Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549–3560, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549–3560, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 05 Sep 2016
Research article | 05 Sep 2016
Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action
Erin Coughlan de Perez et al.
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Cited
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding? D. MacLeod et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021
- An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe F. Dottori et al. 10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017
- Development of a Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System to Assist with Decision-Making for Floods during Typhoons S. Yang et al. 10.3390/su12104258
- Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities J. Bhardwaj et al. 10.38126/JSPG180201
- Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
- Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1080/02626667.2019.1617868
- Invited perspectives: How machine learning will change flood risk and impact assessment D. Wagenaar et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-1149-2020
- Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers G. Guimarães Nobre et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.406
- Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts T. Yang et al. 10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016
- Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability K. Guigma et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8
- Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa L. Hirons et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
- A global network for operational flood risk reduction L. Alfieri et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.014
- A framework for comparing permanent and forecast-based flood risk-reduction strategies K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137572
- Perceptions of heat-health impacts and the effects of knowledge and preventive actions by outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam S. Lohrey et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148260
- Revealing Hidden Climate Indices from the Occurrence of Hydrologic Extremes B. Renard & M. Thyer 10.1029/2019WR024951
- The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events F. Vitart & A. Robertson 10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
- Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño J. Aguirre et al. 10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x
- Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings A. Lopez et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.006
- Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience H. Steptoe et al. 10.1002/2017RG000567
- Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs N. Altay & A. Narayanan 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.001
- Mitigating Prediction Error of Deep Learning Streamflow Models in Large Data‐Sparse Regions With Ensemble Modeling and Soft Data D. Feng et al. 10.1029/2021GL092999
- Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru C. Keating et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021
- How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system? H. Cloke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a
- Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting L. Speight et al. 10.1002/wat2.1517
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
- Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction J. Hansen et al. 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.019
- Resilience in the developing world benefits everyone T. Palmer 10.1038/s41558-020-0888-8
- Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh C. Gros et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101275
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al. 10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
- Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable? A. Asghari et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-04876-6
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding? D. MacLeod et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021
- An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe F. Dottori et al. 10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017
- Development of a Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System to Assist with Decision-Making for Floods during Typhoons S. Yang et al. 10.3390/su12104258
- Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities J. Bhardwaj et al. 10.38126/JSPG180201
- Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
- Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1080/02626667.2019.1617868
- Invited perspectives: How machine learning will change flood risk and impact assessment D. Wagenaar et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-1149-2020
- Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers G. Guimarães Nobre et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.406
- Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts T. Yang et al. 10.5194/hess-20-4731-2016
- Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability K. Guigma et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8
- Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa L. Hirons et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
- A global network for operational flood risk reduction L. Alfieri et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.014
- A framework for comparing permanent and forecast-based flood risk-reduction strategies K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137572
- Perceptions of heat-health impacts and the effects of knowledge and preventive actions by outdoor workers in Hanoi, Vietnam S. Lohrey et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148260
- Revealing Hidden Climate Indices from the Occurrence of Hydrologic Extremes B. Renard & M. Thyer 10.1029/2019WR024951
- The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events F. Vitart & A. Robertson 10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
- Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño J. Aguirre et al. 10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x
- Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings A. Lopez et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.006
- Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience H. Steptoe et al. 10.1002/2017RG000567
- Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs N. Altay & A. Narayanan 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.001
- Mitigating Prediction Error of Deep Learning Streamflow Models in Large Data‐Sparse Regions With Ensemble Modeling and Soft Data D. Feng et al. 10.1029/2021GL092999
- Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru C. Keating et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2215-2021
- How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system? H. Cloke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a
- Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting L. Speight et al. 10.1002/wat2.1517
- Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods K. Bischiniotis et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101252
- Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction J. Hansen et al. 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.019
- Resilience in the developing world benefits everyone T. Palmer 10.1038/s41558-020-0888-8
- Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh C. Gros et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101275
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al. 10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
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Short summary
Many flood disaster impacts could be avoided by preventative action; however, early action is not guaranteed. This article demonstrates the design of a new system of forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers action when a flood forecast arrives, before a potential disaster. We establish "action triggers" for northern Uganda based on a global flood forecasting system, verifying these forecasts and assessing the uncertainties inherent in setting a trigger in a data-scarce location.
Many flood disaster impacts could be avoided by preventative action; however, early action is...
