Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-635-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-635-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 25 Jan 2018
Mean transit times in headwater catchments: insights from the Otway Ranges, Australia
William Howcroft
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, 9 Rainforest Walk, Monash
University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia
Ian Cartwright
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, 9 Rainforest Walk, Monash
University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia
National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, G.P.O. Box 2100,
Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
Uwe Morgenstern
GNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, P.O. Box 368, Lower Hutt 5040, New
Zealand
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Laurent Gourdol, Michael K. Stewart, Uwe Morgenstern, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3519–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3519-2024, 2024
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Determining water transit times in aquifers is key to a better understanding of groundwater resources and their sustainable management. For our research, we used high-accuracy tritium data from 35 springs draining the Luxembourg Sandstone aquifer. We assessed the mean transit times of groundwater and found that water moves on average more than 10 times more slowly vertically in the vadose zone of the aquifer (~12 m yr-1) than horizontally in its saturated zone (~170 m yr-1).
Stephen Lee, Dylan J. Irvine, Clément Duvert, Gabriel C. Rau, and Ian Cartwright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1771–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1771-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1771-2024, 2024
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Global groundwater recharge studies collate recharge values estimated using different methods that apply to different timescales. We develop a recharge prediction model, based solely on chloride, to produce a recharge map for Australia. We reveal that climate and vegetation have the most significant influence on recharge variability in Australia. Our recharge rates were lower than other models due to the long timescale of chloride in groundwater. Our method can similarly be applied globally.
Conny Tschritter, Christopher J. Daughney, Sapthala Karalliyadda, Brioch Hemmings, Uwe Morgenstern, and Catherine Moore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4295–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4295-2023, 2023
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Understanding groundwater travel time (groundwater age) is crucial for tracking flow and contaminants. While groundwater age is usually inferred from age tracers, this study utilised two machine learning techniques with common groundwater chemistry data. The results of both methods correspond to traditional approaches. They are useful where hydrochemistry data exist but age tracer data are limited. These methods could help enhance our knowledge, aiding in sustainable freshwater management.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
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Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Zibo Zhou, Ian Cartwright, and Uwe Morgenstern
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4497–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4497-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4497-2022, 2022
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Streams may receive water from different sources in their catchment. There is limited understanding of which water stores intermittent streams are connected to. Using geochemistry we show that the intermittent streams in southeast Australia are connected to younger smaller near-river water stores rather than regional groundwater. This makes these streams more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and requires management of the riparian zone for their protection.
Ian Cartwright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 183–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-183-2022, 2022
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Using specific conductivity (SC) to estimate groundwater inflow to rivers is complicated by bank return waters, interflow, and flows off floodplains contributing to baseflow in all but the driest years. Using the maximum SC of the river in dry years to estimate the SC of groundwater produces the best baseflow vs. streamflow trends. The variable composition of baseflow hinders calibration of hydrograph-based techniques to estimate groundwater inflows.
Michael Kilgour Stewart, Uwe Morgenstern, and Ian Cartwright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6333–6338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6333-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6333-2021, 2021
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The combined use of deuterium and tritium to determine travel time distributions in streams is an important development in catchment hydrology (Rodriguez et al., 2021). This comment, however, argues that their results do not generally invalidate the truncation hypothesis of Stewart et al. (2010) (i.e. that stable isotopes underestimate travel times through catchments), as they imply, but asserts instead that the hypothesis still applies to many other catchments.
Dylan J. Irvine, Cameron Wood, Ian Cartwright, and Tanya Oliver
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5415–5424, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5415-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5415-2021, 2021
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It is widely assumed that 14C is in contact with the atmosphere until recharging water reaches the water table. Unsaturated zone (UZ) studies have shown that 14C decreases with depth below the land surface. We produce a relationship between UZ 14C and depth to the water table to estimate input 14C activities for groundwater age estimation. Application of the new relationship shows that it is important for UZ processes to be considered in groundwater mean residence time estimation.
Shovon Barua, Ian Cartwright, P. Evan Dresel, and Edoardo Daly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 89–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-89-2021, 2021
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We evaluate groundwater recharge rates in a semi-arid area that has undergone land-use changes. The widespread presence of old saline groundwater indicates that pre-land-clearing recharge rates were low and present-day recharge rates are still modest. The fluctuations of the water table and tritium activities reflect present-day recharge rates; however, the water table fluctuation estimates are unrealistically high, and this technique may not be suited for estimating recharge in semi-arid areas.
Harald Hofmann, Dean Newborn, Ian Cartwright, Dioni I. Cendón, and Matthias Raiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1293-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1293-2020, 2020
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Fresh groundwater (GW) on barrier islands is affected by GW use and precipitation variability. Mean residence times (MRTs) of GW on a sand barrier island were determined. They ranged from 37 years to more than 150 years for tritium and had a much larger range (modern to 5000 years) for carbon-14. Perched aquifer systems in the unsaturated zone and peat formations around wetlands are the most likely cause of longer MRTs, as they have a significant impact on regional recharge and flow diversion.
Michael K. Stewart, Uwe Morgenstern, Maksym A. Gusyev, and Piotr Małoszewski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4615–4627, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4615-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4615-2017, 2017
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This paper presents for the first time the effects of aggregation errors on mean transit times and young fractions estimated using tritium concentrations. Such errors, due to heterogeneity in catchments, had previously been demonstrated for seasonal tracer cycles by Kirchner (2016a). We found that mean transit times derived from tritium are just as susceptible to aggregation bias as those from seasonal tracer cycles. Young fractions were found to be almost immune to aggregation bias.
Monique Beyer, Uwe Morgenstern, Rob van der Raaij, and Heather Martindale
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4213–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4213-2017, 2017
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The determination of groundwater age can aid characterization of aquifers, providing information on groundwater mixing, flow, volume, and recharge rates. Here we assess a recently discovered groundwater age tracer, Halon-1301. Its performance as an age tracer is assessed against six other well-established, widely used age tracers in 302 groundwater samples. We show Halon-1301 reliably inferred age, thus potentially becoming a useful groundwater age tracer where other tracers are compromised.
Ian Cartwright and Uwe Morgenstern
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4757–4773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4757-2016, 2016
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This research used tritium to determine the timescales that water is stored in peatlands and eucalyptus forest catchments in upland river systems in southeast Australia. The mean transit times in the peatland catchments of less than a few years contrast with much longer transit times (years to decades) in adjacent eucalyptus catchments. The peat is susceptible to drying which renders it vulnerable to degradation and bushfire and does not represent a long-term water store to upland streams.
Ian Cartwright and Harald Hofmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3581–3600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3581-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3581-2016, 2016
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This paper uses the natural geochemical tracer Rn together with streamflow measurements to differentiate between actual groundwater inflows and water that exits the river, flows through the near-river sediments, and subsequently re-enters the river downstream (parafluvial flow). Distinguishing between these two components is important to understanding the water balance in gaining streams and in managing and protecting surface water resources.
Maksym A. Gusyev, Uwe Morgenstern, Michael K. Stewart, Yusuke Yamazaki, Kazuhisa Kashiwaya, Terumasa Nishihara, Daisuke Kuribayashi, Hisaya Sawano, and Yoichi Iwami
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3043–3058, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3043-2016, 2016
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Tritium-estimated groundwater mean transit times (MTTs) and storage volumes provide useful information for water resources management especially during droughts. In Hokkaido, we find that (1) one tritium measurement at baseflow is already sufficient to estimate MTT for some catchments, (2) the hydrogeological settings control tritium transit times of subsurface groundwater storage at baseflow, and (3) in future, one tritium measurement will be sufficient to estimate MTT in most Japanese catchments.
I. Cartwright and U. Morgenstern
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3771–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3771-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3771-2015, 2015
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This study documents the age of water that contributes to rivers in upper catchments using the radioactive tracer tritium. River water in the upper Ovens Valley (Australia) is several years to decades old and water from different parts of the catchment (e.g., soil, regolith, and groundwater) is mobilised at different flow conditions. The results indicate that these rivers are buffered against short term climate variability but are susceptible to longer-term climate and land use changes
M. Beyer, R. van der Raaij, U. Morgenstern, and B. Jackson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2775–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2775-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2775-2015, 2015
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We assess the potential of Halon-1301 as a new groundwater age tracer, which had not been assessed in detail. We determine Halon-1301 and infer age in 17 New Zealand groundwater samples and various modern waters. Halon-1301 reliably inferred age in 71% of the sites within 1 SD of the ages inferred from tritium and SF6. The remaining (anoxic) waters show reduced concentrations of Halon-1301 along with even further reduced concentrations of CFCs. The reason(s) for this need to be further assessed.
S. Kang, F. Wang, U. Morgenstern, Y. Zhang, B. Grigholm, S. Kaspari, M. Schwikowski, J. Ren, T. Yao, D. Qin, and P. A. Mayewski
The Cryosphere, 9, 1213–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1213-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1213-2015, 2015
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U. Morgenstern, C. J. Daughney, G. Leonard, D. Gordon, F. M. Donath, and R. Reeves
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-803-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-803-2015, 2015
N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, D. I. Cendón, and R. Chisari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5109–5124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5109-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5109-2014, 2014
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Periodic flooding of rivers should result in increased groundwater recharge near rivers and thus - younger and fresher groundwater near rivers. This study found the age and salinity of shallow groundwater to increase with proximity to the Tambo River in South East Australia. This appears to be due to the upwelling of older, regional groundwater closer the river. Other chemical parameters are consistent with this. This is a process that may be occurring in other similar river systems.
A. P. Atkinson, I. Cartwright, B. S. Gilfedder, D. I. Cendón, N. P. Unland, and H. Hofmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4951–4964, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4951-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4951-2014, 2014
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This research article uses of radiogenic isotopes, stable isotopes and groundwater geochemistry to study groundwater age and recharge processes in the Gellibrand Valley, a relatively unstudied catchment and potential groundwater resource. The valley is found to contain both "old", regionally recharged groundwater (300-10,000 years) in the near-river environment, and modern groundwater (0-100 years old) further back on the floodplain. There is no recharge of the groundwater by high river flows.
M. A. Gusyev, D. Abrams, M. W. Toews, U. Morgenstern, and M. K. Stewart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3109–3119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3109-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3109-2014, 2014
I. Cartwright, B. Gilfedder, and H. Hofmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 15–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-15-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-15-2014, 2014
M. C. L. Yu, I. Cartwright, J. L. Braden, and S. T. de Bree
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4907–4924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4907-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4907-2013, 2013
N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3437–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3437-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3437-2013, 2013
M. A. Gusyev, M. Toews, U. Morgenstern, M. Stewart, P. White, C. Daughney, and J. Hadfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1217-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1217-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
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We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
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Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
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We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
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This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
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A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
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Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
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We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
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Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
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Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
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An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
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The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
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The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
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By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
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Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
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Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
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Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
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Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
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Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
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Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
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A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
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Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
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Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
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Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
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We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
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In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
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Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-131, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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ET is computed from vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In Western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented with the leaf-area-index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of LAI for the ET calculation. We take a close look at the LAI-ET interaction and show the relevance to consider both, LAI and ET. Our work contributes to the understanding of the processes of the terrestrial water cycle.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
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It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
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Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024
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Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024
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We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
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Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024
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We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
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Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
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This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
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To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. In this work we investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analysis indicate that adding two vegetation is enough to improve the representation of evaporation, and the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
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Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
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Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
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Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
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In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature needed for challenging cases, associated with aridity and intermittent flow. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil/vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learned features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
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In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
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This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
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Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
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We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
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Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
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How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
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Short summary
Documenting mean transit times is critical for understanding and managing catchments. Mean transit times in six headwater catchments of the Otway Ranges, Australia, determined using tritium, range from 7 to 230 years. Tritium activities correlate well with streamflow but are difficult to predict from catchment attributes or major ion geochemistry. The long mean transit times suggest that the catchments are buffered from short-term rainfall variations.
Documenting mean transit times is critical for understanding and managing catchments. Mean...
