Articles | Volume 30, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 May 2026
Research article |
| 11 May 2026
| 11 May 2026
Reconstructed soil moisture droughts in Belgium reveal 2011–2020 was the driest decade since 1970
Katoria Lekarkar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Oldrich Rakovec
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha-Suchdol, Czech Republic
Rohini Kumar
UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Stefaan Dondeyne
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, Pass. des Déportés 2, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium
Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jawa Barat 45363, Bandung, Indonesia
Ann van Griensven
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Water Science & Engineering Department, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, the Netherlands
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2879–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2879-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2879-2026, 2026
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-881, 2026
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Pia Ebeling, Alexander Hubig, Alexander Wachholz, Ulrike Scharfenberger, Sarah Haug, Tam Nguyen, Fanny Sarrazin, Masooma Batool, Andreas Musolff, and Rohini Kumar
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 691–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-691-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-691-2026, 2026
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Robert Reinecke, Tanjila Akhter, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 523–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026, 2026
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Celray James Chawanda, Ann van Griensven, Albert Nkwasa, Jose Pablo Teran Orsini, Jaehak Jeong, Soon-Kun Choi, Raghavan Srinivasan, and Jeffrey G. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6901–6916, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6901-2025, 2025
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Water resources face more challenges from climate change and human activities. We improved global water modeling by developing a high-resolution system using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+), using automated reproducible workflow. This approach simplifies tracking the progress of global impact assessment modelling efforts. The global model will further help assess water stress hot-spots and inform sustainable water management as further improvements come.
Vishal Thakur, Yannis Markonis, Rohini Kumar, Johanna Ruth Thomson, Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Martin Hanel, and Oldrich Rakovec
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4395–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4395-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4395-2025, 2025
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Understanding the changes in water movement in earth is crucial for everyone. To quantify this water movement there are several techniques. We examined how different methods of estimating evaporation impact predictions of various types of water movement across Europe. We found that, while these methods generally agree on whether changes are increasing or decreasing, they differ in magnitude. This means selecting the right evaporation method is crucial for accurate predictions of water movement.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, Yannis Markonis, and Miroslav Trnka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3341–3358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, 2025
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We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, with clusters of 775 and 630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Pia Ebeling, Andreas Musolff, Rohini Kumar, Andreas Hartmann, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2925–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2925-2025, 2025
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 881–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-881-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-881-2025, 2025
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Our paper presents a reconstruction and analysis of the gridded P surplus in European landscapes from 1850 to 2019 at a 5 arcmin resolution. By utilizing 48 different estimates, we account for uncertainties in major components of the P surplus. Our findings highlight substantial historical changes, with the total P surplus in the EU 27 tripling over 170 years. Our dataset enables flexible aggregation at various spatial scales, providing critical insights for land and water management strategies.
Albert Nkwasa, Celray James Chawanda, Maria Theresa Nakkazi, and Ann van Griensven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-703, 2025
Preprint archived
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Limited monitoring data make it difficult to assess human impacts on freshwater quality, especially in low-income regions. To address this, we developed a global water quality model that simulates river nutrient loads (Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus). The model provides high-resolution insights into freshwater pollution, supporting ecological risk assessments and policy decisions. While some uncertainties remain, this model offers a crucial tool for addressing global water quality.
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
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This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Fanny J. Sarrazin, Sabine Attinger, and Rohini Kumar
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4673–4708, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4673-2024, 2024
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Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contamination of water bodies is a long-term issue due to the long history of N and P inputs to the environment and their persistence. Here, we introduce a long-term and high-resolution dataset of N and P inputs from wastewater (point sources) for Germany, combining data from different sources and conceptual understanding. We also account for uncertainties in modelling choices, thus facilitating robust long-term and large-scale water quality studies.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
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We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Gloria Chinwendu Okafor, Bernhard Tischbein, and Hadush Meresa
Proc. IAHS, 385, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-211-2024, 2024
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In this study, the MPR-mHM technique was applied in four data-scarce basins in Nigeria. Remotely sensed rainfall datasets were used as model forcings to evaluate the mHM capability in reproducing observed stream discharge under single and multivariable model calibration frameworks. Overall, model calibration performances displayed satisfactory outputs as evident in the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) scores across most basins.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
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Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Yannis Markonis, Oldrich Rakovec, Michal Jenicek, Riya Dutta, Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Zuzana Bešťáková, Jan Kyselý, Roman Juras, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Martin Hanel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1-2024, 2024
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The study introduces a novel benchmarking method based on the water cycle budget for hydroclimate data fusion. Using this method and multiple state-of-the-art datasets to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of water cycle changes in Czechia, we found that differences in water availability distribution are dominated by evapotranspiration. Furthermore, while the most significant temporal changes in Czechia occur during spring, the median spatial patterns stem from summer changes in the water cycle.
Arianna Borriero, Rohini Kumar, Tam V. Nguyen, Jan H. Fleckenstein, and Stefanie R. Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2989–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the uncertainty of the water transit time distribution (TTD) arising from model input (interpolated tracer data) and structure (StorAge Selection, SAS, functions). We found that uncertainty was mainly associated with temporal interpolation, choice of SAS function, nonspatial interpolation, and low-flow conditions. It is important to characterize the specific uncertainty sources and their combined effects on TTD, as this has relevant implications for both water quantity and quality.
Carolin Winter, Tam V. Nguyen, Andreas Musolff, Stefanie R. Lutz, Michael Rode, Rohini Kumar, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-303-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-303-2023, 2023
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The increasing frequency of severe and prolonged droughts threatens our freshwater resources. While we understand drought impacts on water quantity, its effects on water quality remain largely unknown. Here, we studied the impact of the unprecedented 2018–2019 drought in Central Europe on nitrate export in a heterogeneous mesoscale catchment in Germany. We show that severe drought can reduce a catchment's capacity to retain nitrogen, intensifying the internal pollution and export of nitrate.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Bahar Bahrami, Anke Hildebrandt, Stephan Thober, Corinna Rebmann, Rico Fischer, Luis Samaniego, Oldrich Rakovec, and Rohini Kumar
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6957–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6957-2022, 2022
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Leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are crucial components to carbon cycle, and are closely linked to water cycle in many ways. We develop a Parsimonious Canopy Model (PCM) to simulate GPP and LAI at stand scale, and show its applicability over a diverse range of deciduous broad-leaved forest biomes. With its modular structure, the PCM is able to adapt with existing data requirements, and run in either a stand-alone mode or as an interface linked to hydrologic models.
Sadaf Nasreen, Markéta Součková, Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Ujjwal Singh, Yannis Markonis, Rohini Kumar, Oldrich Rakovec, and Martin Hanel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4035–4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022, 2022
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This article presents a 500-year reconstructed annual runoff dataset for several European catchments. Several data-driven and hydrological models were used to derive the runoff series using reconstructed precipitation and temperature and a set of proxy data. The simulated runoff was validated using independent observed runoff data and documentary evidence. The validation revealed a good fit between the observed and reconstructed series for 14 catchments, which are available for further analysis.
Anna Msigwa, Celray James Chawanda, Hans C. Komakech, Albert Nkwasa, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4447–4468, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, 2022
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Studies using agro-hydrological models, like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to map evapotranspiration (ET) do not account for cropping seasons. A comparison between the default SWAT+ set-up (with static land use representation) and a dynamic SWAT+ model set-up (with seasonal land use representation) is made by spatial mapping of the ET. The results show that ET with seasonal representation is closer to remote sensing estimates, giving better performance than ET with static land use.
Pia Ebeling, Rohini Kumar, Stefanie R. Lutz, Tam Nguyen, Fanny Sarrazin, Michael Weber, Olaf Büttner, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Musolff
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3715–3741, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3715-2022, 2022
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Environmental data are critical for understanding and managing ecosystems, including the mitigation of water quality degradation. To increase data availability, we present the first large-sample water quality data set (QUADICA) of riverine macronutrient concentrations combined with water quantity, meteorological, and nutrient forcing data as well as catchment attributes. QUADICA covers 1386 German catchments to facilitate large-sample data-driven and modeling water quality assessments.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
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Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Ryan T. Bailey, Lise Leda Piepers, Jiri Nossent, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-169, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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A recently developed groundwater module (gwflow) coupled with the soil water assessment tool (SWAT+) is used to simulate the streamflow of the Dijle catchment, Belgium. The standalone model (SWAT+) resulted in unsatisfactory streamflow simulations while SWAT+gwflow produced streamflow that considerably mimics the measured river discharge. Furthermore, modifications to the gwflow module are made to account for the vital hydrological process (groundwater-soil profile interactions).
Robert Schweppe, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Matthias Kelbling, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, and Luis Samaniego
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 859–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-859-2022, 2022
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The recently released multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) tool enables
environmental modelers to efficiently use extensive datasets for model setups.
It flexibly ingests the datasets using user-defined data–parameter relationships
and rescales parameter fields to given model resolutions. Modern
land surface models especially benefit from MPR through increased transparency and
flexibility in modeling decisions. Thus, MPR empowers more sound and robust
simulations of the Earth system.
Albert Nkwasa, Celray James Chawanda, Jonas Jägermeyr, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 71–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022, 2022
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We present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology in a regional hydrological model using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated cropland with the associated cropping calendar and management practices. Results indicate improved temporal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulations in comparison with remote sensing data. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates in cultivated areas.
Joni Dehaspe, Fanny Sarrazin, Rohini Kumar, Jan H. Fleckenstein, and Andreas Musolff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6437–6463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6437-2021, 2021
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Increased nitrate concentrations in surface waters can compromise river ecosystem health. As riverine nitrate uptake is hard to measure, we explore how low-frequency nitrate concentration and discharge observations (that are widely available) can help to identify (in)efficient uptake in river networks. We find that channel geometry and water velocity rather than the biological uptake capacity dominate the nitrate-discharge pattern at the outlet. The former can be used to predict uptake.
Alemu Yenehun, Mekete Dessie, Fenta Nigate, Ashebir Sewale Belay, Mulugeta Azeze, Marc Van Camp, Derbew Fenetie Taye, Desale Kidane, Enyew Adgo, Jan Nyssen, Ann van Griensven, and Kristine Walraevens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-527, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Population growth, industrial expansion, and climate change are causing stress on the limited freshwater resources of the globe. Groundwater is one of the important freshwater resources. Hence, managing these limited resources is a key task for the sector experts. To do so, understanding recharge processes and its quantification is vital. In this study, three different methods using measured data are applied to estimate recharge and identify the controlling factors.
Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, and Florian Herz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3843–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 global water models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. We develop a standard writing style for the model equations. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end these equations have been adjusted, or the models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables.
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Short summary
Belgium has faced intense droughts in recent years, causing major losses across sectors. To assess their rarity, we used a hydrological model to reconstruct fifty years of soil moisture in the country. We show that 2011–2020 experienced the most severe droughts since 1971, with nearly 30% of the decade under drought. We also show that rainfall-based indicators underestimate soil moisture droughts, so including soil-moisture monitoring can give decision-makers a clearer picture of drought risks.
Belgium has faced intense droughts in recent years, causing major losses across sectors. To...
