitz, Arjan Droste, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rain gauge networks from personal weather stations (PWSs) have a network density 100 times higher than dedicated rain gauge networks in the Netherlands. However, PWSs are prone to several sources of error, as they are generally not installed and maintained according to international guidelines. This study systematically quantifies and describes the uncertainties arising from PWS rainfall estimates. In particular, the focus is on the highest rainfall accumulations.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Hongkai Gao, Markus Hrachowitz, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Fabrizio Fenicia, Qiaojuan Xi, Jianyang Xia, Wei Shao, Ge Sun, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4477–4499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of the root zone is widely used but lacks a precise definition. Its importance in Earth system science is not well elaborated upon. Here, we clarified its definition with several similar terms to bridge the multi-disciplinary gap. We underscore the key role of the root zone in the Earth system, which links the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere. To better represent the root zone, we advocate for a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-centred modelling.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Andrea Alessandri, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2313–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating the water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere via roots; this transport depends on the extent of the root system. In this study, we quantified the effect of irrigation on roots at a global scale. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation in estimating the vegetation root extent, which is essential to adequately represent the water cycle in hydrological and climate models.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, Emanuele Di Carlo, Franco Catalano, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1239-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation largely controls land hydrology by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere through roots and is highly variable in space and time. However, current land surface models have limitations in capturing this variability at a global scale, limiting accurate modeling of land hydrology. We found that satellite-based vegetation variability considerably improved modeled land hydrology and therefore has potential to improve climate predictions of, for example, droughts.
Jessica A. Eisma, Gerrit Schoups, Jeffrey C. Davids, and Nick van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3565–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Citizen scientists often submit high-quality data, but a robust method for assessing data quality is needed. This study develops a semi-automated program that characterizes the mistakes made by citizen scientists by grouping them into communities of citizen scientists with similar mistake tendencies and flags potentially erroneous data for further review. This work may help citizen science programs assess the quality of their data and can inform training practices.
Anja Løkkegaard, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Christian Zdanowicz, Gary D. Clow, Martin P. Lüthi, Samuel H. Doyle, Henrik H. Thomsen, David Fisher, Joel Harper, Andy Aschwanden, Bo M. Vinther, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Harry Zekollari, Toby Meierbachtol, Ian McDowell, Neil Humphrey, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Shfaqat A. Khan, Benjamin Hills, Robert Law, Bryn Hubbard, Poul Christoffersen, Mylène Jacquemart, Julien Seguinot, Robert S. Fausto, and William T. Colgan
The Cryosphere, 17, 3829–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a database compiling 95 ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps. Ice viscosity and hence ice flow are highly sensitive to ice temperature. To highlight the value of the database in evaluating ice flow simulations, profiles from the Greenland ice sheet are compared to a modeled temperature field. Reoccurring discrepancies between modeled and observed temperatures provide insight on the difficulties faced when simulating ice temperatures.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Pau Wiersma, Jerom Aerts, Harry Zekollari, Markus Hrachowitz, Niels Drost, Matthias Huss, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Rolf Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5971–5986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether coupling a global glacier model (GloGEM) with a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) leads to a more realistic glacier representation and to improved basin runoff simulations across 25 large-scale basins. The coupling does lead to improved glacier representation, mainly by accounting for glacier flow and net glacier mass loss, and to improved basin runoff simulations, mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Andrew Mitchell, Sophia Zubrycky, Scott McDougall, Jordan Aaron, Mylène Jacquemart, Johannes Hübl, Roland Kaitna, and Christoph Graf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1627–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are complex, surging movements of sediment and water. Discharge observations from well-studied debris-flow channels were used as inputs for a numerical modelling study of the downstream effects of chaotic inflows. The results show that downstream impacts are sensitive to inflow conditions. Inflow conditions for predictive modelling are highly uncertain, and our method provides a means to estimate the potential variability in future events.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1695-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the ability of non-parametric Bayesian networks to reproduce maximum daily discharge in a given month in a catchment when the remaining hydro-meteorological and catchment attributes are known. We show that a saturated network evaluated in an individual catchment can reproduce statistical characteristics of discharge in about ~ 40 % of the cases, while challenges remain when a saturated network considering all the catchments together is evaluated.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Markus Hrachowitz, Michael Stockinger, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, Heye Bogena, Andreas Lücke, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4887–4915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 725–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roots of vegetation largely control the Earth's water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere but are not adequately represented in land surface models, causing uncertainties in modeled water fluxes. We replaced the root parameters in an existing model with more realistic ones that account for a climate control on root development and found improved timing of modeled river discharge. Further extension of our approach could improve modeled water fluxes globally.
Loris Compagno, Sarah Eggs, Matthias Huss, Harry Zekollari, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 15, 2593–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, discussions have focused on the difference in limiting the increase in global average temperatures to below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C compared to preindustrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that the different temperature targets have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-147-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Cited articles
Abermann, J., Fischer, A., Lambrecht, A., and Geist, T.: On the potential of
very high-resolution repeat DEMs in glacial and periglacial environments, The Cryosphere, 4, 53–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-53-2010, 2010. a
Addor, N., Rössler, O., Köplin, N., Huss, M., Weingartner, R., and
Seibert, J.: Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected
hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7541–7562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015549, 2014. a
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005. a
Bavay, M., Grünewald, T., and Lehning, M.: Response of snow cover and
runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland,
Adv. Water Resour., 55, 4–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.12.009, 2013. a
Berghuijs, W., Woods, R., and Hrachowitz, M.: A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 583–586, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2246, 2014. a
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: model calibration
and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298, 1992. a
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A., Merz, B.,
Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frolova, N., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S. Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.: Changing climate shifts timing of European floods, Science, 357, 588–590, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506, 2017. a, b, c
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A., Parajka, J.,
Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., and Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A.,
Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R.,
Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A.,
Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and
Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019. a, b
BMLFUW: Hydrological Atlas of Austria, 3rd Edn., Bundesministerium für
Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft, Wien, ISBN 3-85437-250-7, 2007. a
Bouaziz, L. J. E., Fenicia, F., Thirel, G., de Boer-Euser, T., Buitink, J.,
Brauer, C. C., De Niel, J., Dewals, B. J., Drogue, G., Grelier, B., Melsen,
L. A., Moustakas, S., Nossent, J., Pereira, F., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J.,
Weerts, A. H., Willems, P., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: Behind
the scenes of streamflow model performance, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25,
1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021. a
Brunetti, M., Lentini, G., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T., Auer, I., Boehm, R., and
Schoener, W.: Climate variability and change in the Greater Alpine Region
over the last two centuries based on multi-variable analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 2197–2225, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1857, 2009. a
Brunner, M. I., Farinotti, D., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Zappa, M.: Future
shifts in extreme flow regimes in Alpine regions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci,
23, 4471–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, 2019a. a, b
Brunner, M. I., Gurung, A. B., Zappa, M., Zekollari, H., Farinotti, D., and
Stähli, M.: Present and future water scarcity in Switzerland: Potential
for alleviation through reservoirs and lakes, Sci. Total Environ., 666, 1033–1047, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.169, 2019b. a
Brunner, M. I., Melsen, L. A., Newman, A. J., Wood, A. W., and Clark, M. P.:
Future streamflow regime changes in the United States: assessment using
functional classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020. a
Budyko, M.: Evaporation under natural conditions, Gidrometeorizdat, Leningrad, English translation by IPST, Jerusalem, 1948. a
Cauvy-Fraunié, S. and Dangles, O.: A global synthesis of biodiversity
responses to glacier retreat, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 3, 1675–1685, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1042-8, 2019. a
Cramer, W., Yohe, G., Auffhammer, M., Huggel, C., Molau, U., da Silva Dias, M., Solow, A., Stone, D., and Tibig, L.: Detection and attribution of observed impacts, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 979–1037, 2014. a
Criss, R. E. and Winston, W. E.: Do Nash values have value? Discussion and
alternate proposals, Hydrol. Process., 22, 2723–2725, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7072, 2008. a
Dobler, C., Bürger, G., and Stötter, J.: Assessment of climate change impacts on flood hazard potential in the Alpine Lech watershed, J. Hydrol.,
460, 29–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.027, 2012. a, b
Duethmann, D. and Blöschl, G.: Why has catchment evaporation increased in the past 40 years? A data-based study in Austria, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5143–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5143-2018, 2018. a
Duethmann, D., Blöschl, G., and Parajka, J.: Why does a conceptual
hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to
climate change?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3493–3511,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020, 2020. a
Efstratiadis, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: One decade of multi-objective
calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 58–78, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660903526292, 2010. a
Euser, T., Winsemius, H. C., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Uhlenbrook, S., and Savenije, H. H. G.: A framework to assess the realism of model structures using hydrological signatures, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1893–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013, 2013. a, b
Evin, G., Somot, S., and Hingray, B.: Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-8, in review, 2021. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Farinotti, D., Round, V., Huss, M., Compagno, L., and Zekollari, H.: Large
hydropower and water-storage potential in future glacier-free basins, Nature, 575, 341–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1740-z, 2019. a
Finger, D., Vis, M., Huss, M., and Seibert, J.: The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of
hydrological models in mountain catchments, Water Resour. Res., 51, 1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015712, 2015. a
Frank, D., Poulter, B., Saurer, M., Esper, J., Huntingford, C., Helle, G.,
Treydte, K., Zimmermann, N. E., Schleser, G., Ahlström, A., Ciais, P.,
Friedlingstein, P., Levis, S., Lomas, M., Sitch, S., Viovy, N., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., D'Alessandro, C., M. Daux, V., Filot, M., Grabner, M., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krapiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Marah, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A. Pawelczyk, S.,
Pierre, M., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds-Henne, C. E., Rinne, K. T.,
Saracino, A., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, V. R., Szczepanek, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J. S., and Weigl, M.: Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 579–583, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2614, 2015. a
Gao, H., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Gharari, S., and Savenije, H.: Testing
the realism of a topography-driven model (FLEX-Topo) in the nested catchments
of the Upper Heihe, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1895–1915,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1895-2014, 2014. a
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Hydrological landscape classification: investigating the performance of HAND based landscape classifications in a central European meso-scale catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3275–3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3275-2011, 2011. a
Gharari, S., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Gao, H., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4839–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014. a
Girons Lopez, M., Vis, M. J., Jenicek, M., Griessinger, N., and Seibert, J.:
Assessing the degree of detail of temperature-based snow routines for runoff
modelling in mountainous areas in central Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020. a
Hakala, K., Addor, N., Gobbe, T., Ruffieux, J., and Seibert, J.: Risks and
opportunities for a Swiss hydroelectricity company in a changing climate,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020,
2020. a
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Terra Snow Cover Daily L3 Global 500 m SIN Grid, Version 6, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD10A1.006, 2016. a
Hanus, S.: sarah-hanus/hbv-mountain: Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model in Julia Programming Language (Version v1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4964641, 2021a. a
Hanus, S.: Modelled runoff in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria [Data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4539986, 2021b. a
Hanzer, F., Förster, K., Nemec, J., and Strasser, U.: Projected
cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the
Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1593–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018,
2018. a, b, c, d
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference Crop Evapotranspiration from
Temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1, 96–99, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773, 1985. a
Her, Y., Yoo, S.-H., Cho, J., Hwang, S., Jeong, J., and Seong, C.: Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions, Sci. Rep., 9, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7, 2019. a
Hrachowitz, M. and Weiler, M.: Uncertainty of Precipitation Estimates Caused
by Sparse Gauging Networks in a Small, Mountainous Watershed, J. Hydrol.
Eng., 16, 460–471, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000331, 2011. a, b
Hrachowitz, M., Fovet, O., Ruiz, L., Euser, T., Gharari, S., Nijzink, R.,
Freer, J., Savenije, H., and Gascuel-Odoux, C.: Process consistency in models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process
complexity, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7445–7469, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015484,
2014. a, b, c
Hrachowitz, M., Stockinger, M., Coenders-Gerrits, M., van der Ent, R., Bogena, H., Lücke, A., and Stumpp, C.: Deforestation reduces the vegetation-accessible water storage in the unsaturated soil and affects catchment travel time distributions and young water fractions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-293, in review, 2020. a
Hulsman, P., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: Learning from satellite
observations: increased understanding of catchment processes through stepwise
model improvement, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 25, 957–982,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-957-2021, 2021. a, b
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: A new model for global glacier change and sea-level
rise, Front. Earth Sci., 3, 54, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00054, 2015. a
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T.,
Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M.,
Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577, 364–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp., 2007. a
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer,
L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A.,
Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S.,
Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M.,
Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R.,
Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a, b
Jaramillo, F. and Destouni, G.: Developing water change spectra and
distinguishing change drivers worldwide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8377–8386, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061848, 2014. a
Jenicek, M., Seibert, J., and Staudinger, M.: Modeling of future changes in
seasonal snowpack and impacts on summer low flows in alpine catchments, Water Resour. Res., 54, 538–556, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021648, 2018. a, b
Kling, H.: Spatio-temporal Modelling of the Water Balance of Austria, PhD thesis, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 2006. a
Knoben, W. J. M., Freer, J. E., Peel, M. C., Fowler, K. J. A., and Woods, R. A.: A Brief Analysis of Conceptual Model Structure Uncertainty Using 36 Models and 559 Catchments, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR025975,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025975, 2020. a
Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D., and Weingartner, R.: Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change, Hydrol. Process., 28, 2567–2578, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9757, 2014. a, b, c
Kormann, C., Francke, T., and Bronstert, A.: Detection of regional climate
change effects on alpine hydrology by daily resolution trend analysis in
Tyrol, Austria, J. Water Clim. Change, 6, 124–143, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.099, 2015. a, b
Laaha, G., Parajka, J., Viglione, A., Koffler, D., Haslinger, K., Schöner, W., Zehetgruber, J., and Blöschl, G.: A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3967–3985, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3967-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Lambrecht, A. and Kuhn, M.: Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the
last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 177–184, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871341, 2007. a
Laurent, L., Buoncristiani, J.-F., Pohl, B., Zekollari, H., Farinotti, D.,
Huss, M., Mugnier, J.-L., and Pergaud, J.: The impact of climate change and
glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif, Sci. Rep., 10,
1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67379-7, 2020. a, b
MacDonald, M., Pomeroy, J., and Pietroniro, A.: On the importance of
sublimation to an alpine snow mass balance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1401–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1401-2010, 2010. a
Mankin, J. S., Viviroli, D., Mekonnen, M. M., Hoekstra, A. Y., Horton, R. M.,
Smerdon, J. E., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Influence of internal variability on
population exposure to hydroclimatic changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 044007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5efc, 2017. a
Marty, C., Schlögl, S., Bavay, M., and Lehning, M.: How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps, The Cryosphere, 11, 517–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-517-2017, 2017. a
Marx, A., Kumar, R., Thober, S., Rakovec, O., Wanders, N., Zink, M., Wood,
E. F., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., and Samaniego, L.: Climate change alters low
flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1017-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: A process typology of regional floods, Water
Resour. Res., 39, 1340–1359, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001952, 2003. a
Mostbauer, K., Kaitna, R., Prenner, D., and Hrachowitz, M.: The temporally
varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow
initiation in a snow-dominated system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22,
3493–3513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3493-2018, 2018. a
Muelchi, R., Rössler, O., Schwanbeck, J., Weingartner, R., and Martius, O.: Future runoff regime changes and their time of emergence for 93 catchments in Switzerland, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-516, in review, 2020. a
Nijzink, R., Hutton, C., Pechlivanidis, I., Capell, R., Arheimer, B., Freer,
J., Han, D., Wagener, T., McGuire, K., Savenije, H., and Hrachowitz, M.: The
evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step
towards hydrological predictions under change?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20,
4775–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4775-2016, 2016. a
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil,
F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped
rainfall–runoff model?: Part 2 – Towards a simple and efficient potential
evapotranspiration model for rainfall–runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303,
290–306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.026, 2005. a
Parajka, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, R., Szolgay, J., Hlavčová, K.,
and Blöschl, G.: Comparative analysis of the seasonality of hydrological
characteristics in Slovakia and Austria/Analyse comparative de la
saisonnalité de caractéristiques hydrologiques en Slovaquie et en
Autriche, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 456–473, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.456, 2009. a
Parajka, J., Kohnová, S., Bálint, G., Barbuc, M., Borga, M., Claps, P., Cheval, S., Dumitrescu, A., Gaume, E., Hlavčová, K., Merz, R., Pfaundler, M., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., and Blöschl, G.: Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range, J. Hydrol., 394, 78–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.015, 2010. a, b
Parajka, J., Blaschke, A. P., Blöschl, G., Haslinger, K., Hepp, G., Laaha, G., Schöner, W., Trautvetter, H., Viglione, A., and Zessner, M.:
Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 20, 2085–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Prenner, D., Kaitna, R., Mostbauer, K., and Hrachowitz, M.: The value of using multiple hydrometeorological variables to predict temporal debris flow
susceptibility in an alpine environment, Water Resour. Res., 54, 6822–6843,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022985, 2018. a, b
Prenner, D., Hrachowitz, M., and Kaitna, R.: Trigger characteristics of
torrential flows from high to low alpine regions in Austria. Sci. Total
Environ., 658, 958–972, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.206, 2019. a
Roodari, A., Hrachowitz, M., Hassanpour, F., and Yaghoobzadeh, M.: Signatures
of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological
drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate
variability and land use change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021. a
Savenije, H. H.: HESS Opinions “Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 14, 2681–2692,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2681-2010, 2010. a
Schaefli, B., Manso, P., Fischer, M., Huss, M., and Farinotti, D.: The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production, Renew. Energ., 132,
615–627, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.07.104, 2019. a
Schneeberger, K., Dobler, C., Huttenlau, M., and Stötter, J.: Assessing
potential climate change impacts on the seasonality of runoff in an Alpine
watershed, J. Water Clim. Change, 6, 263–277, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.106,
2015. a, b
Seibert, J. and Vis, M. J.: Teaching hydrological modeling with a
user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 16, 3315–3325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3315-2012, 2012. a
Seiller, G. and Anctil, F.: How do potential evapotranspiration formulas
influence hydrological projections?, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 2249–2266,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1100302, 2016. a
Smiatek, G., Kunstmann, H., and Senatore, A.: EURO-CORDEX regional climate
model analysis for the Greater Alpine Region: Performance and expected future
change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 7710–7728, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024727,
2016. a
Switanek, M. B., Troch, P. A., Castro, C. L., Leuprecht, A., Chang, H.-I.,
Mukherjee, R., and Demaria, E. M.: Scaled distribution mapping: a bias correction method that preserves raw climate model projected changes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2649–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, 2017. a
Switanek, M. B., Maraun, D., and Bevacqua, E.: Stochastic downscaling of
gridded precipitation to spatially coherent sub-grid precipitation fields
using a transformed Gaussian model, submitted, 2021. a
Tecklenburg, C., Francke, T., Kormann, C., and Bronstert, A.: Modeling of
water balance response to an extreme future scenario in the Ötztal
catchment, Austria, Adv. Geosci., 32, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-32-63-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model
simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and
evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012. a
Thieken, A. H., Cammerer, H., Dobler, C., Lammel, J., and Schöberl, F.:
Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation
strategies – a case study from Tyrol, Austria, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 21,
343–376, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9602-3, 2016. a
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014003,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018. a
Thornthwaite, C. W.: An approach toward a rational classification of climate,
Geogr. Rev., 38, 55–94, 1948. a
Viviroli, D., Dürr, H. H., Messerli, B., Meybeck, M., and Weingartner, R.: Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and
global significance, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07447, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653, 2007. a
Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Heistermann, M., and Bronstert, A.: Climate change
impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods–projections
and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-913-2015, 2015.
a
Vormoor, K., Rössler, O., Bürger, G., Bronstert, A., and Weingartner,
R.: When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff
response surfaces, Climatic Change, 142, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1940-1, 2017. a
Young, A. R., Round, C. E., and Gustard, A.: Spatial and temporal variations in the occurrence of low flow events in the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 35–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-35-2000, 2000. a
Zekollari, H., Huss, M., and Farinotti, D.: Modelling the future evolution of
glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, The
Cryosphere, 13, 1125–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019, 2019. a, b
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine...
