Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-103
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-103

  26 Apr 2018

26 Apr 2018

Review status: this preprint was under review for the journal HESS but the revision was not accepted.

Storm surge and extreme river discharge: a compound event analysis using ensemble impact modelling

Sonu Khanal1,2,3, Nina Ridder1, Hylke de Vries1, Wilco Terink2, and Bart van den Hurk1 Sonu Khanal et al.
  • 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands
  • 2FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, 6702 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • 3Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract. Many winter deep low-pressure systems passing over Western Europe have the potential to induce significant storm surge levels along the coast of the North Sea. The accompanying frontal systems lead to large rainfall amounts, which can result in river discharges exceeding critical thresholds. The risk of disruptive societal impact increases strongly if river runoff and storm-surge peak occur near-simultaneously. For the Rhine catchment and the Dutch coastal area, existing studies suggest that no such relation is present at time lags shorter than six days. Here we re-investigate the possibility of finding near-simultaneous storm surge and extreme river discharge using an extended data set derived from a storm surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) and two hydrological river-discharge models (SPHY and HBV96) forced with conditions from a high-resolution (0.11°/12 km) regional climate model (RACMO2) in ensemble mode (16 × 50 years). We find that the probability for finding a co-occurrence of extreme river discharge at Lobith and storm surge conditions at Hoek van Holland are up to four times higher (than random chance) for a broad range of time lags (−2 to 10 days, depending on exact threshold). This highlights that the hazard of a co-occurrence of high river discharge and coastal water levels cannot be neglected in a robust risk assessment.

Sonu Khanal et al.

 
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Status: closed
Status: closed
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Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Sonu Khanal et al.

Sonu Khanal et al.

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Short summary
This study assesses the possibility of finding near simultaneous storm surge and extreme river discharge using an extended data set derived from a storm surge model and two hydrological river-discharge models forced with conditions from a highresolution climate model in ensemble model. The study highlights that the hazard of a co-occurrence of high river discharge and coastal water levels cannot be neglected in a robust risk assessment.