Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Research article
05 Sep 2016
Research article |  | 05 Sep 2016

Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

Erin Coughlan de Perez, Bart van den Hurk, Maarten K. van Aalst, Irene Amuron, Deus Bamanya, Tristan Hauser, Brenden Jongma, Ana Lopez, Simon Mason, Janot Mendler de Suarez, Florian Pappenberger, Alexandra Rueth, Elisabeth Stephens, Pablo Suarez, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Ervin Zsoter

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., and Thielen, J.: Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe, Environ. Sci. Policy, 21, 35–49,, 2012.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175,, 2013.
Bacchini, M. and Zannoni, A.: Relations between rainfall and triggering of debris-flow: case study of Cancia (Dolomites, Northeastern Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 71–79,, 2003.
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The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
Many flood disaster impacts could be avoided by preventative action; however, early action is not guaranteed. This article demonstrates the design of a new system of forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers action when a flood forecast arrives, before a potential disaster. We establish "action triggers" for northern Uganda based on a global flood forecasting system, verifying these forecasts and assessing the uncertainties inherent in setting a trigger in a data-scarce location.