Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3405-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3405-2019
Research article
 | 
19 Aug 2019
Research article |  | 19 Aug 2019

Improving hydrological projection performance under contrasting climatic conditions using spatial coherence through a hierarchical Bayesian regression framework

Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Shida Gao, Jun Xia, Jie Chen, and Lei Cheng

Related authors

Response of active catchment water storage capacity to a prolonged meteorological drought and asymptotic climate variation
Jing Tian, Zhengke Pan, Shenglian Guo, Jiabo Yin, Yanlai Zhou, and Jun Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4853–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, 2022
Short summary
The influence of a prolonged meteorological drought on catchment water storage capacity: a hydrological-model perspective
Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Chong-Yu Xu, Lei Cheng, Jing Tian, Shujie Cheng, and Kang Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Ajami, N. K., Duan, Q. Y., and Sorooshian, S.: An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: Confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction, Water Resour. Res., 43, W01403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005wr004745, 2007. 
Bracken, C., Holman, K. D., Rajagopalan, B., and Moradkhani, H.: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Multivariate Nonstationary Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, Water Resour. Res., 54, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr020403, 2018. 
Brigode, P., Oudin, L., and Perrin, C.: Hydrological model parameter instability: A source of additional uncertainty in estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change?, J. Hydrol., 476, 410–425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.012, 2013. 
Broderick, C., Matthews, T., Wilby, R. L., Bastola, S., and Murphy, C.: Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8343–8373, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr018850, 2016. 
Cha, Y., Park, S. S., Lee, H. W., and Stow, C. A.: A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model seasonal algal variability along an upstream to downstream river gradient, Water Resour. Res., 52, 348–357, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015wr017327, 2016. 
Download
Short summary
Understanding the projection performance of hydrological models under contrasting climatic conditions supports robust decision making, which highlights the need to adopt time-varying parameters in hydrological modeling to reduce performance degradation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial coherence of time-varying parameters, which will help improve the projection performance under differing climatic conditions.