Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2019
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2019
| 14 Feb 2019
Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study
KU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Patrick Willems
KU Leuven, Hydraulics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
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Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, 2020
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In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, 2017
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In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, 2022
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As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Hossein Tabari, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Daan Buekenhout, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3493–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, 2021
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, 2021
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The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
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We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Benjamin Campforts, Veerle Vanacker, Frédéric Herman, Matthias Vanmaercke, Wolfgang Schwanghart, Gustavo E. Tenorio, Patrick Willems, and Gerard Govers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, 2020
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In this contribution, we explore the spatial determinants of bedrock river incision in the tropical Andes. The model results illustrate the problem of confounding between climatic and lithological variables, such as rock strength. Incorporating rock strength explicitly into river incision models strongly improves the explanatory power of all tested models and enables us to clarify the role of rainfall variability in controlling river incision rates.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, 2020
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In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019
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This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Laurent Delobbe, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5385–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, 2017
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Knowing the characteristics of extreme precipitation is useful for flood management applications like sewer system design. The potential of a 12-year high-quality weather radar precipitation dataset is investigated by comparison with rain gauges. Despite known limitations, a good agreement is found between the radar and the rain gauges. Using the radar data allow us to reduce the uncertainty of the extreme value analysis, especially for short duration extremes related to thunderstorms.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez, Patrick Willems, Abdellah Ichiba, Li-Pen Wang, Rui Pina, Johan Van Assel, Guendalina Bruni, Damian Murla Tuyls, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2361–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, 2017
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Data from 10 urban or peri-urban catchments located in five EU countries are used to analyze the imperviousness distribution and sewer network geometry. Consistent scale invariant features are retrieved for both (fractal dimensions can be defined), which enables to define a level of urbanization. Imperviousness representation in operational model is also found to exhibit scale-invariant features (even multifractality). The research was carried out as part of the UE INTERREG IV RainGain project.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, 2017
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In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Hossein Tabari, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, 2016
Vincent Wolfs, Quan Tran Quoc, and Patrick Willems
Proc. IAHS, 373, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, 2016
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Water management is constantly evolving. Trends, such as population growth, urbanization and climate change, pose new challenges to water management. We developed a new and flexible modelling approach to generate very fast models of catchment hydrology, rivers and sewer systems that can be tailored to numerous applications in water management. To illustrate the developed framework, a case study of integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium is elaborated.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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To investigate the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, three rainfall-runoff models were applied to the main catchments of the Nile Basin in Africa based on inputs covering the period from 1940 to 2003. There was close agreement between the changes in the observed and simulated overland flow from all the models. Thus, change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal.
L.-P. Wang, S. Ochoa-Rodríguez, C. Onof, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4001–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, 2015
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A new methodology is proposed in this paper, focusing on improving the applicability of the operational weather radar data to urban hydrology with rain gauge data. The proposed methodology employed a simple yet effective technique to extract additional information (called local singularity structure) from radar data, which was generally ignored in related works. The associated improvement can be particularly seen in capturing storm peak magnitudes, which is critical for urban applications.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2227–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, 2015
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Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions. This finding is vital for a number of water management and planning aspects. To give just one example, it may help in obtaining improved quantiles for flood or drought/water scarcity risk management. This is especially important under conditions of (1) questionable data quality, and (2) data scarcity. These conditions are typical of the Nile Basin and inevitably need to be addressed.
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015
A. Ochoa, L. Pineda, P. Crespo, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179–3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, 2014
D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1119–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, 2014
D. E. Mora, L. Campozano, F. Cisneros, G. Wyseure, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 631–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, 2014
M. T. Taye and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
A national-scale hybrid model for enhanced streamflow estimation – consolidating a physically based hydrological model with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks
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Landscape structures regulate the contrasting response of recession along rainfall amounts
Hydrological objective functions and ensemble averaging with the Wasserstein distance
Spatial variability in Alpine reservoir regulation: deriving reservoir operations from streamflow using generalized additive models
Regional significance of historical trends and step changes in Australian streamflow
River flooding mechanisms and their changes in Europe revealed by explainable machine learning
Changes in nonlinearity and stability of streamflow recession characteristics under climate warming in a large glaciated basin of the Tibetan Plateau
A data-driven method for estimating the composition of end-members from stream water chemistry time series
Evaporation loss estimation of the river-lake continuum of arid inland river: Evidence from stable isotopes
Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
Causal effects of dams and land cover changes on flood changes in mainland China
Can the two-parameter recursive digital filter baseflow separation method really be calibrated by the conductivity mass balance method?
Simultaneously determining global sensitivities of model parameters and model structure
Technical note: Calculation scripts for ensemble hydrograph separation
Specific climate classification for Mediterranean hydrology and future evolution under Med-CORDEX regional climate model scenarios
A line-integral-based method to partition climate and catchment effects on runoff
Technical note: A two-sided affine power scaling relationship to represent the concentration–discharge relationship
On the flood peak distributions over China
New water fractions and transit time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales, estimated from stable water isotopes in precipitation and streamflow
Does the weighting of climate simulations result in a better quantification of hydrological impacts?
A 50-year analysis of hydrological trends and processes in a Mediterranean catchment
Technical Note: On the puzzling similarity of two water balance formulas – Turc–Mezentsev vs. Tixeront–Fu
Quantifying new water fractions and transit time distributions using ensemble hydrograph separation: theory and benchmark tests
Land cover effects on hydrologic services under a precipitation gradient
Technical note: Long-term persistence loss of urban streams as a metric for catchment classification
Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China
Characterization and evaluation of controls on post-fire streamflow response across western US watersheds
Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles
Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam
Can assimilation of crowdsourced data in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?
Delineation of homogenous regions using hydrological variables predicted by projection pursuit regression
Multivariate hydrological data assimilation of soil moisture and groundwater head
On the propagation of diel signals in river networks using analytic solutions of flow equations
Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias
Recent changes in climate, hydrology and sediment load in the Wadi Abd, Algeria (1970–2010)
Technical Note: Testing an improved index for analysing storm discharge–concentration hysteresis
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Improving flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological models by parameter optimization
Time series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of north-central Portugal
Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering: evaluating the effect of ensemble size and localization on filter performance
Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria – an approach based on climate and discharge station data
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Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in southern China
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Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada
Flood-initiating catchment conditions: a spatio-temporal analysis of large-scale soil moisture patterns in the Elbe River basin
Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation
Jun Liu, Julian Koch, Simon Stisen, Lars Troldborg, and Raphael J. M. Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2871–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2871-2024, 2024
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We developed hybrid schemes to enhance national-scale streamflow predictions, combining long short-term memory (LSTM) with a physically based hydrological model (PBM). A comprehensive evaluation of hybrid setups across Denmark indicates that LSTM models forced by climate data and catchment attributes perform well in many regions but face challenges in groundwater-dependent basins. The hybrid schemes supported by PBMs perform better in reproducing long-term streamflow behavior and extreme events.
Hsing-Jui Wang, Ralf Merz, Soohyun Yang, and Stefano Basso
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4369–4384, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023, 2023
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Accurately assessing heavy-tailed flood behavior with limited data records is challenging and can lead to inaccurate hazard estimates. Our research introduces a new index that uses hydrograph recession to identify heavy-tailed flood behavior, compare severity, and produce reliable results with short data records. This index overcomes the limitations of current metrics, which lack physical meaning and require long records. It thus provides valuable insight into the flood hazard of river basins.
Jun-Yi Lee, Ci-Jian Yang, Tsung-Ren Peng, Tsung-Yu Lee, and Jr-Chuan Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4279–4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4279-2023, 2023
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Streamflow recession, shaped by landscape and rainfall, is not well understood. This study examines their combined impact using data from 19 mountainous rivers. Longer, gentler hillslopes promote flow and reduce nonlinearity, while larger catchments with more rainfall show increased landscape heterogeneity. In small catchments, the exponent decreases with rainfall, indicating less landscape and runoff variation. Further research is needed to validate these findings across diverse regions.
Jared C. Magyar and Malcolm Sambridge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 991–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-991-2023, 2023
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Measuring the similarity of distributions of water is a useful tool for model calibration and assessment. We provide a new way of measuring this similarity for streamflow time series. It is derived from the concept of the amount of
workrequired to rearrange one mass distribution into the other. We also use similar mathematical techniques for defining a type of
averagebetween water distributions.
Manuela Irene Brunner and Philippe Naveau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-673-2023, 2023
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Reservoir regulation affects various streamflow characteristics. Still, information on when water is stored in and released from reservoirs is hardly available. We develop a statistical model to reconstruct reservoir operation signals from observed streamflow time series. By applying this approach to 74 catchments in the Alps, we find that reservoir management varies by catchment elevation and that seasonal redistribution from summer to winter is strongest in high-elevation catchments.
Gnanathikkam Emmanuel Amirthanathan, Mohammed Abdul Bari, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Narendra Kumar Tuteja, and Paul Martinus Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 229–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-229-2023, 2023
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We used statistical tests to detect annual and seasonal streamflow trends and step changes across Australia. The Murray–Darling Basin and other rivers in the southern and north-eastern areas showed decreasing trends. Only rivers in the Timor Sea region in northern Australia showed significant increasing trends. Our results assist with infrastructure planning and management of water resources. This study was undertaken by the Bureau of Meteorology with its responsibility under the Water Act 2007.
Shijie Jiang, Emanuele Bevacqua, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6339–6359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, 2022
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Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
Jiarong Wang, Xi Chen, Man Gao, Qi Hu, and Jintao Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3901–3920, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3901-2022, 2022
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The accelerated climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau after 1997 has strong consequences for hydrology, geography, and social wellbeing. In hydrology, the change in streamflow as a result of changes in dynamic water storage originating from glacier melt and permafrost thawing in a warming climate directly affects the available water resources for societies of some of the most populated nations in the world.
Esther Xu Fei and Ciaran Joseph Harman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1977–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1977-2022, 2022
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Water in streams is a mixture of water from many sources. It is sometimes possible to identify the chemical fingerprint of each source and track the time-varying contribution of that source to the total flow rate. But what if you do not know the chemical fingerprint of each source? Can you simultaneously identify the sources (called end-members), and separate the water into contributions from each, using only samples of water from the stream? Here we suggest a method for doing just that.
Guofeng Zhu, Zhigang Sun, Yuanxiao Xu, Yuwei Liu, Zhuanxia Zhang, Liyuan Sang, and Lei Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-75, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We analyzed the stable isotopic composition of surface water and estimated its evaporative loss in the Shiyang River Basin. The characteristics of stable isotopes in surface water show a gradual enrichment from mountainous areas to deserts, and the evaporation loss of surface water also shows a gradually increasing trend from upstream to downstream. The study of evaporative losses in the river-lake continuum contributes to the sustainable use of water resources.
Paul Royer-Gaspard, Vazken Andréassian, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5703–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, 2021
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Most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorse the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST and which can be used with a single hydrological model calibration. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.
Wencong Yang, Hanbo Yang, Dawen Yang, and Aizhong Hou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2705–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2705-2021, 2021
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This study quantified the causal effects of land cover changes and dams on the changes in annual maximum discharges (Q) in 757 catchments of China using panel regressions. We found that a 1 % point increase in urban areas causes a 3.9 % increase in Q, and a 1 unit increase in reservoir index causes a 21.4 % decrease in Q for catchments with no dam before. This study takes the first step to explain the human-caused flood changes on a national scale in China.
Weifei Yang, Changlai Xiao, Zhihao Zhang, and Xiujuan Liang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1747–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1747-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1747-2021, 2021
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This study analyzed the effectiveness of the conductivity mass balance (CMB) method for correcting the Eckhardt method. The results showed that the approach of calibrating the Eckhardt method against the CMB method provides a
falsecalibration of total baseflow by offsetting the inherent biases in the baseflow sequences generated by the two methods. The reason for this phenomenon is the baseflow series generated by the two methods containing different transient water sources.
Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5835–5858, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, 2020
James W. Kirchner and Julia L. A. Knapp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5539–5558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5539-2020, 2020
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Ensemble hydrograph separation is a powerful new tool for measuring the age distribution of streamwater. However, the calculations are complex and may be difficult for researchers to implement on their own. Here we present scripts that perform these calculations in either MATLAB or R so that researchers do not need to write their own codes. We explain how these scripts work and how to use them. We demonstrate several potential applications using a synthetic catchment data set.
Antoine Allam, Roger Moussa, Wajdi Najem, and Claude Bocquillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4503–4521, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4503-2020, 2020
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With serious concerns about global change rising in the Mediterranean, we established a new climatic classification to follow hydrological and ecohydrological activities. The classification coincided with a geographical distribution ranging from the most seasonal and driest class in the south to the least seasonal and most humid in the north. RCM scenarios showed that northern classes evolve to southern ones with shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelt which might affect hydrologic regimes.
Mingguo Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2365–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2365-2020, 2020
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This paper developed a mathematically precise method to partition climate and catchment effects on streamflow. The method reveals that both the change magnitude and pathway (timing of change), not the magnitude alone, dictate the partition unless for a linear system. The method has wide relevance. For example, it suggests that the global warming effect of carbon emission is path dependent, and an optimal pathway would facilitate a higher global budget of carbon emission.
José Manuel Tunqui Neira, Vazken Andréassian, Gaëlle Tallec, and Jean-Marie Mouchel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1823–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1823-2020, 2020
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This paper deals with the mathematical representation of concentration–discharge relationships. We propose a two-sided affine power scaling relationship (2S-APS) as an alternative to the classic one-sided power scaling relationship (commonly known as
power law). We also discuss the identification of the parameters of the proposed relationship, using an appropriate numerical criterion, based on high-frequency chemical time series of the Orgeval-ORACLE observatory.
Long Yang, Lachun Wang, Xiang Li, and Jie Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5133–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5133-2019, 2019
Julia L. A. Knapp, Colin Neal, Alessandro Schlumpf, Margaret Neal, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4367–4388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4367-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4367-2019, 2019
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We describe, present, and make publicly available two extensive data sets of stable water isotopes in streamwater and precipitation at Plynlimon, Wales, consisting of measurements at 7-hourly intervals for 17 months and at weekly intervals for 4.25 years. We use these data to calculate new water fractions and transit time distributions for different discharge rates and seasons, thus quantifying the contribution of recent precipitation to streamflow under different conditions.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, Hua Chen, Shenglian Guo, Ping Xie, and Xiangquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4033–4050, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4033-2019, 2019
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When using large ensembles of global climate models in hydrological impact studies, there are pragmatic questions on whether it is necessary to weight climate models and how to weight them. We use eight methods to weight climate models straightforwardly, based on their performances in hydrological simulations, and investigate the influences of the assigned weights. This study concludes that using bias correction and equal weighting is likely viable and sufficient for hydrological impact studies.
Nathalie Folton, Eric Martin, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre L'Hermite, and Mathieu Tolsa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2699–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2699-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2699-2019, 2019
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The long-term study of precipitation, flows, flood or drought mechanisms, in the Réal Collobrier research Watershed, located in South-East France, in the Mediterranean forest, improves knowledge of the water cycle and is unique tool for understanding of how catchments function. This study shows a small decrease in rainfall and a marked tendency towards a decrease in the water resources of the catchment in response to climate trends, with a consistent increase in drought severity and duration.
Vazken Andréassian and Tewfik Sari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2339–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2339-2019, 2019
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In this Technical Note, we present two water balance formulas: the Turc–Mezentsev and Tixeront–Fu formulas. These formulas have a puzzling numerical similarity, which we discuss in detail and try to interpret mathematically and hydrologically.
James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 303–349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-303-2019, 2019
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How long does it take for raindrops to become streamflow? Here I propose a new approach to this old problem. I show how we can use time series of isotope data to measure the average fraction of same-day rainfall appearing in streamflow, even if this fraction varies greatly from rainstorm to rainstorm. I show that we can quantify how this fraction changes from small rainstorms to big ones, and from high flows to low flows, and how it changes with the lag time between rainfall and streamflow.
Ane Zabaleta, Eneko Garmendia, Petr Mariel, Ibon Tamayo, and Iñaki Antigüedad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5227–5241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5227-2018, 2018
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This study establishes relationships between land cover and river discharge. Using discharge data from 20 catchments of the Bay of Biscay findings showed the influence of land cover on discharge changes with the amount of precipitation, with lower annual water resources associated with the greater presence of forests. Results obtained illustrate the relevance of land planning to the management of water resources and the opportunity to consider it in future climate-change adaptation strategies.
Dusan Jovanovic, Tijana Jovanovic, Alfonso Mejía, Jon Hathaway, and Edoardo Daly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3551–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3551-2018, 2018
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A relationship between the Hurst (H) exponent (a long-term correlation coefficient) within a flow time series and various catchment characteristics for a number of catchments in the USA and Australia was investigated. A negative relationship with imperviousness was identified, which allowed for an efficient catchment classification, thus making the H exponent a useful metric to quantitatively assess the impact of catchment imperviousness on streamflow regime.
Chuanhao Wu, Bill X. Hu, Guoru Huang, Peng Wang, and Kai Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1971–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, 2018
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China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal–spatial patterns of water resources. In this paper, the Budyko-based elasticity method was used to investigate the responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China at both grid and catchment scales. The results help to better understand the hydrological effects of climate change and adapt to a changing environment.
Samuel Saxe, Terri S. Hogue, and Lauren Hay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1221–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1221-2018, 2018
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We investigate the impact of wildfire on watershed flow regimes, examining responses across the western United States. On a national scale, our results confirm the work of prior studies: that low, high, and peak flows typically increase following a wildfire. Regionally, results are more variable and sometimes contradictory. Our results may be significant in justifying the calibration of watershed models and in contributing to the overall observational analysis of post-fire streamflow response.
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Clara Mangili, and Achim Brauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5547–5581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5547-2017, 2017
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Here we present a unique 9.5 m palaeo-lacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 10 000 years in the Piànico–Sèllere basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime between 400 000 and 800 000 years ago). We analyse the palaeoflood series correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties, finding a long-range cyclicity with a period of about 2030 years superimposed onto a fractional noise.
Steve J. Birkinshaw, Selma B. Guerreiro, Alex Nicholson, Qiuhua Liang, Paul Quinn, Lili Zhang, Bin He, Junxian Yin, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1911–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017, 2017
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The Yangtze River basin in China is home to more than 400 million people and susceptible to major floods. We used projections of future precipitation and temperature from 35 of the most recent global climate models and applied this to a hydrological model of the Yangtze. Changes in the annual discharge varied between a 29.8 % decrease and a 16.0 % increase. The main reason for the difference between the models was the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and and west into the basin.
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Martin Verlaan, Leonardo Alfonso, Martina Monego, Daniele Norbiato, Miche Ferri, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 839–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-839-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-839-2017, 2017
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This study assesses the potential use of crowdsourced data in hydrological modeling, which are characterized by irregular availability and variable accuracy. We show that even data with these characteristics can improve flood prediction if properly integrated into hydrological models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens can play an active role in capturing information, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
Martin Durocher, Fateh Chebana, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4717–4729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4717-2016, 2016
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For regional flood frequency, it is challenging to identify regions with similar hydrological properties. Therefore, previous works have mainly proposed to use regions with similar physiographical properties. This research proposes instead to nonlinearly predict the desired hydrological properties before using them for delineation. The presented method is applied to a case study in Québec, Canada, and leads to hydrologically relevant regions, while enhancing predictions made inside them.
Donghua Zhang, Henrik Madsen, Marc E. Ridler, Jacob Kidmose, Karsten H. Jensen, and Jens C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4341–4357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4341-2016, 2016
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We present a method to assimilate observed groundwater head and soil moisture profiles into an integrated hydrological model. The study uses the ensemble transform Kalman filter method and the MIKE SHE hydrological model code. The proposed method is shown to be more robust and provide better results for two cases in Denmark, and is also validated using real data. The hydrological model with assimilation overall improved performance compared to the model without assimilation.
Morgan Fonley, Ricardo Mantilla, Scott J. Small, and Rodica Curtu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2899–2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, 2016
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We design and implement a theoretical experiment to show that, under low-flow conditions, observed streamflow discrepancies between early and late summer can be attributed to different flow velocities in the river network. By developing an analytic solution to represent flow along a given river network, we emphasize the dependence of streamflow amplitude and time delay on the geomorphology of the network. We also simulate using a realistic river network to highlight the effects of scale.
Zhongwei Huang, Hanbo Yang, and Dawen Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2573–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2573-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2573-2016, 2016
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The hydrologic processes have been influenced by different climatic factors. However, the dominant climatic factor driving annual runoff change is still unknown in many catchments in China. By using the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011), the elasticity of runoff to climatic factors was estimated, and the dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff change were detected at catchment scale over China.
Jørn Rasmussen, Henrik Madsen, Karsten Høgh Jensen, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2103–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2103-2016, 2016
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In the paper, observations are assimilated into a hydrological model in order to improve the model performance. Two methods for detecting and correcting systematic errors (bias) in groundwater head observations are used leading to improved results compared to standard assimilation methods which ignores any bias. This is demonstrated using both synthetic (user generated) observations and real-world observations.
Mohammed Achite and Sylvain Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1355–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1355-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1355-2016, 2016
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Changes of T, P, Q and sediment fluxes in a semi-arid basin little affected by human activities are analyzed from 40 years of measurements. T increased, P decreased, an earlier onset of first summer rains occurred. The flow regime shifted from perennial to intermittent. Sediment flux almost doubled every decade. The sediment regime shifted from two equivalent seasons of sediment delivery to a single major season regime. The C–Q rating curve ability declined due to enhanced hysteresis effects.
C. E. M. Lloyd, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Collins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 625–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-625-2016, 2016
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This paper examines the current methodologies for quantifying storm behaviour through hysteresis analysis, and explores a new method. Each method is systematically tested and the impact on the results is examined. Recommendations are made regarding the most effective method of calculating a hysteresis index. This new method allows storm hysteresis behaviour to be directly compared between storms, parameters, and catchments, meaning it has wide application potential in water quality research.
W. Hu and B. C. Si
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 571–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-571-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-571-2016, 2016
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Spatiotemporal SWC was decomposed into into three terms (spatial forcing, temporal forcing, and interactions between spatial and temporal forcing) for near surface and root zone; Empirical orthogonal function indicated that underlying patterns exist in the interaction term at small watershed scales; Estimation of spatially distributed SWC benefits from decomposition of the interaction term; The suggested decomposition of SWC with time stability analysis has potential in SWC downscaling.
Y. Chen, J. Li, and H. Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 375–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-375-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-375-2016, 2016
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Parameter optimization is necessary to improve the flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological model. A method for parameter optimization with particle swam optimization (PSO) algorithm has been proposed for physically based distributed hydrological model in catchment flood forecasting and validated in southern China. It has found that the appropriate particle number and maximum evolution number of PSO algorithm are 20 and 30 respectively.
D. Hawtree, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, R. Jacinto, J. Santos, M. E. Rial-Rivas, A.-K. Boulet, F. Tavares-Wahren, and K.-H. Feger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3033–3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3033-2015, 2015
J. Rasmussen, H. Madsen, K. H. Jensen, and J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2999–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2999-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2999-2015, 2015
C. Kormann, T. Francke, M. Renner, and A. Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015, 2015
S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, R. Kumar, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4861–4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4861-2014, 2014
S. G. Leibowitz, R. L. Comeleo, P. J. Wigington Jr., C. P. Weaver, P. E. Morefield, E. A. Sproles, and J. L. Ebersole
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3367–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3367-2014, 2014
J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1475–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1475-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1475-2014, 2014
S. Galelli and A. Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2669–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2669-2013, 2013
K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1681–1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1681-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1681-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1281–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, 2013
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